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FT Mafia: Town wins by doing absolutely nothing (Read 15720 times)
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #900 - 08/26/17 at 14:10:17
 
Speculating on potential mafia teams...but first, the thing is that 12 players is a tough number for a mafia game.

Assuming one neutral player, 3v8v1 is really rough for town depending on roles. Otherwise it's 2v9v1, which is tough for mafia but maybe better overall.
If there's two neutrals it would be 3v7v1v1, I would think you'd have to go 2v8v1v1 at that point.
So it might be a mafia duo rather than a team.

Right now I'm assuming Zoran and TvK are town.

Lynching B.Ray tells us a lot about Zwiebel and John.
Lynching Orange tells us some about TYG (Zwiebel pointed out that TYG was going after Orange day 1).
What do we learn from lynching Sportsguy?
Any other prime wagons anyone wants to go for?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #901 - 08/26/17 at 14:12:34
 
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #902 - 08/26/17 at 14:14:19
 
yeah I was gonna throw out a few mafia teams but it could a be a duo as well, basically some combination of B.Ray, Orange, Sportsguy with a Zwiebel or TYG thrown in there.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #903 - 08/26/17 at 14:38:11
 
Thiradell wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:10:17:
Speculating on potential mafia teams...but first, the thing is that 12 players is a tough number for a mafia game.

Assuming one neutral player, 3v8v1 is really rough for town depending on roles. Otherwise it's 2v9v1, which is tough for mafia but maybe better overall.
If there's two neutrals it would be 3v7v1v1, I would think you'd have to go 2v8v1v1 at that point.
So it might be a mafia duo rather than a team.

Right now I'm assuming Zoran and TvK are town.

Lynching B.Ray tells us a lot about Zwiebel and John.
Lynching Orange tells us some about TYG (Zwiebel pointed out that TYG was going after Orange day 1).
What do we learn from lynching Sportsguy?
Any other prime wagons anyone wants to go for?


Why does lynching me tell you a lot about John and Zwiebel? You're saying just because they are against me if I flip town they have to be Maf and vice versa?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #904 - 08/26/17 at 14:51:39
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:38:11:
Thiradell wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:10:17:
Speculating on potential mafia teams...but first, the thing is that 12 players is a tough number for a mafia game.

Assuming one neutral player, 3v8v1 is really rough for town depending on roles. Otherwise it's 2v9v1, which is tough for mafia but maybe better overall.
If there's two neutrals it would be 3v7v1v1, I would think you'd have to go 2v8v1v1 at that point.
So it might be a mafia duo rather than a team.

Right now I'm assuming Zoran and TvK are town.

Lynching B.Ray tells us a lot about Zwiebel and John.
Lynching Orange tells us some about TYG (Zwiebel pointed out that TYG was going after Orange day 1).
What do we learn from lynching Sportsguy?
Any other prime wagons anyone wants to go for?


Why does lynching me tell you a lot about John and Zwiebel? You're saying just because they are against me if I flip town they have to be Maf and vice versa?


mainly if you flip maf that they're probably town, but yes
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #905 - 08/26/17 at 14:59:16
 
I think think this is pretty weak reasoning, especially when we have certain concrete things we know. Players that are for sure linked. I.e. Me and Orange, TVK and Lewis. Why are you going of reads which can easily be wrong at this stage in the game when we have some proof. You're just hoping to learn something IF I flip Mafia? This sounds sketch to me, anyone else?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #906 - 08/26/17 at 15:11:27
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:59:16:
I think think this is pretty weak reasoning, especially when we have certain concrete things we know. Players that are for sure linked. I.e. Me and Orange, TVK and Lewis. Why are you going of reads which can easily be wrong at this stage in the game when we have some proof. You're just hoping to learn something IF I flip Mafia? This sounds sketch to me, anyone else?


not sure what you're referring to. You guys are "linked?" How so, and what do you mean exactly?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #907 - 08/26/17 at 15:13:04
 
I'm just trying to figure out your thought process because I consider you a good player and I don't follow this line of reasoning at all.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #908 - 08/26/17 at 15:14:36
 
Thiradell wrote on 08/26/17 at 15:11:27:
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:59:16:
I think think this is pretty weak reasoning, especially when we have certain concrete things we know. Players that are for sure linked. I.e. Me and Orange, TVK and Lewis. Why are you going of reads which can easily be wrong at this stage in the game when we have some proof. You're just hoping to learn something IF I flip Mafia? This sounds sketch to me, anyone else?


not sure what you're referring to. You guys are "linked?" How so, and what do you mean exactly?

