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FT Mafia: Town wins by doing absolutely nothing (Read 15720 times)
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #725 - 08/25/17 at 14:52:03
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/24/17 at 07:33:27:
I'm here and should be here at EoD as well.

I know this is dangerous meta-territory...but I just looked back over every game played on this forum in 2016/17 and found a disturbing trend - the two leading wagons on D1 have been t/t every single time. Just food for thought as PAF/Dan have been the primary wagons so far this game - what do the rest of you think, are we going astray again or are we finally on the right track? Like I said, this is definitely a risky thought process (not just figuring out 1 person's meta...but our collective meta as a forum), however now that I've seen it I think it's worth bringing to folks' attention.


Based on this and beginning of D2, John is a big town lean for me.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #726 - 08/25/17 at 14:57:13
 
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:23:22:
First of all, I would like to know what everyone's thoughts are of the final couple of minutes before the end of day, especially with PAF and Dan's flips in mind.



I agree with this, i'll do my thought process for the last 2 hours

Eod thoughts

2 hours before eod PAF had 4 votes including mine. Brian, Orange and Dan had 2. I felt like nothing was happening so i decided to remove my vote from PAF. At that point i haven't studied Brian so the choice was between Dan and Orange. They were my top scum reads and i went for Dan because he was online. At that point i wanted to stir things up since i felt nothing was happening with 4 votes on PAF.

As the time passed i felt better about PAF. I expressed my concerns in 633. Things happened exactly as i have predicted it in that post.

Focused on Dan and was waiting to see if Orange comes online.

At the very end my thought process was next:

Didn't want to vote PAF because he looked better by the minute.

Didn't want to vote Orange because we would get nothing from his lynch.

Between Dan and Brian i felt better staying on Dan then switching to Brian. I expressed my concerns about Dan in 200 and 565. He jumped to conclusions 2 times in argument with Third and in the eod with me. He just didn't feel like the usual Dan town, especially eod (a lot of small posts, no serious scumhunting), so i decided to go for him in the end.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #727 - 08/25/17 at 14:57:36
 
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:51:37:
Neutral (from most townish to scummish):

Sportsguy
Zwiebel
Thiradell (his next couple of posts can drastically change his position)
Zoran

Care to explain why Sportsguy seems more townie than Third in your eyes? They're currently equivalent in my mind, neither has contributed anything useful...I guess you're saying Third has caused slightly more harm than Sportsguy?
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #728 - 08/25/17 at 15:04:17
 
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:23:22:
First of all, I would like to know what everyone's thoughts are of the final couple of minutes before the end of day, especially with PAF and Dan's flips in mind.

Didn't see this as I was putting up all my start of day posts, but I think my earlier posts already address this - the primary issue I had with EoD was that every vote was (effectively) against PAF and in favor of Brian.
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
You could also do it just because you enjoyed hopping for no reason.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #729 - 08/25/17 at 15:04:24
 
There were a shitton of posts while I was at work yesterday, I've been hanging out with my family this week and am about to go to dinner with them. I'll work on catching up when I get back and I should be around for eod on Sunday. Main thing I noticed skimming the last few pages is that Leone was in favor of randomizing the lynch. He also stepped out of character at one point, for like a paragraph, which is a bit odd because like I said, amongst the craziness of all his previous posts I thought he had some good stuff. Maybe he was just grilling everyone on everything and didn't really care

Noticed B.Ray defending himself a few times mainly by trying to assert he was a good player (lol at "6-1 lifetime record"), and it was pointed out that indeed, we don't care how good or bad you are, we care whether you're scum. We would prefer that you make honest reads and do your best to help find the mafia without worrying too much about how you look, unless somebody asks you something directly. Also thinking I'm a wolf because I posted reads on day 1 is pretty silly, I just said I don't give tons of details on day 1 because there generally isn't a whole lot to talk about (this was the second time my day 1 approach was misconstrued).

