B.Ray wrote on 08/24/17 at 12:18:43:


B.Ray wrote on 08/24/17 at 12:26:46:


anybody have thoughts on this? same post twice with slightly different wording because he thought it got deleted. my first instinct was scum slip, i.e. in maf chat:
"okay guys, this is my post, point 1, point 2, point 3" but I'm honestly not sure. could be nothing

end of day rush:

-Zwiebel hates BRay lynch, thinks maf are orchestrating it
-Dan also hates BRay lynch
-TYG loves Leone's giant wall of insanity, straight up wagons his vote
-Leone, for the first time, is detrimental with the craziness and just praises RNG repeatedly
-TvK chooses PAF

John pushed BRay super hard

obvious d2 wagons: orange, Brian
easy d2 wagon choice: sportsguy

gonna try to spend most of my time analyzing other players. If none of the above three are maf, assuming 3 maf in a 12-player game, I would probably put TYG in there. first paragraph of #537 looks super weak to me, rest of the post focuses too much on Leone/Dan and is a bit dated.

"- it's definitely likely that TvK would draw a heal regardless of alignment" -John

why? because he's a good player?

Orange Slices wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:01:34:


what on EARTH dude

first paragraph: I found something that sounded scummy 'cause it was past my bedtime and went with that

second paragraph: wat

third paragraph: I cherry-picked some phrases to sound like I had done more work than I did

just play dude. read as much as you can and say what you think, then vote for a real reason.

Zwiebel wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:00:53:

Just to make a chronology of the Brian saga (not only to reply to you but also for my own record keeping):

#420, Brian's first post of the game (with content)
B.Ray wrote on 08/24/17 at 05:37:54:

Provides an incomplete list of reads. Strongest read is PAF as scum.

TvK immediately replies in #421, questioning his reads. Particularly his town read on Dan and his town read on TvK himself (which was based on having the first vote during rvs lol). Brian himself reaffirms that reasoning in #429, that apparently making the first vote of the game is somehow good. The fact that 4 out of the next 5 posts were also votes (TvK voted in #5, Dan in #6, me in #7, Leone in #9, PAF in #10) apparently means nothing.

Leone replies in #429, telling Brian to find evidence, not follow others.

Brian votes for PAF in #434, saying nothing else about him. The only time he's mentioned PAF to this point is from his entry post where he called him his strongest maf lead.

#444 is my first post since Brian's actual entry to the game, I also bring up the sheeping argument that Leone started in #429 (yes, I see the irony here).

In #459, Zoran asks if I have any counter-wagons in mind that don't exist in the game yet (at the time, wagons are on PAF, Dan, and Orange).

In #471, I provide an answer to Zoran's question - I highlight Brian's posts that have so far shown nothing but sheeping or a willingness to kill people based on play in *previous* games.

Dan questions his reasoning on PAF vote in #481, seeing as he hasn't yet provided any.

Brian's post #484 claims that lynching shitty town is okay. Says "playing the math" is a safe approach.

I reply in #487, particularly that "playing the math" is a terrible plan, given that Shock literally says in OP that "town starts with strong majority" or something similar.

#497, I put the first vote on Brian.

TvK addresses Brian in #513 and #514, bringing up the same points I did in #487 and #497.

#525, TvK puts the second vote on Brian.

#537 Lewis voices his thoughts on Brian, brings up the same things that I already did. However, he votes for Orange in the next post. Lewis brings him up again in #544 and #545, saying there isn't enough to vote for Brian yet...

Dan reiterates in #546 that he wants Brian to give reasoning for the PAF vote. In #550 he states that he disagrees with my reasons for starting the Brian wagon.

#566 PAF brings up TvK's switch to the Brian wagon as possible bussing.

#571 TvK mentions that he's going switch to PAF since Brian wagon hasn't taken off yet.

#575 Brian defends Dan and claims TvK pressured him into voting, I think? TvK responds in #578 and #580, questioning his defense of Dan and his vote on PAF.

#579 Brian makes an accusation that it could be maf!TvK pressuring him into voting town!PAF.

#584 Brian says he won't betray good townies (more Dan defense). Also says he'll use more concrete info to help out in later days.

#585 Timur replies that #584 may be TMI-ing. #586 TvK replies similarly.

#591 TvK brings up the flawed reasoning (what little there was) of Brian's PAF vote.

#600 Brian says not much to go on since nobody has been killed. (apparently the 600 posts didn't contain enough info)

#603 TvK states again his preferred lynch is Brian. At this point, his vote is still there as well.

#610 Lewis says "If we lynch B Ray, he flips maf. Dan is a likely partner, PAF is basically cleared" - note: is he TMI-ing on Brian here or just really bad wording?

#613 Lewis finally votes for Brian - now he says "if Brian flips maf"

#618 PAF joins the wagon, putting Brian as the leading vote wagon.