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #909 - 08/26/17 at 15:15:05
 
the line of reasoning is, they've been anti-you, if you're mafia, they look good. That's one piece of the game among many that I've talked about.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #910 - 08/26/17 at 15:19:42
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:51:08:
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:25:42:
Zoran I'm just curious why a good player such as yourself didn't put much stock into me for a possible lynch? it's clear everyone else did lol. This to me comes across scummy or neutral role since Town should be worried about everyone. This is why I gave you a slight Maf read

- Zoran doesn't push you for lynch, this is scummy because town should be pursuing things other than primary wagons
- I pursue something other than primary wagons (you), I am scummy
- ???

Can you reconcile these points somehow? Because right now, you appear to be scumreading me for doing what Zoran didn't (but you are scumreading him for NOT doing it).

Brian, can you respond to this? Does anyone else have any thoughts on this as well? Why was I scumread for pursuing new wagons, and Zoran was scumread for *not* pursuing new wagons?

B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 10:38:05:
How much more content do you want Day 2? I have posted everything I know up to date and this demand for more content to me seems like a distraction from waiting to hear people thoughts about the TVK/Lewis theory as well. Why when I've been posting the most content  that I have all game are you now all of a sudden against me? I didn't do much at all day 1 and you were fine with me, this is fishy af to me.

I do wish people would comment on my idea that one of Lewis/TvK is scum based on EoD1 votes, but there are also other priorities (primarily figuring out what happened N1).

B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:59:16:
I think think this is pretty weak reasoning, especially when we have certain concrete things we know. Players that are for sure linked. I.e. Me and Orange, TVK and Lewis. Why are you going of reads which can easily be wrong at this stage in the game when we have some proof. You're just hoping to learn something IF I flip Mafia? This sounds sketch to me, anyone else?

Linked in what way? My thoughts on you and Orange are completely independent at the moment...
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #911 - 08/26/17 at 15:40:28
 
TYG Day 1

Comes in a bit late, makes some observations, mostly about Leone, some on Dan.

He doesn't like Orange's 1st post. 155

He says he doesn't want Leone lynched. 168

In this entire episode he pretty much shared opinions only on Leone, Dan and Orange.

After this he comes in eod and has a big post about 4 of his maf leans:

LewisRichards wrote on 08/24/17 at 10:12:00:
Anyway I'm gonna try to explain my reads on Dan sportsguy PAF and Orange since I think there could be multiple maf in those 4.


After that he votes Orange and talks about possible PAF + orange mafia pair. Considering this theory, what do you think about Orange now?

He also expreses his possitive thoughts about Dan:

LewisRichards wrote on 08/24/17 at 10:34:26:
Dan was more of a scum possibility than a scum read. He's closer to nuetral than scum and I feel slightly better since I think paf orange is the most likely team and I don’t think Dan fits in with them.


in 544 he talks about Brian being suspicious.

As of 604 he started talking about a Brian/Dan m/m pair and he sticked to that. He voted for Brian 1st and then switched to Dan. Considering this theory, what do you think of Brian now?

He also states that Leone is Basically 100% town. 613 Has this opinion stayed the same? Do you still see Leone as 100% town?

TYG Day 2

Shared his opinions on everyone, but very little explanation. 795

LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 11:34:36:
@Leone #858 oh shit Dan being bodyguard actually makes sense. TvK as a kill target makes a lot more sense than Dan.


Why do you think so?

Could you elaborate more on your reads?

You should also vote and show where you stand now. I would like to see more activity and scum hunting from you as well.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #912 - 08/26/17 at 15:51:19
 
@Leone #858 (talking about N1)

I'm not sure there's anything to decipher from the wording - that's more likely just the story.

You say that scum killed Dan and a townie attacked TvK. After the events of EoD1, TvK definitely looked a lot scummier in my eyes, but I still doubt that he was so scummy as to draw attack from a townie. If anything, could it be the reverse of what you say? Scum attacked TvK, he was healed; townfag attacked Dan? Not unreasonable given that Dan was one of the primary D1 wagons...*if* this is the case, then the killer is probably a townie who was on Dan at EoD1. As far as thinking about bodyguards...with closed roles, who the hell knows?