The Dan NK doesn't make sense other than to frame Leone or to make us think they're framing Leone to buy Leone more time. Probably more to it, like I said I'm gonna do some rereading

I checked the topic while I was on lunch yesterday (~2 hours before end of day), didn't have enough time to do anything. I'm happy with my vote because multiple times PAF not only questioned his own play, but said that he understood why people were scumreading him. I've seen wolves/mafia do this a lot ("I understand why you might think I'm a wolf"), so I figured it was a good chance.

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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #730 - 08/25/17 at 15:04:29
 
Quick list, will have a list with some thoughts later, probably tomorrow.

Town

John

Town lean

Tvk, Tyg, Leone

Middle

Timur

MAf lean

Brian, SG, Third

MAF

Orange
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #731 - 08/25/17 at 15:07:29
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:57:36:
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:51:37:
Neutral (from most townish to scummish):

Sportsguy
Zwiebel
Thiradell (his next couple of posts can drastically change his position)
Zoran

Care to explain why Sportsguy seems more townie than Third in your eyes? They're currently equivalent in my mind, neither has contributed anything useful...I guess you're saying Third has caused slightly more harm than Sportsguy?


I just think Thiradell looks very bad for dumping his vote on PAF halfway through the day and not showing up again. Sportsguy at least was around when the day was ending. I also have a slight townish gut feeling about Sportsguy.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #732 - 08/25/17 at 15:16:20
 
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:04:24:
I'm happy with my vote because multiple times PAF not only questioned his own play, but said that he understood why people were scumreading him. I've seen wolves/mafia do this a lot ("I understand why you might think I'm a wolf"), so I figured it was a good chance.


This seems like a strange thing to say. How can you be happy with a vote that helped lynch a town member? Also I would have hoped you would at least give us some reads in your first post. You talk about B.Ray here. Do you think he's scum or town? What do you think of the people that voted PAF or Dan?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #733 - 08/25/17 at 15:26:18
 
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:04:24:
I'm happy with my vote because multiple times PAF not only questioned his own play, but said that he understood why people were scumreading him. I've seen wolves/mafia do this a lot ("I understand why you might think I'm a wolf"), so I figured it was a good chance.


I honestly have no idea why you'd still be happy with your vote if a town was lynched. Regardless of whether he questioned his own play, losing a member is never a good thing
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #734 - 08/25/17 at 15:28:07
 
Orange Slices wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:26:18:
Thiradell wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:04:24:
I'm happy with my vote because multiple times PAF not only questioned his own play, but said that he understood why people were scumreading him. I've seen wolves/mafia do this a lot ("I understand why you might think I'm a wolf"), so I figured it was a good chance.


I honestly have no idea why you'd still be happy with your vote if a town was lynched. Regardless of whether he questioned his own play, losing a member is never a good thing


Why the hell do you choose to respond to this as your first post? You know what's even worse than voting to lynch a town member? Not voting at all. And to top it all off, the only vote you did make all day long was also on a town member.

I would really like you to answer the questions that have been asked so far this day.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #735 - 08/25/17 at 15:28:54
 
Of the three people that have shared their reads so far, you have been called scum in every single one of them. Care to defend yourself?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #736 - 08/25/17 at 15:51:57
 
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 15:28:54:
Of the three people that have shared their reads so far, you have been called scum in every single one of them. Care to defend yourself?


Not just that, care to share your current reads?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #737 - 08/25/17 at 15:52:40
 
last post was directed at Orange
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #738 - 08/25/17 at 16:00:53
 
It's alreay past midnight for me, so I won't go into too much detail for now, I'll just make some quick thoughts and leave the rest for after I wake up.

The fact that both Dan and PAF are Town makes any voting movements between PAF and Dan basically useless information, and since they were for a long time prime suspects, it makes it hard to get information that way.

However, it makes me feel a lot better about TvK, as iirc he was the one who tried to push hardest for a Brian wagon, when most other people seemed content with it being between Dan or PAF(and Orange a bit earlier). If he was Maf, why would he start another wagon that could potentially give us more information to work with instead of just joining in on Dan or PAF? On top of that, the fact that apparently he got attacked at night makes me think of him as highest Town lean right now. Also makes me think a lot worse about Brian.

