Dan, why haven't you switched vote to something, or are you okay with RNG?

I know you won't have time to respond to this, but I want people to see this question...

Shock wrote on 08/13/17 at 19:06:23:


1. Thiradell +
2. DansGame +
3. PAF -
4. no control +
5. B.Ray -
6. Sportsguy -
7. Timur +
8. TvK +
9. Orange Slices -
10. John +
11. TYG +
12. Leone +

First thing's first. To those of you with minuses after your names, line up, against the wall. Those of you with pluses, arm yourself with your tomatoes...

And, fire!













(this didn't show up for some reason)



If I missed your tomato and now your face is red, sorry about that. If you didn't send me a tomato, you deserve it, completely. Seriously. WHY YOU NO READ MY RULES?

Reveal of the result of the day next.

The Night ended with a chill in the air. The discussion yesterday had been thick with accusations, and the Town was anxious to wake the next morning; they feared the worst.

Indeed, the odds didn't seem to be in their favor, despite it only being the first night of misfortune:

We found DansGame dead in front of his N64. He was playing playing on a flatscreen TV,
it seems. He was Diamond, a member of the Town.

TvK showed up late to the gathering; it seems he took a nasty stab wound, but he was somehow recovering despite what appears to be a horrendous job of patching up. It seems he was attacked and "healed", if one can call that mess of bandages a healing...


It is not Day 2 yet. I am away at a meeting and was afraid I wouldn't be able to get the Night results up from my phone. I will try to unlock the thread at 6 PM my time, which is 85 minutes from the time of this post. Do NOT post yet.

This is a list of all people voting for PAF (post number - name of the voter (total votes on PAF after the vote)). This way everyone can easily see who voted and when:

post 9 - leone (1)

post 50 - leone (1)

as of 183 Leone not on PAF anymore (left at 1)

post 198 - zoran (1)

post 204 - TvK (2)

post 350 - Third (3) To the end

post 434 - Brian (4) To the end

as of 525 TvK not on PAF anymore (left at 4)

post 533 - Timur (4) To the end

as of post 568 Zoran not on PAF anymore (left at 4)

post 663 - Sportsguy (4) To the end

post 664 - Leone (5)

as of post 665 Leone not on PAF anymore (left at 5)

post 697 - Dan (5) To the end

post 698 - Tvk (6) To the end

People who never voted for PAF - Orange, John and TYG.

I prepared a couple of posts, gonna post them all now:

Wagonomics post incoming!

As of #500 (~5 hours before EoD), the wagons were as follows (voters are listed in the order in which they voted):
PAF (4): Zoran, TvK, Third, Brian
Orange (2): Dan, Timur
Dan (2): Leone, PAF
Brian (1): John
Third (1): Sportsguy
no vote (2): Orange, Lewis

Were any scum already on PAF? If not, there's ample opportunity to join.

By the time we get to #550 (3 hours before EoD):
PAF (4): Zoran, Third, Brian, Timur
Orange (2): Dan, Lewis
Brian (2): John, TvK
Dan (2): Leone, PAF
no vote (2): Sportsguy, Orange

TvK switched to Brian, joining me. Timur switched from Orange to PAF. Sportsguy removes his vote, and Lewis finally votes (Orange) to join Dan. As before, if there are no scum on PAF at this point, now is a great opportunity to join.

As we near EoD (~1 hour until EoD, up to #600):
PAF (3): Third, Brian, Timur
Dan (3): Leone, PAF, Zoran
Orange (2): Dan, Lewis
Brian (2): John, TvK
no vote (2): Sportsguy, Orange

Only one change in these 2 hours: Zoran switches away from PAF, onto Dan, causing a tie at this point.

Up to #650 (20 minutes before EoD!):
Brian (4): John, TvK, Lewis, PAF
PAF (3): Third, Brian, Timur
Dan (2): Leone, Zoran
no vote (2): Sportsguy, Orange
Orange (1): Dan

Starting to see some late mix-up here...Lewis jumps over to Brian wagon off of Orange, followed immediately by PAF (who was probably trying to vote for whatever would save him). If Brian is town, are the scum already on this wagon? If they aren't, now's the time to safely hammer home a mislynch - this would have been the perfect opportunity to jump aboard as the wagon was taking off. So the options are: either Brian is town and therefore all 3 wagons at this point were on town, or Brian is scum. Which of these scenarios do the rest of you find most likely?

For the EoD craziness, 6 more votes happened, I think we should look at each in order...
Sportsguy #663, votes PAF: PAF 4, Brian 4, Dan 2, Orange 1, none 1 - currently tied between PAF and Brian. Sportsguy, why did you vote to send this to a tie, what didn't you like about the Brian wagon?
Leone #664, votes PAF: PAF 5, Brian 4, Dan 1, Orange 1, none 1 - reasoning for vote was to purposefully send to a tie (not realizing Sportsguy had just sent it to a tie with the previous post)
Leone #665, votes Dan: PAF 4, Brian 4, Dan 2, Orange 1, none 1 - undoes his previous vote, sends it back to a tie
Dan #697, votes PAF: PAF 5, Brian 4, Dan 2, none 1 - Dan breaks the tie, he didn't like the Brian wagon (because of me, I think?)
TvK #698, votes PAF: PAF 6, Brian 3, Dan 2, none 1 - this was also to break the tie. TvK, why did you think PAF was a better lynch than 50/50 PAF/Brian? If you were confident enough in the Brian wagon, isn't it better that he has a *chance* to be the lynch?
Lewis #699, votes Dan: PAF 6, Dan 3, Brian 2, none 1 - says he was following Leone. Why did you do this Lewis? At the time you were making this post, it was tied between PAF and Brian, there was no way Dan was going to be the kill...so effectively you also chose to break the tie and lynch PAF, even without voting him.