#619 Dan again brings up that he doesn't like how I started the wagon on Brian.

#622 Sportsguy says he is leaning toward PAF lynch instead of Brian.

#623 Lewis brings up Brian's defense of Dan but also says he was wagonning PAF, when Brian hadn't really mentioned PAF at all (other than voting for him) - note: is this bussing play?

#624 Brian says he'll provide more reasoning for his PAF vote later (this is 35 minutes before EoD, as I bring up in #628 and TvK does in #630)
.
#625 Leone makes a post against Brian, no vote though.

#629 Brian brings up his previous maf game record as part of his defense.

#642 Dan defends Brian (saying he was going for "under the radar scum") and mentions that Brian wagon might be started as a distraction from Orange wagon - note: when I cast the first vote on Brian, PAF had 4 votes, Orange had only 2...
#648 I bring this defense into question (in my opinion, PAF was *not* under the radar during D1, he was in the spotlight as much or more than anyone)

#645 Brian asks if TvK always witch hunts (curious that he didn't bring me up here?), TvK replies yes in #649 but tells him to question his content rather than his methods.

#650 Timur says Brian lynch is a lure, says if PAF/Dan flip scum he's going to scumread TvK (also curious why I wouldn't receive the same heat?)

#656 Dan reiterates that PAF is more scummy than Brian.

#657 Leone agrees with Timur that Brian wagon is a lure.

#661 PAF says people need to choose between 2 main wagons: him or Brian. At this point, Brian is the leading wagon.

From here, read my wagonomics post #709 to see what transpired between this point and EoD. tl;dr - Sportsguy, Dan, TvK, and Lewis all chose to lynch PAF over Brian. At EoD, only myself and PAF were on Brian.

Holy shit that took a lot longer than I thought...but it helped me find some possibly scummy behavior, perhaps?

Lewis and TvK, I'd like to hear your reasons for any actions involving you in this post.
Lewis: if you were agreeing with the reasons provided by myself and TvK when you posted in #537, why did you vote Orange instead? Then you bring him up again #544 and #545, and still no vote? After you finally voted, you said Brian was wagonning PAF, but he really hadn't mentioned PAF aside from voting for him (he never really provided any reasoning for that vote either). Lastly, explain your EoD vote.
TvK: Regardless of EoD confusion, why were you already already saying in #571 that you were going to switch back to PAF? Where was your conviction in the Brian wagon?

Anyway, if I'm wrong on Brian, sorry...but right now all the evidence I can put together points at him being scum.

I will probably have more thoughts on this post as the day progresses.

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:

Alright, can you summarize your reasons for thinking PAF was more likely maf than Brian?

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:17:57:

Yes, the D1 wagons are usually wrong...why do you think I was looking for an alternative to the Dan/PAF wagons (I literally made a post exactly about this during D1)?? Those were the 2 main wagons, and I went with my gut feeling that they were wrong and found something better (in my opinion). At the end of the day who were the 2 leading wagons? Dan and PAF...

Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:39:45:

You're suspicious, but why? You're not questioning my content, just my methods. Everyone plays the game differently.

P.S. I possibly will be occupied on Sunday afternoon, I will be around a lot more for day 2 than day 1 in general though

Going to be offline for several hours, heading up to grandma's for dinner

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/25/17 at 21:14:51:


I was one of the people leading the PAF wagon and I still had many reasons to believe PAF was scum. I tried to get the B.Ray wagon going, and I thought I brought up a lot of good points in response to his posts, but nobody seemed to be interested in following us. Zoran switching over to Dan made it 3-3. If B.Ray wasn't going to get lynched, I figured that I much rather wanted a PAF lynch. However, B.Ray came back with more bad posting, and I was able to convince both TYG and PAF to keep the wagon going.

Hey just catching up now. It's late here so I might not get all the way.

@john #709
Switched the vote to Dan because I thought the Dan blitz wagon might actually be happening since Leone was pushing for it and was asking people. I did not feel comfortable with the lynch being decided by rng and no one was switching to b ray.

Going to bed in a little bit so for now I'll vote for my biggest maf lean.

[vote]B.Ray[vote/]

If I don't post soon it's because I'm asleep

TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:31:56:

Just reread the EoD shenanigans again, Leone first mentions Dan blitzwagon in #690, 4 minutes before EoD:
Leone wrote on 08/24/17 at 13:56:43:


Lewis said he'd be down for a blitzwagon in #692, 3 minutes before EoD:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/24/17 at 13:57:53:

But Timur said no such thing? Timur never replied to #690 before EoD. I don't read Timur's #684 as "contemplating changing vote to Dan" - I read it more as accepting his vote on PAF because he preferred that wagon to Brian (PAF and Brian were tied for the lead at this point, so Timur changing his vote would put Brian back in the lead).