Orange obviously has to show up today, it's very suspicious how he just never came back for eod, maybe he just felt the pressure and didn't know what to do and left?

If I had to make a list right now, it would probably look like(top most scummy to most townish):


Brian & Orange - Very scummy, pretty confident at least 1 of them is Maf

Third & SG - They are the only ones on D1 that only voted twice(aside from Orange and Brian, who both voted only one person!). On top of that, they only voted each other and then sprang on the PAF wagon. Both suspicious to me

Zoran -  I think the way he has been attacking people is pro-town, so I'll give him a slight Town lean for now.

TYG & John - Neutral, I have not looked much into them yet, I will definitely look into TYG tho, I wanted to do that d1 already because his posts gave me a maf vibe , but he somehow managed to slip my attention late D1...

Leone - I still think he's jester, the whole "ninja voting shenenigans" he tried to pull seem like just another try to look worse in this game. Will have to see how he posts today.

TvK - Biggest Town lean, as explained before


Gonna go sleep now, once I'll be back I think my first focus will be more detailed looking into EoD and some TYG analysis.
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TvK wrote on 05/27/14 at 03:07:54:
You should all listen to Timur. He's an onion.



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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #739 - 08/25/17 at 16:01:34
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:24:05:
Reads as of now...

Maf leans:
Orange - accusations and vote make no sense, that immediate unvote on Dan was sketchy as hell
Brian - too much anti-town content, and all the votes at EoD were made in such a way as to save him and lynch PAF (Sportsguy sending to tie + Dan, TvK, and Lewis all breaking the tie in favor of lynching PAF)

Town leans:
TvK - that vote to secure the PAF mislynch rather then send to RNG, wtf? You were supposedly on board with lynching Brian, if you thought he was the better lynch then a 50% chance is better than 0%. I would have you as a slight scum lean if not for the fact that you were attacked last night...see below.
Leone - seems to be trying to solve things, even if he's third party I feel he's helping town for now
Zoran - doing his usual good analysis, nothing scummy from him yet imo
Timur - my weakest town read, but seems to me to be pro-town

Null (somewhere between null and very slight maf leans, actually):
Sportsguy - hasn't done anything useful at all, so not explicitly "anti-town" but isn't helping at all, bad EoD vote
Third - same as Sportsguy, except no EoD vote since he wasn't around at EoD
Lewis - at least trying, but his EoD vote is bad

Thinking more about the attack/heal on TvK:
- it's definitely likely that TvK would draw a heal regardless of alignment
- I think it's *more* likely that the attack was scum-originated...I doubt a townie would have attacked TvK at this point in the game? Not sure, just a gut feeling.
- given the above, it makes me feel better about TvK than I did after EoD1
I also expect to see a full list of reads from every player at some point during D2.


I completely understand why my vote and accusations appear to make no sense. My vote on Dan was completely abrupt and out of nowhere. It was around 9:50 pm when I started writing that post and mum wanted me in bed soon, so I decided I had to find something which appeared suspicious and scummy and give reasons for my accusation because otherwise I would have gone to bed and the votes would have been finalised before morning, so I had to use my vote where I could.

no control wrote on 08/24/17 at 03:11:48:
Orange Slices wrote on 08/24/17 at 02:46:26:
Dan insisting on something is very suspicious. When scum hunting or searching through posts you should never make reads with absolute certainty.
Calling out somebody as a Town with absolute certainty could easily mean that player is a mafia with a significant night role - somebody who is vital to the team. So it would make sense for you to defend them with absolute certainty, as they're playing a vital role for the mafia who they cannot afford to lose.

[vote]DansGame[vote/]


So the only reason Dan is your top scum read is his certainty? What about his vote on you?


His certainty was the primary reason why my top scum read was Dan. Being adamant on voting for/accusing somebody could have easily meant the opposite, in the sense that he wanted to convince players somebody was on the opposing team from which they're playing; maf read=town, town read=maf.

