Pretty early on in the game, TYG already attacked Orange for his first post(#155) so far. This post strikes me as odd, it kinda seems a little bit angry, immediately counterattacking Orange without any further reasoning besides "I don't like any of ur posts and I think you could be maf". The "lol" at the end makes this post seem even weirder to me. On top of that, he didn't even read Orange's point correctly, Orange said:
If TYG doesn't post on this or any other thread today then I'll raise my suspicions.
Maybe I'm reading too much into a small thing here, but I think there's relevance to it.
A lot of Dan/Leone talk after this from tyg. Didn't really find much in these besides the fact that TYG uses abnormal amounts of "lol" in his posts. Does anyone know if he always does that?
Then he's not posting for a long while(until 4 hourse before eod), comes back with a big post(#537):
Okay, I saw the one post about how I'm supposed to look bad or something for "waiting" till eod to vote. I didn't mean to wait I just wasn't online at all yesterday. Anyway if you want to know, at the time I had first read everything I would have placed my vote on orange if we had to. The info lacked and he seemed to have posted enough that perhaps we could tie him to other mafia if he turned up maf but his posts were still useless to town so perhaps a very safe lynch but maybe not the right one? Anyway I'm gonna try to explain my reads on Dan sportsguy PAF and Orange since I think there could be multiple maf in those 4.
Dan:
Tunneled on Leone YS theory, perhaps it could have been a slip like Leone said, but the theory isn't strong enough to confirm him maf obviously. He also took Leone's supposed "bait" about the comment where I was online and hadn't posted. Didn't take it as bad as orange did. But maybe it's notable? Eiher way, dan is very smart so I'm not certain about his play yet. It's not that I think he's maf...just more info on him than B Ray or Timur for example.
Probably not voting him d1 but maybe in the future. Oh yeah one more thing I wanted to point out about Dan is he's made a lot of comments about how he's doing the "town" thing to do or "maf" wouldn't do what he's doing... I reallly don't like those comments.
"Also I feel like if I were mafia I would have just posted that in mafia chat but you be the judge"
DansGame wrote on 08/22/17 at 17:12:08:johnboy81918 wrote on 08/22/17 at 17:11:02:Orange Slices wrote on 08/22/17 at 17:06:26:Leone wrote on 08/22/17 at 15:07:11:Oh also hi TYG! I see you on but not posting yet, please do join this lovely party we're having! My super-duper radar of truthiness spots online-but-not-posting folk, check it out on the Mario Kart MB™'s front page!
This may mean that TYG is PM'ing another mafia but forgetting to post on this thread to cloak that evidence. If TYG doesn't post on this or any other thread today then I'll raise my suspicions.
I don't think this means anything - metagaming isn't part of this game. Random speculation like this is counterproductive imo - better to look at the content that's *in* the game rather than the things that *aren't*.
Whatever the real reasons are behind it, I don't think it's good for someone to be online at some point on D1, then go offline without having made a post yet.
Here's the post where he fell for Leone's bait I guess. I can see him making the post as either faction, it doesn't point fingers but it's more of a just noted for later. So maybe it's more of a town thing to say from him actually.
PAF:
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/22/17 at 15:21:32:DansGame wrote on 08/22/17 at 15:18:36:Are you Yoshistar, Leone?
Uhm, why the fuck are you speculating about characters this early? It's not useful...
This is a bit suspicious...
That is like so bad... like that can't be a good sign right? Shouldn't make a decision off of that though.
"Meh, you guys are making me doubt my own reasoning (which wasn't really solid in the first place).
I still don't really like the idea."
backs off immediately after backlash... not much else he can as either faction I don't think, not sure though.
"You guys think it's possible that Leone is acting on his character but is actually scum?"
"several things that don't match up with Yoshistar. Leone mentions he has 16 personalities or something..."
Now it seems he's trying to solve Leone's character and he's done a total 360...
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/23/17 at 04:51:58:I actually think Leone has good points about Dan. Maf know every character and he's the first to mention one. Him insisting on it is just him defending himself smoothly after Leone suspected him and Shock revealed the missing info. I mean, he does rely on confirmation bias too much, not everything Leone writes is typical of YS. I don't care if Leone is trying to trigger confusion himself, Dan could just admit that his character isn't clear or just get on with real scum hunting.
