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theyounggun Ex Member	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #950 - 08/26/17 at 19:41:27 I think the Lafungo role theory is really interesting but it's not something that seems guaranteed enough to use for solving the game. Idk
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theyounggun Ex Member	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #951 - 08/26/17 at 19:42:38 Payje glitche
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theyounggun Ex Member	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #952 - 08/26/17 at 19:43:00 Double glitch nice
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #953 - 08/26/17 at 19:47:44

LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 19:41:27:

I think the Lafungo role theory is really interesting but it's not something that seems guaranteed enough to use for solving the game. Idk

No, it's not going to solve the game. But it's another interpretation of what occurred during N1, which is why I want EVERYONE TO SAY WHAT THEY THINK HAPPENED.

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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:

You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #954 - 08/26/17 at 20:01:20

Sportsguy:

Explains his EoD1 vote:
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:

I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian. Simple as that. I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them. Those two were biggest town leans. And i posted that multiple times.

Wanted to wait for everyone else to make wagons before jumping on one at the end. Thought PAF was scummier than Brian.

Has not discussed how the EoD1 votes influenced his reads of TvK, Lewis, or Brian. Has not discussed N1.

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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:

You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.

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B.Ray Elite Offline I Love Mark 2.0! missed 2707 mts Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #955 - 08/26/17 at 20:08:38 Best guess on what happened N1: Mafia killed Dan, neutral stabbed TVK. He might have been stabbed and healed but something like this. But like I said I don't have any experience with this stuff this being my first Mafia game on the forums and all, I've never had to interpret night activity before.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #956 - 08/26/17 at 20:08:59

EVERYONE NEEDS TO READ THIS POST AND #942.

TVK D2 SHIT (orange wall coming up next cuz I think it's important, given his proximity to TVK's interactions.)

712 - responded to it already:
>pushes orange, thira immediately
>says this:
Quote:

namely Orange and B.Ray. Do you think they mare more likely to be scum after the flips? And which one of the two is more likely to be scum? Keep in mind that Orange's only vote in the day was on Dan (confirmed town) and B.Ray's only vote was on PAF (confirmed town).

^^^supports my crazy-ass mislynch-chain theory...

>then says this
Quote:

And then I'll also want to give some extra attention to Leone, Zoran and Zwiebel who have voted both PAF and Dan throughout the day.

...but doesn't follow up with serious pressure on us, atleast as far as ive seen thus far

715 - says he changed vote to save dan but dan wasnt an option w/o ppl wagoning him from my randomness
716 - tepid suggestion that john got me/timur townleads wrong
719 - promise of following inactivity
720 - says votechange was a mistake
722 - agrees with john then pushes for attention on orange/bray (go figure.)
724 - reads: orange/bray scum, john/tyg town (though he pressured tyg previous day for bad logic/etc and hasnt made any post abt him since), sporty/thira/zoran/timur neutral, me unknown (whatever the fuck that means)
731 - hits thira for pafvote D1 and subsequent disappearance
732 - hits thira for being glad about paf lynch, then pushes for read on bray
734, 735 - slams orange hard for calling out thira on being glad about mislynch, asks for self-defense and "answers" to posed questions (though tvk didnt ask any, directly)
742 - bodyslams orange for senseless posts, then says this:
Quote:

My goodness, did your mafia buddies ask you to be as suspicious as possible today?

^^^which I find fucking hilarious bcuz I'm starting to think, just from tvk's interactions w/ orange, that tvk/orange are m/m and orange is coached (tvk even histed at orange being coached D1 XD ), in line with my hypothesis I highlighted on D1

743 - asks sportsguy for updated reads, then framed this question really fuckin weirdly:
Quote:

Do you perhaps have a scumread that's not named Orange or B.Ray?

745 - pushes for more info from sports on wagonomics thoughts
748 - fucking bodyslams another orange post, accuses him of ignoring his questions, shotguns more questions his way... ... omg this back-and-forth is so fucking contrived, TVK would never tunnel like this while ignoring EVERYONE ELSE, FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
750 - shotguns bray for scenarios, reads, and scenario-reads
756 - another shred of an orange post.

