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FT Mafia: Town wins by doing absolutely nothing (Read 15720 times)
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1650 - 08/30/17 at 13:00:15
 
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:44:56:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:36:18:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:34:06:
I don't get how you guys come to conclusion that he evil TOWN has a mafia win condition?

His reveal was red text, how would that not be mafia aligned?


I guess i can see it, will not rule it out 100%.

I read Third as town and he looks much better then Orange.

That would also mean that mafia has 2 night kills and a day shoot? I think that is too much, but i guess not impossible.

If the role is as I described it (he appears as town on scans, cannot communicate with scumbuddies, doesn't know who they are, they don't know who he is), then even if Third had an extra kill for scum, the fact that it's uncoordinated + he doesn't know for sure anyone's alignment doesn't make it *as* overpowered...
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1651 - 08/30/17 at 13:04:12
 
Zwiebel wrote on 08/30/17 at 11:34:13:
I will say this one more time

USING OUR LYNCH TODAY ON SPORTSGUY OR JOHN IS STUPID BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST ONE OF THEM IS TOWN

There is certainly a high reward if one of them is Maf and we lynch right, because the other one is cleared from that. But there's also a very high risk that we lose this game if we mislynch.

I think the risk is too high


I'll steal this idea from you, hope you will not resent it.

So you think it is better to go for TyG or orange just based on the fact that we have no clear town between them?
What do you think we get if they flip maf or town and the game is not over?

Sportsguy is mafia in my mind and i still think we should choose between him and John this time.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1652 - 08/30/17 at 13:09:58
 
John, any ideas on this theory from Timur?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1653 - 08/30/17 at 13:10:06
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:17:16:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:11:14:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:04:41:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 11:59:38:
What do you mean Orange used protection "instead of a kill" - why wouldn't another mafia member attempt the kill if that were the case? There is no way I can believe that mafia didn't *try* to make an attack on N2. If you believe that the attack on Orange did not come from mafia, then the mafia must have had their attack blocked (since nobody was healed)...


Orange was in danger for sure. Maybe he can either choose to attack or defend. I think this is least likely, but we shouldn't throw it away.

What I'm saying is - even *if* we go along with your idea, that Orange is scum and used a defend night action...why wouldn't one of the other mafia members carry out an attack? I really don't believe that mafia didn't try to attack during the night. There are only 2 options here in my opinion: either mafia attacked Orange and no other attacks were attempted (nobody else claiming a block, and nobody was attacked/healed), OR somebody else attacked Orange and the mafia attack was blocked.

Sorry, posted before I was finished...continuing...

Out of those two options, people need to answer to this question to figure out which option they think is more believable:
- would mafia actually attack Orange?
Anyone who thinks mafia would NOT attack Orange (I don't see why they would, two possible reasons: first possibility is that he himself is scum, so obviously they wouldn't attack him. The other reason is that if he *isn't* scum, he would be relatively easy to generate a mislynch since he's been scumread all game and been a wagon both days) must believe that Orange was attacked by town or neutral. In that case, what do you think happened to the mafia attack?

I really hope Timur, Brian, and Lewis address this before EoD.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1654 - 08/30/17 at 13:10:38
 
I should clarify that any member of the Mafia can submit a kill action for any other member who has a kill action; this is to try to deal with any cases of Mafia members being away for a whole Night phase. The player with the kill action in question however will be the one attempting to execute the kill action still. The last PM I get with a kill action for a player is the one I process if there are multiple submissions from the same or more than one player.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1655 - 08/30/17 at 13:13:47
 
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:09:58:
John, any ideas on this theory from Timur?

I mean, mathematically, yes I understand it.

Here are all the possibilities:
John/Sportsguy can be t/t, t/n, t/m, n/t, or m/t
Based purely on probability, lynching one of the two is more likely to result in a mislynch than a scum lynch - but there are many other factors (like actual game content) to consider besides just math lol
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1656 - 08/30/17 at 13:14:22
 
I still think orange carrying out the maf attack and getting countered is a possibility for sure but idk.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1657 - 08/30/17 at 13:16:26
 
LewisRichards wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:14:22:
I still think orange carrying out the maf attack and getting countered is a possibility for sure but idk.

That is definitely a possibility, but if so someone would have either spoken up about it *or* spent the day trying to get a wagon going on Orange...Zoran voted for Orange but I can't really say he's tried to get a true wagon going.
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1658 - 08/30/17 at 13:17:27
 
Can you give us your reads John?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1659 - 08/30/17 at 13:23:23
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 07:36:04:
Leone wrote on 08/29/17 at 15:57:49:
If John's town that gives us the least to work with.

I didn't read this statement closely enough last night, but the more I do, the more I feel convinced that you are setting up a mislynch chain. Once again, this makes me feel slightly better about Sportsguy and Lewis - their behavior has been scummy, but the more you push this, the more I think they might be useless and confused townies, respectively.

Leone wrote on 08/29/17 at 16:25:16:
IF YOU SEE THE SAME SHIT I DO HERE THEN JOHN NEEDS TO GO TODAY. A SCUM FLIP FROM HIM DOOMS ZORAN, AND HIS LYNCH IS THE ONLY SCENARIO WHERE WE GET AN ABSOLUTE CLEAR (SG cleared).

If you are so convinced, where's your vote? Honestly at this point, it seems like you are protecting Zoran because you know I will flip town (see your scenarios where you give repercussions of me/Zoran flipping).