@Leone #863 (questioning my opening D2 reads of Zoran and Timur)

After EoD1, Zoran was arguably my strongest townread - his vote away from PAF and onto Dan looked great. Obviously that vote looked less great as soon as we got the N1 results, but the fact remains that he moved away from a mislynch while there was still plenty of time to save PAF. Timur has been trying to puzzle things out in my eyes - even if I disliked his methods (that same thing you pointed out he wanted Orange to do, too much leading the witness imo) the intent seemed genuine to me. As far as "weird votes go" they're pretty much equivalent to you: all 3 of you were on PAF and Dan at varying points. The only difference is that Timur was also on Orange, which I liked.

@Leone #882 (talking about TvK's EoD1 vote)

See my #717, I say exactly this (TvK didn't choose to *save* Dan, he chose to lynch PAF and save Brian). Also see my #798, regarding Lewis/Timur potentially blitzwagonning Dan.

Lemme know if there's anything else you wanted me to address, I tried to go through all of your posts and reply to anything pertinent.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #913 - 08/26/17 at 16:01:05
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 15:19:42:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:51:08:
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:25:42:
Zoran I'm just curious why a good player such as yourself didn't put much stock into me for a possible lynch? it's clear everyone else did lol. This to me comes across scummy or neutral role since Town should be worried about everyone. This is why I gave you a slight Maf read

- Zoran doesn't push you for lynch, this is scummy because town should be pursuing things other than primary wagons
- I pursue something other than primary wagons (you), I am scummy
- ???

Can you reconcile these points somehow? Because right now, you appear to be scumreading me for doing what Zoran didn't (but you are scumreading him for NOT doing it).

Brian, can you respond to this? Does anyone else have any thoughts on this as well? Why was I scumread for pursuing new wagons, and Zoran was scumread for *not* pursuing new wagons?

B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 10:38:05:
How much more content do you want Day 2? I have posted everything I know up to date and this demand for more content to me seems like a distraction from waiting to hear people thoughts about the TVK/Lewis theory as well. Why when I've been posting the most content  that I have all game are you now all of a sudden against me? I didn't do much at all day 1 and you were fine with me, this is fishy af to me.

I do wish people would comment on my idea that one of Lewis/TvK is scum based on EoD1 votes, but there are also other priorities (primarily figuring out what happened N1).

B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:59:16:
I think think this is pretty weak reasoning, especially when we have certain concrete things we know. Players that are for sure linked. I.e. Me and Orange, TVK and Lewis. Why are you going of reads which can easily be wrong at this stage in the game when we have some proof. You're just hoping to learn something IF I flip Mafia? This sounds sketch to me, anyone else?

Linked in what way? My thoughts on you and Orange are completely independent at the moment...


John I made a post about why I didn't scum read you as hard because I like your day 2 posts and theory's specifically the one about orange and I being linked and TVK and Lewis being linked. But no one has given me their opinions on this making me more weary. I also think we should talk about other things such as what happened in the night because that's a FACT. But we have not done that today instead there's been a whole lot of nonsense imo.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #914 - 08/26/17 at 16:09:06
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 16:01:05:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 15:19:42:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:51:08:
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:25:42:
Zoran I'm just curious why a good player such as yourself didn't put much stock into me for a possible lynch? it's clear everyone else did lol. This to me comes across scummy or neutral role since Town should be worried about everyone. This is why I gave you a slight Maf read

- Zoran doesn't push you for lynch, this is scummy because town should be pursuing things other than primary wagons
- I pursue something other than primary wagons (you), I am scummy
- ???

Can you reconcile these points somehow? Because right now, you appear to be scumreading me for doing what Zoran didn't (but you are scumreading him for NOT doing it).

Brian, can you respond to this? Does anyone else have any thoughts on this as well? Why was I scumread for pursuing new wagons, and Zoran was scumread for *not* pursuing new wagons?

B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 10:38:05:
How much more content do you want Day 2? I have posted everything I know up to date and this demand for more content to me seems like a distraction from waiting to hear people thoughts about the TVK/Lewis theory as well. Why when I've been posting the most content  that I have all game are you now all of a sudden against me? I didn't do much at all day 1 and you were fine with me, this is fishy af to me.

I do wish people would comment on my idea that one of Lewis/TvK is scum based on EoD1 votes, but there are also other priorities (primarily figuring out what happened N1).

B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 14:59:16:
I think think this is pretty weak reasoning, especially when we have certain concrete things we know. Players that are for sure linked. I.e. Me and Orange, TVK and Lewis. Why are you going of reads which can easily be wrong at this stage in the game when we have some proof. You're just hoping to learn something IF I flip Mafia? This sounds sketch to me, anyone else?