He's the only one that gives me decent scum vibes so:
[vote]Dansgame[/vote]
One thing that leaves me uncomfortable though... he's the top poster by far, and usually they're town...
But I actually think Leone isn't pure town. There's no fucking reason for this extreme change in playstlye. Who would like to get in the spotlight so much? Someone who actually wants to get lynched (makes sense that such role is named "jester" lol). Him building up suspicion on me and then giving arguments on me being noob town is also angel/jester-like. I actually find it more likely that he's angel (townie who wants to get lynched D1 but is vanilla for the rest of the game), he does seem to try to scum hunt. Anyway, don't lynch him.
Just wanted to comment on the main discussions that occured when I was asleep. Now it's time to focus on everyone else...
his first post when he gets back is voting for Dan. Kinda interesting might be trying to start a wagon with Leone, but it could also be legitimate just find it odd that that's what he did with his first post back.
"I really think Orange is noob town. Is defense makes sense, this is what someone would do if they were trying hard to scumhunt but aren't smart enough to read people as easily as most other, so they get picky. I sort of do this myself, although not on his level."
His attention to detail defense makes sense???? I'm wondering if an orange paf team is possible?
"Hmm.... I do notice his posts were always about the focus (Dan/Leone discussion). He said he would analyze my posts later on but never did... this isn't so townish."
PAF on me, that was the only discussion that was happening while I was online. I'm looking though your posts now
I don't like the comment about it not being townish though. I thought I made it clear that it was 3am and I had to work in 7 hours, should just assume that's the first thing I'm gonna do when I get back.
Sportsguy:
"I like Dan as town because of his searching for roles. Some of yall think the complete opposite, but not me. I actually like doing that because it brings more discussion. I would do this in previous games and would draw the most suspicion even though i was town." post could be good or bad. One thing to take note of is he had only read a couple pages at that point so he hadn't seen Dan tunnel yet.
"BUT when i am mafia i usually will vote for one of my mafia buddies during the game."
Don't like these types of comments...
"I mean Dan seems town just through his posts(nothing specific i can point to), but in general the person that post the most is town."
So this is after he's read everything I believe, so it's weird that he still has a full town read on Dan, without pointing to anything to back it up. Is it unconscious bias giving him this read or is it maf sportsguy trying to protect maf dan?
Orange:
Orange Slices wrote on 08/22/17 at 16:26:31:TvK wrote on 08/22/17 at 14:12:21:Gotta love when 3 of the first 6 "random" votes are all on the same person.
Due to 3 of those first 6 votes being towards you, I can assume 1 of 2 things:
1 - You are a Townie, and reacted on impulse to receiving half of the entire day's total votes (thus far from that post). Another clue is how you used "Gotta love" at the beginning of your post, which implies that you're incredibly pissed that other town members are voting you out so early on in the day, and there have been very few posts to back up their claims that you should be a mafia due to all 3 of these votes being on the first page.
2 - You are a mafia, who was unfortunate enough to have been caught out so early on in the game.
Quote:Gotta love when 3 of the first 6 "random" votes
In this instance, the use of "Gotta love" has a different meaning, in that you're rolling your eyes at the fact that half the votes have all been towards you. Furthermore, and this is probably the biggest giveaway, I find you putting quotations over
random very questionable. To me, this implies that these votes were not random, and 3 of those 6 votes were bang on the money.
Another giveaway of this is how
Gotta love and
"random" are used together. This could be referring to a previous mafia game, in which you were caught out as mafia by pure chance. These 2 outtakes from your post may be reminiscent of that exact game, and now you're annoyed that the same "random", lynching process is happening to you again.
it's just such a weird first post that I have to put it there right? I don't like reading into stuff from random vote phase at all.
Orange Slices wrote on 08/22/17 at 17:06:26:Leone wrote on 08/22/17 at 15:07:11:Oh also hi TYG! I see you on but not posting yet, please do join this lovely party we're having! My super-duper radar of truthiness spots online-but-not-posting folk, check it out on the Mario Kart MB™'s front page!
