ALAKTORN wrote on 11/23/17 at 01:45:07:Leone wrote on 11/23/17 at 01:29:46:I'd also put likelihood of a third remaining kira at 25%, tops (weighing each possible/likely/logical setup (10/4,9/5,9/4/1,8/4/2) equally), less so when you consider there were only 4 true kira in the anime.
Going by that logic if you disregard Neutrals it’s 50/50 though, and the info so far tells me it’s more likely for there to not be Neutrals than the opposite.
You're confusing boolean statements and probability. You're (feel free to clarify) making the statement that "either the game has 4 KI or 5 KI", a valid boolean proposition under our shared assumptions, but you're conflating that with there being 50/50 likelihood of either option, which is non-boolean and probabilistic. In making this conflation, you're missing the point of the text you quoted.
My argument is non-boolean, in that I provide three scenarios where 4 kira exist and one scenario where 5 exist, and weigh each possible setup equally as my null because I have no concrete knowledge to begin with in assessing which of the four scenarios I proposed is likely the case.
I then followed up with two subjective arguments (only 4 kira and OCD-balance) to attempt to decrease the probability that the game is in a state where 5 KI exist.
I agree that neutrals are less likely so far based on what's flipped, and that serves to collapse the probability of game state further, such that the following setups, in order of most likely to least likely, if we accept all arguments put forth, as:
10/4 > 8/4/2 ~= 9/4/1 > 9/5
Working forward from the null, this means 9/5 probability, aka a gamestate with 5 total KI, is anywhere from slightly to appreciably less than 25%.
Diamond would be proud of your efforts, though!
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