Linked in what way? My thoughts on you and Orange are completely independent at the moment...


John I made a post about why I didn't scum read you as hard because I like your day 2 posts and theory's specifically the one about orange and I being linked and TVK and Lewis being linked. But no one has given me their opinions on this making me more weary. I also think we should talk about other things such as what happened in the night because that's a FACT. But we have not done that today instead there's been a whole lot of nonsense imo.

I'm referring to your reads that you posted earlier in the day. I'm happy that you don't think I'm as scummy now, but *at the time you posted those reads* your logic for your scumreads of Zoran and me is completely contradictory.

There's also been discussion of N1 actions, you should contribute to that. Who do you think attacked whom? Why?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #915 - 08/26/17 at 16:10:33
 
@Timur #862 (discussing N1)

Glad I'm not the only one that thinks scum launched the attack on TvK, that was my thought as well (see my #713).

@Timur #890 (discussing D1 wagons)

EXACTLY - I've been trying to get Brian to address this point as well. Scum were probably happy as hell that the primary wagons for most of the day were both on townies. Why would any scum stick out their neck just to bring out *more* info which would help town?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #916 - 08/26/17 at 16:13:39
 
Honestly John I've only played the warewolf variant so I'm not even familiar with neutral roles and what they do. I do not know what Yoshi Star is. I researched cop and doctor but besides that I'm clueless. I'm not sure how much I can help in this regard. But I'd like to discuss it
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #917 - 08/26/17 at 16:18:49
 
no control wrote on 08/26/17 at 06:12:03:
Sportsguy day 2 so far

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:
I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian.  Simple as that.  I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them.   Those two were biggest town leans.  And i posted that multiple times.  


Guess i got one of my answers.

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:17:57:
Dan flipped exactly how i thought.  PAF i thought was probably mafia so i was surprised.  I think B.Ray is most likely town.  He didn't defend himself very well at the end of the day.  But it gave a strong town vibe to me.  I'm also of the opinion we are ususally wrong on day 1 bandwagons.  

So why didn't you try harder eod?  You just sit back and waited for others to make a decision and then you chose among the 2.

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:39:45:
I would say 1 mafia member was on PAF, 1 on B.ray, and 1 on someone else.  

So PAF had Me, Dan, Tyk, B.Ray, Zwiebel
I'm not mafia, Dan wasn't, fairly sure B.Ray isn't, leaves tyk and zwiebel.  I would give zwiebel a little more chance of being mafia than u.  

On B.Ray had John, PAF, u and tyg most of the day, but not the end
So not PAF.  Between JOhn and tyg, i would lean toward John

In general i'm suspicous of John and no control.  Mafia members like to have those long post ready to start the day.  


So you are convinced there are 3 mafia members?

How do you mean someone else?

As for the last sentance, this is from your previous experiance or from where? Can you elaborate on that statement?




Caught upto this post.  

Try harder to do what EOD?  PAF or b.ray was going to be lynched no matter what i did.  

The other mafia member was on another person or hadn't voted.

Why wouldn't there be 3 mafia members?  4 seems high and 2 seems low with 12 players

It just seems that it always happens that way.  I don't have concrete evidence that it does, but from my recollection it does.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #918 - 08/26/17 at 16:20:33
 
LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 11:15:35:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/26/17 at 04:37:33:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/26/17 at 01:47:23:
Hey just catching up now. It's late here so I might not get all the way.

@john #709
Switched the vote to Dan because I thought the Dan blitz wagon might actually be happening since Leone was pushing for it and was asking people. I did not feel comfortable with the lynch being decided by rng and no one was switching to b ray.

But you hadn't been on Dan on all day. If you really thought he was a better lynch, you had time to advocate for that. Instead, you went from 50% chance of Brian getting lynched to 100% chance of PAF getting lynched...by trying to "avoid rng" all you did was choose to lynch PAF who you also hadn't voted on at all during the day.


I didn't feel that it was a 100% chance that the lynch would be paf, and I did feel that Dan did not look good which I had actually mentiomed. Also I was trusting Leone that maybe the b ray lynch wasn't the best and the Dan one could actually happen.

This is terrible. Why the fuck would you trust Leone? There's only one person in this game I trust 100%, and that's me. I expect the same of everyone else as well...until people are actually cleared, you cannot blindly trust ANYONE. Sure you might trust some more than others, but NEVER MORE THAN YOURSELF.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #919 - 08/26/17 at 16:25:13
 
I went in detail through some people, the rest i'll do tomorrow.