Out of this final set, I think the votes that deserve the most scrutiny are Sportsguy, TvK, and Lewis. I'd like to hear some good explanations for these 3 votes. All three of you effectively chose PAF over Brian as the lynch candidate, why?

Last thing - let's see who all voted for whom at *any* point! Once again, not counting rvs (up to #25)
PAF (8): Dan, TvK, Leone, Zoran, Sportsguy, Third, Zwiebel, Brian - only Orange (who ended with no vote), Lewis (who I just mentioned above), and myself were never on him
Dan (6): Leone, PAF, Zoran, Orange, Lewis, Timur
Orange (4): Dan, John, Lewis, Timur
Brian (4): TvK, John, PAF, Lewis
Sportsguy (2): TvK, Third
Third (1): Sportsguy
TvK, John, Leone, Zoran, Lewis, Timur (0): no vote pressure applied on any of these players

I dunno what to make of this last info atm, but no harm in posting it since I compiled it anyway lol. Plenty enough different people were on Dan at varying points in the game...now that we know Dan was town, there must be at least some scum in there (if all 6 of those players are townies, any scum would have joined the wagon at some point and pushed for it more, since clearly plenty of townies were interested).

Once again, that's a lot of info dumped on everyone...lemme know what you folks think if any of this is helpful.

Brian, I would like you to address this specifically:

With 20 minutes left before EoD, you had the most votes on you (voters were me, TvK, Lewis, and PAF). If you are a townie, there are 2 scenarios here:
- some scum is already on you. Why would those scum move to secure a PAF mislynch instead? Either way, scum would get a mislynch if you are town. Why wouldn't they let the townies choose which of you dies?
- no scum are already on you. Why would scum *not* join this, the leading wagon? Who do you think the scum were on at this point if none are on you? Do you think all 3 wagons (you, Dan, PAF) were town and scum just didn't care which mislynch they got?

The main point is this: given that you were the leading wagon with 20 minutes to go, why would people (TvK and Lewis) leave your wagon to secure another lynch instead? Were they innocent, fooled townies?

Reads as of now...

Maf leans:
Orange - accusations and vote make no sense, that immediate unvote on Dan was sketchy as hell
Brian - too much anti-town content, and all the votes at EoD were made in such a way as to save him and lynch PAF (Sportsguy sending to tie + Dan, TvK, and Lewis all breaking the tie in favor of lynching PAF)

Town leans:
TvK - that vote to secure the PAF mislynch rather then send to RNG, wtf? You were supposedly on board with lynching Brian, if you thought he was the better lynch then a 50% chance is better than 0%. I would have you as a slight scum lean if not for the fact that you were attacked last night...see below.
Leone - seems to be trying to solve things, even if he's third party I feel he's helping town for now
Zoran - doing his usual good analysis, nothing scummy from him yet imo
Timur - my weakest town read, but seems to me to be pro-town

Null (somewhere between null and very slight maf leans, actually):
Sportsguy - hasn't done anything useful at all, so not explicitly "anti-town" but isn't helping at all, bad EoD vote
Third - same as Sportsguy, except no EoD vote since he wasn't around at EoD
Lewis - at least trying, but his EoD vote is bad

Thinking more about the attack/heal on TvK:
- it's definitely likely that TvK would draw a heal regardless of alignment
- I think it's *more* likely that the attack was scum-originated...I doubt a townie would have attacked TvK at this point in the game? Not sure, just a gut feeling.
- given the above, it makes me feel better about TvK than I did after EoD1

I also expect to see a full list of reads from every player at some point during D2.

@John: I really didn't like the way day 1 ended. We had so much time to get anywhere near a majority during the day, but we never even got close. I was thrown off by Leone just randomly swapping his vote around and encouraging people to vote Dan to get a three-way tie and let RNG decide the lynch. Both Timur and TYG were contemplating changing their vote to Dan. I did NOT want Dan to get lynched. I made my choice between PAF and Dan at that point.

TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:31:56:

There was no way to get a 3 way tie unless Orange and Third showed up, unless it would somehow go to 3-3-3 which would have required 2 people to vote for someone other than the 3 wagons. So you still had a choice between PAF and Brian, as far as I'm concerned...

Right I also have to say that I probably will have very limited access to internet the next 48 hours (pretty much the entire day 2), as I had already said when I signed up for this game. I'll be on for at least a couple of hours now. I hope to be back before the end of day but I can't promise that. I also will try to get at least a couple of posts in while I am away.

TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:34:49:

I'll admit that I don't like it much, but the timing of votes matters a lot too. I still find Orange and Brian a lot more suspicious than the group you are mentioning, for now.

TvK wrote on 08/25/17 at 14:41:11:

Can you post your reads list as of now?