no control wrote on 08/26/17 at 16:31:21:


[vote]No control[/vote]

You are my biggest mafia suspect based on your first post on D2.  And it seems you are going after me more than some others in this game.

I may be back in the morning before i go to work, but I WILL NOT BE HERE FOR EOD.  i get off work right when the day ends and can't check it from there.  I work every other wknd, so it was bad timing for me.  I'm voting for who i think has the best chance of being mafia.  


edited to bold vote

Leone wrote on 08/26/17 at 12:14:17:


I didn't even read TvK's post on that before writing mine.

Thank you good sir

Orange, i'd love to hear specifics from you on what I said that's so scummy?  Ideally Day 2 if you're youre up to date on what's been happening today

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/26/17 at 16:31:42:

Did you even see how the Brian wagon started? I'm well aware of the fact that D1 bandwagons are usually wrong...I literally made a post saying exactly that. So, I used that motivation to try to start a wagon that *wasn't* Dan or PAF (the two main D1 wagons...guess what, both town!). That wagon ended up being Brian - it turned into the leading wagon with 20 minutes to go, until you, Dan, TvK, and Lewis all voted to save Brian and lynch PAF instead. How does that wagon behavior make Brian seem townie?

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/26/17 at 16:47:12:

WOW - these are your reasons for voting him? What content in his posts did you not like? And voting someone for just for pressuring you is really fucking scummy.

Everything you've done so far today has taken you from (neutral, maybe very slightly scummy) to definitely scummy, in my eyes. And yes, I know you're scumreading me. I'd be happy to see anything of mine you view as scummy, please be specific.

TvK:

Claims EoD1 vote was to save Dan.
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:31:56:

I bring up that his decision had nothing to do with Dan and everything to with choosing between PAF/Brian.
He agrees.
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:39:27:


No input on N1, other than being thankful for being saved. TvK, I know you have the most biased N1 perspective, but I'd still like to know what your thoughts are.

Quote:


1st question: Depends on the alignment of Brian

If Brian is maf, technically all of them would look bad for the late switching and I am pretty certain that 1 of the 3 is Maf trying to save their buddy. However, for reasons I already explained, I don't think TvK and Brian can be Maf for the fact that TvK pushed so hard for a Brian wagon, when he had no reason to do that if he was Maf. So I'd say either Lewis or Sportsguy could very well be Maf in that scenario.

If Brian is Town, then I would take back my Town lean on TvK, since my argument on him relies on the assumption that Brian is Maf. The other 2, I don't know in that case...but honestly, if we lynch Brian and he flips Town I think we're probably fucked anyway.

2.d Question: I already explained why I think the votes make me think that Brian is Maf, so I won't repeat myself.

I also alredy explained my thoughts about N1.

Also, I like Thirds posts today. Leaning more in favor of him being Town for now.

Zwiebel wrote on 08/26/17 at 18:46:41:

Thanks for putting things here, this'll make it easier when I try to summarize your responses. I agree regarding Third as well, definitely leaning town right now after what he's done so far this day.

This series of posts, deconstructing one person at a time, shall be structured in the following way:

- summary of important D1 stuff
- summary of/responses to D2 stuff

I'll start my player walls post series on TVK cuz I'm most suspicious about how he looks in broad conduct.

I NEED TO STRESS, anything said here about other players does NOT have anything to do with them, or with my perceptions of them, merely the person in question's conduct with them.

D1 shit

20 - comments how 3/6 'random' votes on him
22 - reply to me, ending meme stage helps get things moving
26 - responses to me and paf
42 - hits paf for being suspicious of Dan speculating about me
44 - hits me for not asking a question of more ppl
54 - grills Zoran for agreeing with John exactly
66 - absolutely shreds orange's opening post
67 - questions zoran's reasoning on votes
82 - questions paf and indicates my posting isnt alignment-indicative
85 - goes after orange again, asks him to comment on more than just TVK's own response to him
86 - defends me from Dan thinking i'm jester
92 - calls my logic town-perspective (more defending me)
94 - reverses and takes my latest post, a read on paf=noob town, calls it jester w/o explanation
95 - grills me for reading paf noob town
99 - yet another post grilling me on my paf town read
105 - defended my paf vote, calling the logic behind it townish
108 - responds to me defending his attack on orange's shittiness when I comment it could be noob town, then blames Dan's tunneling of me on myself
189 - Third, TYG null reads, still my fault for dan's tunneling, then goes after third for not posting reads BUT says he likes third's SG vote w/o explanation
191 - same theme as 108 basically then hits me for switching my vote off paf
192 - grills orange
193 - votes sportsguy w/o explanation or prior read on him
203 - plants the suggestion that paf=maf
204 - votes PAF (to apply pressure, he claims)
217 - misses the existence of 3rd-party factions
218 - grills PAF
264 - "random votes to apply pressure stimulate discussion", then explains reasoning to get orange active
265, 266 - "I like my paf vote cuz he reacted 'badly' to TVK/Zoran votes on him"
307 - asks for ppls' reads on paf, then uses paf quotes to build a case against the lad ("he has bad reads", "he's inconsistent", "he assumes dan=scum")
308 - grills paf for not asking questions
309 - disagrees w/ dan about my identity (I saw this as town/neutral action at the time cuz I thought dan was scum)
310 - asks b ray for content thus far
326 - pushes dan to use his vote