Here is my list at this point with some explanations, i'll do a detailed one tomorrow once i read about everyone.

Town

John - He posted his theory in 444 where he expressed his concerns about both Dan and Paf being town. He is the only person that didn't end the day on a townie and he never voted for either Dan or PAF. Very active on D2 with some great analysis and good questions.

Town lean

Leone - Was my biggest town Lean, still feel good about him, but not as good as i feel about John. Will have to look at him more closely tomorrow.

TvK - Already had a slight town lean on him D1, started strong on D2 and appears like he has been a victim of an attack. Not quite sure what to think of that yet, would really like to see some more discussion about that. Most likely this was an attack on town imo. Hope he will pick up his activity tomorrow (RL).

Neutral

Timur - will have a look at him 1st thing tomorrow, didn't found anything that would make me move him in any direction.

Third - I liked how he picked up his activity on D2 with some great posts and big analysis. However, that D1 is still too much for me to call him town.

TyG - he was my town lean due to his interaction with Leone on D1, but after that he didn't show much D1. Ended the day without saying anything about 5 people. Very slow D2 start.

Maf lean

Brian - 814. He is more active D2 and is asking some good questions. I feel like i have to chase him to get an answer which is bad. Some answers i got were not satisfying at all in regards of content. Also, he still hasn't voted half way into D2.

SG - 807 and 810. Terrible D2, has done very little in this game, but still got very few votes so far, we need to pressure this otherwise he can just keep doing this!!!



Orange - 799 and 804. Terrible D2, has done very little in this game, but still got very few votes so far, we need to pressure this otherwise he can just keep doing this!!!
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #920 - 08/26/17 at 16:29:28
 
Leone wrote on 08/26/17 at 10:07:31:
HI



SPORTSDUDE why were you fine pulling an RNG between brian and paf?????? I thought paf was your biggest scumread the whole game??!?



There was plenty of time left in the day when i voted for PAF for others to vote.  You were the one pushing for RNG.  He was on my scum radar, but i was more than fine to vote for lots of other players except Dan and You.  

Now my biggest scumread is no control.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #921 - 08/26/17 at 16:31:21
 
People need to place their votes!!!

Going to sleep now since i get up in 6 hours.

Will be here tomorrow since around 2-3 PM CET.

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #922 - 08/26/17 at 16:31:42
 
Zwiebel wrote on 08/26/17 at 10:17:44:
A question to everyone.

If there ANYONE who thinks that Brian is Town at this point?


Catching up as i go.  Yes i think B.Ray is town mainly because day 1 bandwagons are usually wrong.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #923 - 08/26/17 at 16:34:12
 
Thiradell wrote on 08/26/17 at 13:27:30:
TvK day 2
21, 22. Again reiterates that he was pushing B.Ray [calls out John’s BS this time], votes B.Ray


Here is TvK's 22nd D2 post that you are referring to:
TvK wrote on 08/26/17 at 00:09:27:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/25/17 at 21:14:51:
TvK: Regardless of EoD confusion, why were you already already saying in #571 that you were going to switch back to PAF? Where was your conviction in the Brian wagon?


I was one of the people leading the PAF wagon and I still had many reasons to believe PAF was scum. I tried to get the B.Ray wagon going, and I thought I brought up a lot of good points in response to his posts, but nobody seemed to be interested in following us. Zoran switching over to Dan made it 3-3. If B.Ray wasn't going to get lynched, I figured that I much rather wanted a PAF lynch. However, B.Ray came back with more bad posting, and I was able to convince both TYG and PAF to keep the wagon going.

Third, which part of my post is BS? Why would I not question his conviction on the D1 Brian wagon? When it was just me and him on it, he said he would have to switch back to PAF. Thankfully he stayed on, but once the wagon actually got going...TO THE POINT OF BEING THE LEADING WAGON...he jumped off last second and helped secure a mislynch?

So, given that nothing in the previous paragraph is even an interpretation and is literally just a factual listing of events...again I ask, which part of my post is BS?
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #924 - 08/26/17 at 16:41:31
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/26/17 at 09:53:57:
And Orange do you still suspect me and why did you do a 180 and flip? is it strictly because you are at risk and I'm your best chance of survival? I need answers!!!


The reason why I still don't believe you are town is because of multiple posts you've made suggesting otherwise. And why would having a scum read on you be for the sake of my own survival? Throughout the game so far you have provided more posts that scream scum than any other player I've looked at. Also, would you care to answer my questions on #802?
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