TVK: you said this.
Quote:

I like gut feelings.

My gut is that you/orange is m/coached m, and you're hard-bussing so when orange is lynched and flips maf you get away with it scot-free and get to keep plotting mislynches/nk's.

757 - pushes orange for more answers
760 - says bray=biggest scumread with little explanation, then pushes bray for more reasons that orange=maf (this could be so if he successfully pushes a mislynch on bray today [provided bray=town; you're getting a wall of analysis just like this too bray] he gets to bus-lynch orange then his record is clean, and he got off another mislynch first)
762 - just says "Okay" at orange's stupidly contrived reason for being away at EOD, despite that he accused orange of contrived shit during D1??? then asks for reads especially on bray.
792 - justifies paf wagon to john then laments how he couldnt get bray wagon going D1
793 - votes Bray

-------

OKAY SO

CONTINUED THEMES:
>targeting only low-hanging fruit
>pushing hard for bray lynch
>the whole Orange thing

ALSO THIS:

READ ORANGE POSTS IN THE LOW-POWER MAFIA GAME AND FROM OTHER THREADS ACROSS THE FORUM.
COMPARE THEM TO HIS POSTS NOW. NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE? NOW COMPARE THEM WITH TVK'S POST FORMATTING THIS GAME. SEE THE SIMILARITIES??????Q!?Q?!?!?!!!?!!??!/1

this, along with EVERYHTING ELSE i pointed out, looks like a DEAD-FUCKING-GIVEAWAY OF COACHING.

oh yeah, and because I want actual input from you dumbfucks, let's do this to stimulate some conversation, shall we?

[b][vote]TVK[/vote][/vote]

if I find someone scummier in my upcoming walls ill vote them instead, easy enough. the more of tvk's stuff I read tho, the worse he looks.

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johnboy81918 King Offline punched 6972 kiddies Atlanta, GA Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #957 - 08/26/17 at 20:09:00 Orange: Has not discussed how the EoD1 votes influenced his reads of Sportsguy, TvK, Lewis, and Brian. Has not discussed N1.
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Leone Titan Offline Curious. helped 4390 people København, soon Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #958 - 08/26/17 at 20:09:30 fuck, of all the things to mess up on in that post... [vote]TVK[/vote]
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Leone Titan Offline Curious. drank 4390 beers København, soon Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #959 - 08/26/17 at 20:11:03 I'd do orange next but I think walls on timur rn will be more helpful, bcuz he's so unrelated to tvk/orange/bray/paf/thira/etc. Then prolly zoran afterward... god those walls will be fun to dissect. if one of these fags comes across scummier than tvk ill switch my vote
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Leone Titan Offline Curious. 4390 sex records København, soon Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #960 - 08/26/17 at 20:29:07 john i can see you're the only one up rn, thoughts? i dont wanna go and post 11-in-a-row alone again (also before analyzing you you're my biggest townlean, so just take that for what it's worth, if anything lol)
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #961 - 08/26/17 at 20:37:19

Leone wrote on 08/26/17 at 20:29:07:

john i can see you're the only one up rn, thoughts?

i dont wanna go and post 11-in-a-row alone again Smiley

(also before analyzing you you're my biggest townlean, so just take that for what it's worth, if anything lol)

I'll start replying to other things after I finish up with finding everyone's responses to the pressing questions (EoD1 and N1 discussions). Like I said in my conspiracy theory post though: *if* I'm on the right track, TvK isn't worth a lynch (he'll probably die whenever he isn't saved). Also, *if* I'm on the right track, anything that increases TvK's scum-level definitely increases Brian's as well due to EoD1.

If I'm wrong on my conspiracy theory, then I still think that TvK was attacked by scum and that obviously is a huge boost in towncred. This boost in towncred (from what I believed was a scum attack) is the only reason I didn't include TvK in the scum department when I posted reads to open D2.