328 - looks weird to me, commenting on this one more than some others cuz I missed weirdnesses about it:
Quote:

^328, 2 things stand out:

>Asks if his reasoning appears town to Orange (looks weird, because choice of words)
>Asks if PAF looks worse now (again looks weird, from choice of words)
TVK is someone who understands the power of suggestion, and imo these ^ look bad, given paf=town.

390 - claims PAF's more confident as town than he is this game (appeal to meta)
396 - grills orange for flip-flopping and jumping on Dan wagon, then says orange would be a good high-information lynch candidate, despite orange's post number being countable on 1 hand at this point
399 - pushes paf to be more assertive then picks out a sentence paf said and twists it into paf being scum (namely, paf not liking zoran/tvk votes on him)
401 - doubles down on "town!paf=confident and he's not confident this game"
403 - slams orange for his weird unvote then states orange=good lynch today
414 - asks paf for orange read
416 - asks paf if john still looks town despite him not using his vote yet
419 - asks paf about reads on dan in relation to tyg and about why he has his vote on dan (sufgests via question it's "only to keep yourself alive")
421 - goes after BRay for weird reasoning and asks him about his perspective on PAF/TVK relation
423 - asks BRay why he still thinks Orange is neutral, suggests through questions that orange=maf
425 - complains that no wagons have alot of votes (clear wagons silence discussion on d1, imo this d1 was good precisely because there was so much shit said)
433 - pressures BRay to use his vote, then asks this super-scummy (to me) question that nobody else commented on at the time:
Quote:

This dichotomy contains the other 2 ppl TVK has been hounding on this entire day.
439 - asks orange where he's at vote-wise
446 - hits paf for not meta-ing us
451 - laments that we dont have any good wagons and then calls Orange's wagon this:
Quote:

I think this is really, really weird... can't quite place my finger on it but it looks like he slipped on a narrative he's been trying to push. Further, this post comes in response to his failure thus far to push any wagon so far (even though he's only done one vague summary on paf and no summaries on others' scumminess)
498 - defends 433 after I dig into it: the dichotomy he framed bray's vote as when pushing bray to vote orange/paf as him trying to help bray, then claimed (to summarize) orange just looks dubious and he was upset bray hadnt commented on orange
510 - clarifies "no big wagons at this point is bad" then makes this tepid argument for why one of (paf, dan, orange) = scum:
Quote:

it feels like he's reaching here.
513 - hits bray for indecisiveness
514 - slams bray's "let's vote shitty town" argument
519 - slams paf for indecisiveness
521 - hints at paf/orange being m/m
523 - follows up condemning bray for quick jump to pafwagon
524 - hints that he now thinks bray may be mafia and paf/bray are t/m
525 - votes bray despite 3 posts ago paf=biggest scumread
528 - thinks orange is coached
530 - praises paf for bray scum read
531 - asks paf if he thinks maf sheeped off zoran (paf's biggest townlean now) to wagon paf cuz they were, quote, "going after low-hanging fruit" (this might indicate tvk's view of paf at this point, similar to orange and probably bray... notice a theme here????)
536 - suggests orange=maf, says this:
Quote:
despite him saying "voting for orange isn't suspicious at all" in a previous post, then doubles down on paf/orange m/m possibility claiming orange vote on dan=scum protecting scum
540 - hits tyg for voting a scumread another tyg scumread was voting for, asks for more info
541 - agrees with tyg that paf/orange m/m possible and asks tyg about bray
560 - accuses paf of bus-voting
571 - agrees with most zoran reads except dan/orange/paf=/=all scum and that "dan looks least scummy at this point" (by now ive posted my treatise against dan, have been asking opinions, etc, and nothing from tvk)
578 - hits bray for bad reasoning, then asks this about paf, DESPITE the fact that PAF had answered the question when I had posts it a couple hundred posts back:
Quote:


TVK here is using the same logic I used on Dan, so he was clearly atleast reading my back and forth with Dan

580 - agrees he pushed bray to vote but denies he pushed him to vote for a big wagon, DESPITE the framing he used in 433
583 - hits bray on possible tmi'ing
586 - hits bray on another possible tmi, hints at bray being informed (being maf)
587 - agrees exactly with zwiebel on calling out bray's wording
590 - hits bray on his reads, and says this weirdly (looks to me like he's planting words in bray's mouth and also they look maf-ish) :
Quote:


