Shock
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Sorry I haven't been around much. I'm back again for a little while.
I went over your math, ALAK, and it checks out to me. Assuming there's 1 KF left in Zoran/IsaaK/Diamond/TYG, then Zoran is, by a significant margin, the most likely KF.
My 2nd place would go to TYG: I'm still not convinced fully about his Watari claim. Here's why.
The following characters seem to be the most significant characters in the anime who are trying to take down Kira:
L, Near, Mello, Watari, Soichiro, Matsuda, Raye Penbar, Naomi Misora, Aizawa, Mogi, and other more minor characters.
If the Watari and Soichiro claims are legitimate, KF would be really tightly squeezed for (believable) claimspace. For the sake of balance, I'm guessing Dan would leave some major character open for KF. Watari seems like a reasonable candidate to me. If Zoran somehow flips TF, then my guess is that KF didn't have a safe claim list D1 (think back to Zwiebel's hostility to the idea of open claiming), but then learned Watari was a safe claim N1 by using some kind of ability (Shinigami eye deal?). TYG learns that Watari is a safe claim, but he doesn't communicate with B. Ray (being gone for the whole game mostly up to this point), and just claims it. Earlier, B. Ray has to spend some time at the beginning of the day to think of reasonable fake role info for claiming Watari, and neutral PAF beats him to the claim. B. Ray claims Watari anyway, hoping to look better than PAF and be believed as Watari. But then TYG returns from out of nowhere and the CCC ensues.
I definitely find it more likely though that Zoran and B. Ray are the final KF and Zoran's trying to talk his way out of a lynch now to live another day and try to convince an ALAK-less town that he's good. I can respect the effort.
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