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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:

You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #962 - 08/26/17 at 20:39:02

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 20:37:19:

Leone wrote on 08/26/17 at 20:29:07:

john i can see you're the only one up rn, thoughts?

i dont wanna go and post 11-in-a-row alone again Smiley

(also before analyzing you you're my biggest townlean, so just take that for what it's worth, if anything lol)

I'll start replying to other things after I finish up with finding everyone's responses to the pressing questions (EoD1 and N1 discussions). Like I said in my conspiracy theory post though: *if* I'm on the right track, TvK isn't worth a lynch (he'll probably die whenever he isn't saved). Also, *if* I'm on the right track, anything that increases TvK's scum-level definitely increases Brian's as well due to EoD1.

If I'm wrong on my conspiracy theory, then I still think that TvK was attacked by scum and that obviously is a huge boost in towncred. This boost in towncred (from what I believed was a scum attack) is the only reason I didn't include TvK in the scum department when I posted reads to open D2.

yeah and if I'm right then your conspiracy theory doesn't matter and TvK deserves the lynch anyhow Grin

(I'll go into detail on that post eventually <3 )

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #963 - 08/26/17 at 20:39:36

Third:

Briefly mentions N1 here:
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:04:24:

The Dan NK doesn't make sense other than to frame Leone or to make us think they're framing Leone to buy Leone more time. Probably more to it, like I said I'm gonna do some rereading

Provides possible reason for Dan being killed.

Mentions EoD1 here:
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 20:51:21:

end of day rush:

-Zwiebel hates BRay lynch, thinks maf are orchestrating it
-Dan also hates BRay lynch
-TYG loves Leone's giant wall of insanity, straight up wagons his vote
-Leone, for the first time, is detrimental with the craziness and just praises RNG repeatedly
-TvK chooses PAF

No stance on the votes, just a summary here.

Mentions N1 again:
Thiradell wrote on 08/26/17 at 13:27:30:

who tried to kill this guy overnight? gonna be a shame if he dies night 2

Asks the same question we've been asking since D2 started.

Third, please tell us how the EoD1 votes influenced your reads of Sportsguy, TvK, Lewis, and Brian. Additionally, what do you think happened N1?

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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:

You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.

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Leone Titan Offline Curious. ate 4390 donuts København, soon Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #964 - 08/26/17 at 20:39:42 on the conspiracy theory post I mean, hue
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Leone Titan Offline Curious. 4390 holabolas København, soon Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #965 - 08/26/17 at 20:46:03 also for the like 9th time hi tyg i see u there not posting
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Leone Titan Offline Curious. 4390 days karting København, soon Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #966 - 08/26/17 at 20:54:27 @john on 939 you responded to the sg thing i remembered wrong lol
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #967 - 08/26/17 at 20:56:32

Lewis:

Explains EoD1 vote:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 01:47:23:

Switched the vote to Dan because I thought the Dan blitz wagon might actually be happening since Leone was pushing for it and was asking people. I did not feel comfortable with the lynch being decided by rng and no one was switching to b ray.

Again, I don't understand the reasoning. There was no reason to believe the Dan blitz was happening (nobody else voted Dan around that time). Wanted to avoid rng (apparently it was better to have a 0% chance of lynching Brian than 50%?).

Further explanation:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 11:15:35:

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 04:37:33:

LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 01:47:23:

Hey just catching up now. It's late here so I might not get all the way.

@john #709
Switched the vote to Dan because I thought the Dan blitz wagon might actually be happening since Leone was pushing for it and was asking people. I did not feel comfortable with the lynch being decided by rng and no one was switching to b ray.

But you hadn't been on Dan on all day. If you really thought he was a better lynch, you had time to advocate for that. Instead, you went from 50% chance of Brian getting lynched to 100% chance of PAF getting lynched...by trying to "avoid rng" all you did was choose to lynch PAF who you also hadn't voted on at all during the day.

I didn't feel that it was a 100% chance that the lynch would be paf, and I did feel that Dan did not look good which I had actually mentiomed. Also I was trusting Leone that maybe the b ray lynch wasn't the best and the Dan one could actually happen.

Essentially repeats previous claim.

Briefly mentions N1:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 11:34:36:

@Leone #858 oh shit Dan being bodyguard actually makes sense. TvK as a kill target makes a lot more sense than Dan.