591 - hits bray on inconsistent reads/voting
599 - triples down on "2 of paf/orange/dan = maf = possible, one of those 3 = maf = likely"
(Writing this now cuz I might forget later, this looks like the PERFECT narrative to subtly, consistently push if you want to mislynch PAF, nightkill Dan, then bus-lynch/mislynch orange D2 [not saying orange is inno ofc he's getting a wall like this too, bussig orange makes lotsa sense if orange is maf LOL])
603 - says he wants to lynch bray, and that he'll "settle for paf/orange lynch too"
607 - hints at "orange/paf connection", then says he "doesnt think dan=scum in general", then says this
Quote:
when I ask him to make his push convincing (imo town!TVK would summarize, make comprehensive reads, and grill EVERYONE, not just the 3 [paf/orange/bray])
609 - shotgun-questions bray on paf-lynch scenarios
616 - asks dan to move off orange, and asks SG to vote one of the 2 wagons (paf, bray)
630 - calls bray scum
634 - hits bray for citing maf-playing record
638 - answers this in response to me asking what we'd learn from bray lynch:
Quote:

^First is now obvious, thing on John was already consensus at this point (Jonniboi you're getting a wall too dw babe), third is vague

647 - says "bray=more likely to flip maf, this'd clear paf" [again saying this now cuz I might forget, what if this statement sets up bray->paf mislynch clain? he;s implying here bray flipping town would incriminate paf further

ALSO he says here "bray upping activity under fire is scummy" WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU WANT FROM PRESSURE, SIR???!??!!?!?!? you're setting up a catch-22 for bray: active? scum. inactive? scum.

649 - admits to leading witchhunts as scum, which i find a bit funny rn given the subjects of his focus all day (low-activity, 'low-hanging fruit' as he termed orange directly, paf directly, bray by inference)
667 - is thrown completely off when I start firing votes from the hip and shit-posting to fake-setup rng lynch (this was just to gather reactions btw), imo cuz he expected me to "fall in line" and vote bray
698 - "Not gonna let it go to RNG" BETWEEN BRAY AND PAF, HIS 2 BIGGEST SCUMREADS, and votes PAF right after dan to seal the lynch

UP TO THIS POINT, A FEW THEMES HAVE EMERGED:
>ONLY targeted paf/orange/bray
>was extremely cautious when interacting with me/Timur/Dan/etc, imo TVK wouldnt be hesitant to shred us apart
>fed words to his 3 targets and got their reads, imo, to figure out how to best setup a double- or triple-mislynch chain.

NOW FOR DAY 2 IN MY NEXT POST.

thoughts??

no control wrote on 08/26/17 at 15:40:28:


I still don't like b ray despite Dan's town flip, I don't think the connection was strong enough to somehow make b ray guaranteed not mafia the connection just seemed more of a possibility than a guaranteed thing.

I still have a very strong town vibe on Leone.

I also still don't like Orange, I think his posts have been terrible. I think he looks worse after Dan's flip as well.

I think TvK as a kill target would have made more since than Dan because Dan was someone who would have gotten heat today from a lot of people especially with his PAF vote again. There's no reason for mafia to kill him, meanwhile TvK was on no one's radar as mafia. So Leone's theory about Dan being bodyguard just makes sense to me.

I don’t think TvK is guaranteed town from that in case I'm wrong but it gives me more of a town read on him rather than no read.

As far as you and John, I think both of you have been quite active and have made very good posts and have actually tried to solve the game.

Third I have no read on, his posts just seem to not connect to anyone, which might be a town thing actually.

Zwiebel I'm not sure about, I haven't felt like he's been solving the game. I don’t want to make any reads off of a gut feeling though so he's still neutral.

Sportsguys posts have also seemed bad, they all seem to be reading off of general things. One I didn't like for example was how he didn't like you or John for preparing posts at the start of d2 cuz that's something smart maf would do. So he was reading you guys as maf based off of a concept rather than the actual content of those posts or what either of you did d1.

Sooooooooooooooooo idk I'm gonna finish reading through the most recent posts and then I'll vote. Right now I'm inbetween b ray and orange, and sorry I've been tired so that's why I haven't been going into as much detail as I should be. I still really don't like sportsguy's play though, but I think b ray is my #1 read rn.

^just a quick aside on what John said about the lafungo role:

TVK said "I wont live much longer according to shock's text"

just saying

it does fit, kinda, idk

this is insane

back to tvk

In my excitement, I forgot to finish my Zoran post:

Zoran discussed his theory of N1 (look above and see what it made me do lol). I would like to hear his answer about the 3 specific EoD1 votes though. Zoran, how did those particular votes influence your reads of each of those players, and of Brian?