As for Dan's vote on me, I'll say it again. His vote on me was very early on during the day with my sketchy post on TvK in which I questioned his use of quotations over random and cherry-picked select phrases from his post to make it look like I had done some work, due to the game already being a couple pages long at the time of my first post (that post).
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #740 - 08/25/17 at 16:04:35
 
This was in Johns long post:

Out of this final set, I think the votes that deserve the most scrutiny are Sportsguy, TvK, and Lewis. I'd like to hear some good explanations for these 3 votes. All three of you effectively chose PAF over Brian as the lynch candidate, why?


I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian.  Simple as that.  I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them.   Those two were biggest town leans.  And i posted that multiple times.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #741 - 08/25/17 at 16:08:19
 
Orange Slices wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:01:34:
As for Dan's vote on me, I'll say it again. His vote on me was very early on during the day with my sketchy post on TvK in which I questioned his use of quotations over random and cherry-picked select phrases from his post to make it look like I had done some work, due to the game already being a couple pages long at the time of my first post (that post).


He pushed for you the whole Day, this were his last posts.

DansGame wrote on 08/24/17 at 13:51:30:
Someone tell me what we gain from a PAF lynch? I think he could be scumbuddies with Orange but I think lynching Orange tells us more due to the wagon on him not taking off and people wagoning on Brian instead. PAF has otherwise been so wishy washy I don't know what else we learn. Orange has done nothing good this game and has no vote placed right now even.


DansGame wrote on 08/24/17 at 13:54:19:
I don't like the wagon onto Brian at all. If a couple people switched to Orange he could be lynched.


So it was more then just a vote from the beginning of the game.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #742 - 08/25/17 at 16:11:21
 
Orange Slices wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:01:34:
I completely understand why my vote and accusations appear to make no sense. My vote on Dan was completely abrupt and out of nowhere. It was around 9:50 pm when I started writing that post and mum wanted me in bed soon, so I decided I had to find something which appeared suspicious and scummy and give reasons for my accusation because otherwise I would have gone to bed and the votes would have been finalised before morning, so I had to use my vote where I could.


Are trying to look more scummy? You even call your own vote a bad one. You're actually saying that you first decided to vote Dan (a strong player and now confirmed town) and only then decided to look if something appeared suspicious enough so you could give some weight to it? You are litterally describing scum tactics here. And what was the rush to get the vote in? We were ages away from the deadline. And if you wouldn't have been able to come back before that deadline, you should have told us. Your final line is bullshit by the way, because you immediatly unvoted so you have basically used ZERO votes where you could.

Orange Slices wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:01:34:
no control wrote on 08/24/17 at 03:11:48:
Orange Slices wrote on 08/24/17 at 02:46:26:
Dan insisting on something is very suspicious. When scum hunting or searching through posts you should never make reads with absolute certainty.
Calling out somebody as a Town with absolute certainty could easily mean that player is a mafia with a significant night role - somebody who is vital to the team. So it would make sense for you to defend them with absolute certainty, as they're playing a vital role for the mafia who they cannot afford to lose.

[vote]DansGame[vote/]


So the only reason Dan is your top scum read is his certainty? What about his vote on you?


His certainty was the primary reason why my top scum read was Dan. Being adamant on voting for/accusing somebody could have easily meant the opposite, in the sense that he wanted to convince players somebody was on the opposing team from which they're playing; maf read=town, town read=maf.

As for Dan's vote on me, I'll say it again. His vote on me was very early on during the day with my sketchy post on TvK in which I questioned his use of quotations over random and cherry-picked select phrases from his post to make it look like I had done some work, due to the game already being a couple pages long at the time of my first post (that post).


What do you think of other people that try to lead town (me for example)? Do I not sound certain about some things? People have already explained why that's a bad reason to vote someone. And all of that once again is irrelevant because you immediatly unvoted. By the way, you are describing scum tactics yet again. You are actually admitting that you were trying to make it look AS IF you had done some work. My goodness, did your mafia buddies ask you to be as suspicious as possible today?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #743 - 08/25/17 at 16:13:14
 
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:
This was in Johns long post:

Out of this final set, I think the votes that deserve the most scrutiny are Sportsguy, TvK, and Lewis. I'd like to hear some good explanations for these 3 votes. All three of you effectively chose PAF over Brian as the lynch candidate, why?


