I don't think I have anything to add to the whole Alak and me situation, I explained why Alak could either be lying about his role(claim list) or that he could be neutral as Mello. It would be such an easy free ride through the game claiming so early and making it seem like 100% TF. I can understand that Alak cannot see this possibility(he would obviously always claim to be TF), but everyone else should be able to see that possibility.
Enough of that tho, I've been focused alot on Alak and haven't really analyzed many other people so far. I'll start with Vinnie:
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 12:46:19:Sorry about the late start on my part. My thoughts are a little jumbled at the moment.
[vote]Harambey[/vote]
Dan specifically talks about voting for someone because they're online and not posting is a valid strategy, I think that Harambey is trying to deflect votes to PAF because he wants to seem useful. This sounds like something that a more experienced player might have said (Not "vote someone who's online but isn't posting", "don't try to blend in too much"). His vote coincides with Shock coming in, but that might just be a coincidence.
I've never read Death Note. Going just off of the Plot section from the Wikipedia article, is there any way in which Ryuk could be a Jester? If he was in the game, what role would he be? I'm thinking Diogo might be Independent, based off of his posts (which Shock did a great analysis of at 99). His stark denial of ALAKTORN's strategy with no backing information was odd, and his Yoshistar posts might be him trying to get lynched as a Jester. We'll see what happens with him, but I'd hold off for a couple of days. *I then read 129.* Could there be any other neutral characters?
The one thing about ALAKTORN's claim that gets me is that no one else has claimed, even those who have conceded that it was indeed the smartest strategy.
Being knowledgeable about Death Note might be a strike against people in this game, because it allows for them to theoretically beat ALAK's method and fake-claim.
Shock has shown a lot of knowledge of the game (moreso than anyone else), so he's my #2 after Harambey. I'm sticking with Harambey because:
-he's low hanging fruit (term to say no one's going to defend !Maf Harambey, I believe)
-he has made several interactions with people who have leaned him as town and as maf. A lynch would be guaranteed to give us some information.
Leone might be keeping his act up from last game because he can confuse the other faction. I doubt he's independent again.
tl;dr
-Harambey is #1 suspicious
-Shock is #2 suspicious
-Dos Santos is odd but he might be a jester
^up to 117
from 118 on:
B.Ray is suspicious to me, he's barely said anything so I won't change anything.
Like what I said near the top of my post, IsaaK's suspicion of B.Ray/PAF also seems like inexperienced maf trying to latch on to whatever they could to cause an ml.
I have some HW so I won't be as active as I would like to be. I might post mainly around 9-11 PM EST.
-Votes Harambey(reasoning seems weak to me)
-Starts to ramble about neutral roles. Don't like this, as most of the time Kira members are more
interested in finding out neutral roles earlier than TF, because it's easier to pretend to be "hunting
someone" when you actually are hunting something, just not scum.
-Doesn't seem like he read the thread in detail, as he says that shock is knowledgable when he
actually wasn't at all.
-Repeats his reasons for voting harambey. His reasons aren't really too strong and he could just be
trying to start an easy lynch train
Not liking this first post of Vinnie
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 13:00:03:Diogo wrote on 11/20/17 at 12:55:12:I actually claimed my character by writting the word "puzzle".
[vote]No Lynch[/vote]
Was definitely a terrible idea to pick him after re reading what he posted (thanks Paulo). I should reconsider my thoughts before voting again.
Can someone with DN knowledge expand on what Diogo means? This is making me think he's a neutral, perhaps like a ToS Survivor? I highly doubt he's a killing role at this point.
Again speculation about a neutral role
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 13:08:35:Diogo is Near. Most of my suspicions of him stemmed from his claim, so I'm not going to consider him too much now.
Light would be like the GF right?
L is a Town Cop?
Soichiro is a Town member?
Misa would be KF
What is Rem? I still have no idea
Higuchi is on which side? Could he be independent?
Mello and Near were already touched on, and Ryuk seems to be Dan
Any other characters?
Speculation about character/role connections. Not good for TF.
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 13:22:35:So in the manga the reader never knows who the original L is? Could L still be a role in the game?
Shock, since you are both knowledgable in mafia and Death Note could you expand on what roles these characters could have?
Too obvious? Or maybe he's being coached and told to ask those questions to seem more "noob" but maybe someone would answer?Seems more noob-Town, but I wouldn't rule it out.
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 13:36:57:I haven't been following so closely that I can remember how knowledgeable everyone is on Death Note, lol. I assumed that you would expand upon the list, and I was going to see how your list diverged from Diogo's. With N1 actions we could have a lot more to go off of.
Seemingly, people aren't going to be very open, since few people are claiming roles.
Did he ever say what he thought about the roleclaim idea? Don't think so. You are saying you don't like that people who are in favor of it haven't claimed yet, but you haven't either, so I assume you are against it? Can you explain why you like it/are against it?
Then he talks a little bit back and forth with Etch. Dunno what to make of that.
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 13:59:57:Great, I can appreciate that. What was your feeling on Leone's post, and how he has the same gimmick as the last game, where he was the SK? That was another reason why I was looking into the possibility of independents in the rolelist.
Neutral role hunting
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 14:14:50:Diamond, why is your vote still from the RVS? You should at least unvote
Filler
Then more Etch talking. Seems easy for Vinnie to "play the good guy" here by trying to argue with etch's random shit.
Vinnie927 wrote on 11/20/17 at 17:08:56:Dan's a genius if he came up with a role that could excuse Etch's game play. Is he like a Jester who wins if he's night killed?
More neutral role hunting.
Looks pretty terrible to me. More than 50% of his posts are trying to hunt neutral - which isn't scummy per se - but so much of it seems off to me. On top of that mostly low effort posts, which is a sign of trying to stay under the radar. I think he will have the honor of getting the famous Alak-to-vote from me
unvotevote Vinnie927
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