Thinks TvK was targeted and Dan protected him? If so, how/why was TvK attacked and healed?

More N1 discussion:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 19:22:26:

I think TvK as a kill target would have made more since than Dan because Dan was someone who would have gotten heat today from a lot of people especially with his PAF vote again. There's no reason for mafia to kill him, meanwhile TvK was on no one's radar as mafia. So Leone's theory about Dan being bodyguard just makes sense to me.

I don’t think TvK is guaranteed town from that in case I'm wrong but it gives me more of a town read on him rather than no read.

Gives TvK towncred for being attacked - admittedly this is how I felt about the attack first, until very recently. However, I disagree with the statement that "TvK was on no one's radar" because his EoD1 vote was scummy as fuck. I don't think he was strong enough of a scumread for any townie to launch a night attack against him, but he was definitely on my radar so I have to assume he was on others' as well.

Lewis, please discuss how the EoD1 votes influenced your reads of Sportsguy, TvK, and Brian. Also, if you are leaning towards the bodyguard theory for N1, how did TvK get hurt/healed?

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #968 - 08/26/17 at 21:16:45

Timur:

First time bringing up any of the EoD votes:
Zwiebel wrote on 08/26/17 at 06:30:21:

After all this, I'm still unsure about TYG...he did some things that make me think he could be scum, but all this zig-zagging...I don't know if "Maf TYG" would have the guts to change opinion so often on the day and try to join a blitzwagon...

Unsure about Lewis, thinks it's not likely that maf!Lewis would try to blitz at EoD.

Discusses N1:
Zwiebel wrote on 08/26/17 at 10:56:32:

@Leone

Since you were on that subject already, I thought about the wording of shock too. Thing is, do you really think a Townie would "stab" TvK on N1 without there being much of a case against him? I think chances are slim. On top of that, vigilante normally "shoots" his targets too...

Also I don't get your bodyguard point, bodyguard role protects people and not kill them...

The most likely explanation for me is that either Maf have some sort of extra kill to use(I doubt they would permanently have 2 kills....that would be broken) or that there is some sort of SK in the game. SK would also fit with the wording "stabbed".

Then again, I still have no clue why Maf would kill Dan, in my mind it would make much more sense that if there's an SK, he would've been the one to kill Dan and Maf tried to kill TvK.

Don't know if we can really take that wording so serious.

Doesn't think Shock's wording is as meaningful as Leone (I agree). Thinks that Maf probably used 2 kills, but unsure why they'd go for Dan given how much suspicion he was under D1 (I also agree that Maf would be unlikely to use kill on Dan). Brings up possibility of SK as neutral faction - interesting idea.

Talks about EoD1 votes here:
Zwiebel wrote on 08/26/17 at 18:46:41:

Quote:

Sportsguy, Dan, TvK, and Lewis *all* chose to save Brian, resulting in PAF's mislynch. How do these votes influence your views of the 3 who survived N1? How do these votes influence your views of Brian?

1st question: Depends on the alignment of Brian

If Brian is maf, technically all of them would look bad for the late switching and I am pretty certain that 1 of the 3 is Maf trying to save their buddy. However, for reasons I already explained, I don't think TvK and Brian can be Maf for the fact that TvK pushed so hard for a Brian wagon, when he had no reason to do that if he was Maf. So I'd say either Lewis or Sportsguy could very well be Maf in that scenario.

If Brian is Town, then I would take back my Town lean on TvK, since my argument on him relies on the assumption that Brian is Maf. The other 2, I don't know in that case...but honestly, if we lynch Brian and he flips Town I think we're probably fucked anyway.

2.d Question: I already explained why I think the votes make me think that Brian is Maf, so I won't repeat myself.

Believes at least 1 of the three (Sportsguy, TvK, or Lewis) is scum saving maf!Brian.

Pretty good discussion of all the points I'm after.