I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian.  Simple as that.  I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them.   Those two were biggest town leans.  And i posted that multiple times.  


How did your reads change after the flips. I assume Leone is still a top townread. It's a pity that you never gave us a read of B.Ray yesterday because it's easy for you to come in now and say he's probably scum. Do you perhaps have a scumread that's not named Orange or B.Ray?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #744 - 08/25/17 at 16:17:57
 
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:13:14:
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:
This was in Johns long post:

Out of this final set, I think the votes that deserve the most scrutiny are Sportsguy, TvK, and Lewis. I'd like to hear some good explanations for these 3 votes. All three of you effectively chose PAF over Brian as the lynch candidate, why?


I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian.  Simple as that.  I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them.   Those two were biggest town leans.  And i posted that multiple times.  


How did your reads change after the flips. I assume Leone is still a top townread. It's a pity that you never gave us a read of B.Ray yesterday because it's easy for you to come in now and say he's probably scum. Do you perhaps have a scumread that's not named Orange or B.Ray?


Dan flipped exactly how i thought.  PAF i thought was probably mafia so i was surprised.  I think B.Ray is most likely town.  He didn't defend himself very well at the end of the day.  But it gave a strong town vibe to me.  I'm also of the opinion we are ususally wrong on day 1 bandwagons.  
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #745 - 08/25/17 at 16:27:07
 
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:17:57:
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:13:14:
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:
This was in Johns long post:

Out of this final set, I think the votes that deserve the most scrutiny are Sportsguy, TvK, and Lewis. I'd like to hear some good explanations for these 3 votes. All three of you effectively chose PAF over Brian as the lynch candidate, why?


I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian.  Simple as that.  I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them.   Those two were biggest town leans.  And i posted that multiple times.  


How did your reads change after the flips. I assume Leone is still a top townread. It's a pity that you never gave us a read of B.Ray yesterday because it's easy for you to come in now and say he's probably scum. Do you perhaps have a scumread that's not named Orange or B.Ray?


Dan flipped exactly how i thought.  PAF i thought was probably mafia so i was surprised.  I think B.Ray is most likely town.  He didn't defend himself very well at the end of the day.  But it gave a strong town vibe to me.  I'm also of the opinion we are ususally wrong on day 1 bandwagons.  


If that's the case, on which wagon were the most mafia members? Would they have spread between PAF and B.Ray while it would have been a lot easier to just focus on one of them and get an easier lynch? Or do you think they might have been on the Dan wagon, trying to get rid of a strong player while town was divded between B.Ray and PAF?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #746 - 08/25/17 at 16:34:31
 
Zwiebel wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:00:53:
If I had to make a list right now, it would probably look like(top most scummy to most townish):


Brian & Orange - Very scummy, pretty confident at least 1 of them is Maf

Third & SG - They are the only ones on D1 that only voted twice(aside from Orange and Brian, who both voted only one person!). On top of that, they only voted each other and then sprang on the PAF wagon. Both suspicious to me

Zoran -  I think the way he has been attacking people is pro-town, so I'll give him a slight Town lean for now.

TYG & John - Neutral, I have not looked much into them yet, I will definitely look into TYG tho, I wanted to do that d1 already because his posts gave me a maf vibe , but he somehow managed to slip my attention late D1...

Leone - I still think he's jester, the whole "ninja voting shenenigans" he tried to pull seem like just another try to look worse in this game. Will have to see how he posts today.

TvK - Biggest Town lean, as explained before


Gonna go sleep now, once I'll be back I think my first focus will be more detailed looking into EoD and some TYG analysis.