This may mean that TYG is PM'ing another mafia but forgetting to post on this thread to cloak that evidence. If TYG doesn't post on this or any other thread today then I'll raise my suspicions.
lol, there's orange falling for Leone's "bait" that he said his post was. clueless mafia would jump on it for sure, but maybe clueless town as well? Hard to tell.
"The reason I've come across as scummy is due to my unnecessary attention to detail when trying to accumulate evidence from just one post earlier on in the day"
extremely odd defense but okay
"I haven't been able to get reads on everybody but this is what I've got so far:
TvK - My strongest Town lean. Responds quickly and is very analytical. Questions people without being aggressive or intrusive. Knows people inside and out
PAF - Moderate town lean. It's difficult to tell and very few of his posts are "scummy", so it's unlikely he'd be maf.
No Control - Neutral.
MKDS - Town Jester. MKDS has a tendency to use smileys a lot in his posts.
I'll post my maf reads later today. I'm at school right now and don't have the time to search through yet."
seems so useless but perhaps relevant if we lynched and he turned up maf.
"As for Dan being the top poster, (not anymore currently), I'd say this may be a case of reverse psychology. Due to the top posters almost always being town as you say, it would seem logical to post as much as you can so people are tricked into believing you are town in that sense."
Dan posts a lot as either side, but I do like how nicely this is tying together a PAF orange maf team.
"I don't like how PAF has voted Dan, due to them equally being the most voted player. This may have been to put more pressure on Dan so he could attempt to prove his town allegiance or to simply jump on the bandwagon that would otherwise be on his shoulders."
And his very next post unvotes Dan because PAF, someone ho voted Dan earlier than him, had already voted Dan... I am so confused by this.
B Ray-
Not liking his first few posts, votes PAF pretty much immediately because his reasoning hasn't made sense, but that's the only reason he gave for PAF being maf?
B.Ray wrote on 08/24/17 at 08:42:15:Because if We lynch someone that is a shitty town we aren't missing out on him helping the town people much on later days. If he happens to be Mafia then we got rid of a really good Mafia player. It's a win/win for town. Although if he has a neutral role it could be bad but playing the math he probably doesn't have a neutral role right?
lynching shitty town or mafia is a win/win lol
Okay, those are just my thoughts on those people up until my last post. Gonna read the last couple pages and make a vote. lmk if I missed anything. Thanks
So, first of all he points out some fishy things about Dan, then says that he probably doesn't want to vote Dan D1, maybe later. Remember who he voted for in the end? Dan.
He goes on to analyze PAF, says he doesn't like a lot of things PAF did. No actual conclusion like "I think he's Maf" or anything like that tho.
Also he keeps mentioning that Orange fell for Leone's "bait", when I don't think there was much "bait" there in the first place. Maybe he very much wants to get attention away from the fact that he was online but not posting at that time?
Then goes hard after Orange again. Judging from his interactions with him, I think m/m is unlikely for that pairing, probably t/m or t/t
Next post, proceeds to vote for Orange(seems to be in line with his posts so far)
There hasn't been much discussing of maf teams I don't think.
How does PAF + orange sound to other people?
Seems to think PAF and Orange could be scum together apparently. All to be kept in mind for his later vote on Dan.
Read same as above.
Just not sure if we have enough info to lynch B Ray yet. The less info we have the more risky the lynch right? Even if he does seem almost counterproductive to town based off of thosr couple posts? Idk
Tries to lead away from a b-ray lynch. I'm pretty sure we had more information on Brian that we had on Orange at that point...
Leone's post seems to have convinced TYG more that Dan is a possible lynch for D1. Also keep in mind that he seems to deploy the opinion that Dan could be angel now.
Leone is basically 100% town in my eyes, I feel good about his theory, but I'd feel better about it if B Ray flipped maf.
[Vote]b.ray[/vote]
He then continues to vote Brian despite thinking that Leone is right with his theory that Dan is Maf, but scared that Dan might be angel so he wants to lynch Brian instead. Brian, who he was opposed to lynching not much earlier.
I don't know, I just feel he's all over the place with his zig-zagging at this point. It could just be genuine Town switching opinions, but it nearly feels over the top.
So he basically wants to lynch B-ray because he thinks Dan is Maf and B-Ray would be his partner, but why the hell lynch b-ray first then? Wouldn't you want to confirm that Dan is Maf first? char limit
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