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #969 - 08/26/17 at 21:27:50

Brian:

Discussing EoD1 votes:
B.Ray wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:38:07:

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:22:07:

Brian, I would like you to address this specifically:

With 20 minutes left before EoD, you had the most votes on you (voters were me, TvK, Lewis, and PAF). If you are a townie, there are 2 scenarios here:
- some scum is already on you. Why would those scum move to secure a PAF mislynch instead? Either way, scum would get a mislynch if you are town. Why wouldn't they let the townies choose which of you dies?
- no scum are already on you. Why would scum *not* join this, the leading wagon? Who do you think the scum were on at this point if none are on you? Do you think all 3 wagons (you, Dan, PAF) were town and scum just didn't care which mislynch they got?

The main point is this: given that you were the leading wagon with 20 minutes to go, why would people (TvK and Lewis) leave your wagon to secure another lynch instead? Were they innocent, fooled townies?

Yes, great point. I trust TVK and Lewis a ton now. Obviously I was wrong about PAF and right on Dan. If 2or 3 townies are going at it and leading the votes, what is mafia going to do? Sit back and say literally nothing. I think we need to go back and see if any players that are usually active were quiet around that time. To me the fact that lots of people were silent when the potential orange wagon was discussed make orange look bad to me.

Trusts TvK and Lewis for jumping off his wagon (despite them both jumping onto townies).

Discussing N1:
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 20:08:38:

Best guess on what happened N1: Mafia killed Dan, neutral stabbed TVK. He might have been stabbed and healed but something like this. But like I said I don't have any experience with this stuff this being my first Mafia game on the forums and all, I've never had to interpret night activity before.

Thinks scum launched the attack on Dan, and that a neutral player attacked TvK (Timur's idea of SK).

Brian, you discussed how TvK and Lewis's EoD votes changed your reads of them, but what about Sportsguy's vote, how did that change your read of him?

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #970 - 08/26/17 at 21:32:34

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 20:39:36:

Third:

Briefly mentions N1 here:
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:04:24:

The Dan NK doesn't make sense other than to frame Leone or to make us think they're framing Leone to buy Leone more time. Probably more to it, like I said I'm gonna do some rereading

Provides possible reason for Dan being killed.

Mentions EoD1 here:
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 20:51:21:

end of day rush:

-Zwiebel hates BRay lynch, thinks maf are orchestrating it
-Dan also hates BRay lynch
-TYG loves Leone's giant wall of insanity, straight up wagons his vote
-Leone, for the first time, is detrimental with the craziness and just praises RNG repeatedly
-TvK chooses PAF

No stance on the votes, just a summary here.

Mentions N1 again:
Thiradell wrote on 08/26/17 at 13:27:30:

who tried to kill this guy overnight? gonna be a shame if he dies night 2

Asks the same question we've been asking since D2 started.

Third, please tell us how the EoD1 votes influenced your reads of Sportsguy, TvK, Lewis, and Brian. Additionally, what do you think happened N1?

They didn't really influence my reads. N1 I think mafia killed Dan and somebody else tried to kill TvK

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johnboy81918 King Offline 6972 days karting Atlanta, GA Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #971 - 08/26/17 at 21:35:46 Nearly time for me to go to bed...Third I see you just replied to my questions, thanks. Could you also reply to #923 at some point?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #972 - 08/26/17 at 21:42:53

Actually before i get into sportsguy i'd like to point out that your theory changed my opinion of the TVK/ziegel situation. i still think it's likely 1/2 of them are scum (leaning towards Zwiebel) honestly at the time of the question i have no clue why i didn't pick up on the fact they switched their vote to town. i agree that would obviously make them look worse.

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Thiradell Elite Offline mmmmk hit 6357 moles Denver Gender:	Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2 Reply #973 - 08/26/17 at 21:45:07 re: 923, I thought you didn't give TvK enough credit for pushing the Brian wagon. If you go back and read him there would've been a wagon if a couple more people had been down I'll be on tomorrow, done for tonight
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #974 - 08/26/17 at 21:50:29

Sportsguy's change of vote did not send alarm bells off in my head. i belive he voted for thirdadell very early and likely intended on changing his vote from the beginning, seems like that was a lot of people's strategy we can talk about wagon stuff all day and try to figure out which wagon is legit or which one is just bad town reads but if we are dealing with an experienced mafia they will make it very hard to guess.
I want to cut the mafia off at the source.

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