When you get up would you care to say why Brian has come off as equally most scummy to you? Third and SG's actions have sparked suspicion in your eyes. Would you say they are both just as likely to be maf due to them latching onto the PAF wagon (who is now proved to be town), or does one of them seem more scummy than the other, perhaps on the justification behind their votes on each other?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #747 - 08/25/17 at 16:38:07
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:22:07:
Brian, I would like you to address this specifically:

With 20 minutes left before EoD, you had the most votes on you (voters were me, TvK, Lewis, and PAF). If you are a townie, there are 2 scenarios here:
- some scum is already on you. Why would those scum move to secure a PAF mislynch instead? Either way, scum would get a mislynch if you are town. Why wouldn't they let the townies choose which of you dies?
- no scum are already on you. Why would scum *not* join this, the leading wagon? Who do you think the scum were on at this point if none are on you? Do you think all 3 wagons (you, Dan, PAF) were town and scum just didn't care which mislynch they got?

The main point is this: given that you were the leading wagon with 20 minutes to go, why would people (TvK and Lewis) leave your wagon to secure another lynch instead? Were they innocent, fooled townies?


Yes, great point. I trust TVK and Lewis a ton now. Obviously I was wrong about PAF and right on Dan. If 2or 3  townies are going at it and leading the votes, what is mafia going to do? Sit back and say literally nothing. I think we need to go back and see if any players that are usually active were quiet around that time. To me the fact that lots of people were silent when the potential orange wagon was discussed make orange look bad to me.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #748 - 08/25/17 at 16:38:32
 
Orange Slices wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:34:31:
When you get up would you care to say why Brian has come off as equally most scummy to you? Third and SG's actions have sparked suspicion in your eyes. Would you say they are both just as likely to be maf due to them latching onto the PAF wagon (who is now proved to be town), or does one of them seem more scummy than the other, perhaps on the justification behind their votes on each other?


Why are you blatantly ignoring my questions? Why are you so interested in Zwiebel's read of B.Ray? And Zwiebel's reasoning for thinking Thiradell and Sportsguy are suspicious is in the very post you quoted. Did you just choose to ignore that? Or do you not understand his reasoning?

Maybe the most important question got lost in the paragraph of questions so I'll put it on a separate line for you.

Why are you blatantly ignoring my questions?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 2
Reply #749 - 08/25/17 at 16:39:45
 
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:27:07:
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:17:57:
TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:13:14:
Sportsguy001 wrote on 08/25/17 at 16:04:35:
This was in Johns long post:

Out of this final set, I think the votes that deserve the most scrutiny are Sportsguy, TvK, and Lewis. I'd like to hear some good explanations for these 3 votes. All three of you effectively chose PAF over Brian as the lynch candidate, why?


I thought it was more likely PAF was mafia over Brian.  Simple as that.  I was always going to vote for one of the two top contenders to at the end of the day as long as dan or leone wasn't one of them.   Those two were biggest town leans.  And i posted that multiple times.  


How did your reads change after the flips. I assume Leone is still a top townread. It's a pity that you never gave us a read of B.Ray yesterday because it's easy for you to come in now and say he's probably scum. Do you perhaps have a scumread that's not named Orange or B.Ray?


Dan flipped exactly how i thought.  PAF i thought was probably mafia so i was surprised.  I think B.Ray is most likely town.  He didn't defend himself very well at the end of the day.  But it gave a strong town vibe to me.  I'm also of the opinion we are ususally wrong on day 1 bandwagons.  


If that's the case, on which wagon were the most mafia members? Would they have spread between PAF and B.Ray while it would have been a lot easier to just focus on one of them and get an easier lynch? Or do you think they might have been on the Dan wagon, trying to get rid of a strong player while town was divded between B.Ray and PAF?


I would say 1 mafia member was on PAF, 1 on B.ray, and 1 on someone else.  

So PAF had Me, Dan, Tyk, B.Ray, Zwiebel
I'm not mafia, Dan wasn't, fairly sure B.Ray isn't, leaves tyk and zwiebel.  I would give zwiebel a little more chance of being mafia than u.  

On B.Ray had John, PAF, u and tyg most of the day, but not the end
So not PAF.  Between JOhn and tyg, i would lean toward John

In general i'm suspicous of John and no control.  Mafia members like to have those long post ready to start the day.  
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