Everyone, I'm starting to feel like Leone's play has been jester-like to avoid being killed, but he's actually using that to cover his scumminess. His protection of Zoran in case you guys mislynch me leads to believe they could be scumbuddies...his posts are starting to TMI too much for my liking.

[vote]Leone[/vote]


If he was Maf there is no way he would have put himself on the radar with that false claim, he couldn't have predicted how the group would have reacted. Just not worth the risk at the time for him if he was Maf. I urge you to reconsider this vote
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1660 - 08/30/17 at 13:27:06
 
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:17:27:
Can you give us your reads John?

I think scum are contained within (Sportsguy, Zoran, Leone) - I would sub in Lewis/Orange for Leone if he is neutral instead of scum.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1661 - 08/30/17 at 13:29:27
 
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:04:12:
Zwiebel wrote on 08/30/17 at 11:34:13:
I will say this one more time

USING OUR LYNCH TODAY ON SPORTSGUY OR JOHN IS STUPID BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST ONE OF THEM IS TOWN

There is certainly a high reward if one of them is Maf and we lynch right, because the other one is cleared from that. But there's also a very high risk that we lose this game if we mislynch.

I think the risk is too high


I'll steal this idea from you, hope you will not resent it.

So you think it is better to go for TyG or orange just based on the fact that we have no clear town between them?
What do you think we get if they flip maf or town and the game is not over?

Sportsguy is mafia in my mind and i still think we should choose between him and John this time.


If we lynch TYG and he flips Maf then John is cleared(no way TYG busses John so hard today if they are buddies unless TYG is a genius, which I don't think), and I would feel better about a sportsguy lynch on D4. Also would feel better about Zoran being Town, but the fact that TYG pushed much harder for John than Zoran doesn't clear him in my eyes.

If TYG for whatever reason flips Town and we're still in the game, honestly I could make some shit up right now to try and convince you that we would get info but I have not thought about the implications of that flip.

I don't think Orange gives us the same amout of info if he flips Maf and I'm not nearly as convinced as with TYG that he's Maf so that's why I think the lynch has to be TYG today. I mean if I have to I would lynch Orange over Sports/John too but I would very much prefer TYG.

I don't think it is important today what the implications of a Town flip from our lynch is, it is most important we lynch the person that has the highest chance of flipping maf.

Not saying we shouldn't think about Town flip implications, but seeing as there's not much time left I think that should not be our focus right now.
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TvK wrote on 05/27/14 at 03:07:54:
You should all listen to Timur. He's an onion.



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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1662 - 08/30/17 at 13:29:29
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:23:23:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 07:36:04:
Leone wrote on 08/29/17 at 15:57:49:
If John's town that gives us the least to work with.

I didn't read this statement closely enough last night, but the more I do, the more I feel convinced that you are setting up a mislynch chain. Once again, this makes me feel slightly better about Sportsguy and Lewis - their behavior has been scummy, but the more you push this, the more I think they might be useless and confused townies, respectively.

Leone wrote on 08/29/17 at 16:25:16:
IF YOU SEE THE SAME SHIT I DO HERE THEN JOHN NEEDS TO GO TODAY. A SCUM FLIP FROM HIM DOOMS ZORAN, AND HIS LYNCH IS THE ONLY SCENARIO WHERE WE GET AN ABSOLUTE CLEAR (SG cleared).

If you are so convinced, where's your vote? Honestly at this point, it seems like you are protecting Zoran because you know I will flip town (see your scenarios where you give repercussions of me/Zoran flipping).

Everyone, I'm starting to feel like Leone's play has been jester-like to avoid being killed, but he's actually using that to cover his scumminess. His protection of Zoran in case you guys mislynch me leads to believe they could be scumbuddies...his posts are starting to TMI too much for my liking.

[vote]Leone[/vote]


If he was Maf there is no way he would have put himself on the radar with that false claim, he couldn't have predicted how the group would have reacted. Just not worth the risk at the time for him if he was Maf. I urge you to reconsider this vote

I was seeing what his reaction would be - I know there is no way anyone will lynch Leone today for fear of him being jester. At this point, can you address #1642? We've only got half an hour left and I'm still amazed that people are letting Sportsguy stay under the radar and not contribute...
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1663 - 08/30/17 at 13:29:47
 
I may be AFK for the end of the day again; but I'll try to at least lock the thread from my phone. In any case please stop posting when the timer in the OP first line hits 0.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1664 - 08/30/17 at 13:31:01
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:27:06:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:17:27:
Can you give us your reads John?

I think scum are contained within (Sportsguy, Zoran, Leone) - I would sub in Lewis/Orange for Leone if he is neutral instead of scum.


So Timur is your biggest town i guess?

You stated that you suspect me because of Dan, anything else?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1665 - 08/30/17 at 13:32:20
 
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:34:06:
I don't get how you guys come to conclusion that he evil TOWN has a mafia win condition?

And where is Brian...


Sorry I was grinding DKJP FLAP (SC obv)
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1666 - 08/30/17 at 13:34:24
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:32:20:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:34:06:
I don't get how you guys come to conclusion that he evil TOWN has a mafia win condition?

And where is Brian...


Sorry I was grinding DKJP FLAP (SC obv)


Nice!
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1667 - 08/30/17 at 13:35:54
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:10:06:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:17:16:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:11:14:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:04:41:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 11:59:38:
What do you mean Orange used protection "instead of a kill" - why wouldn't another mafia member attempt the kill if that were the case? There is no way I can believe that mafia didn't *try* to make an attack on N2. If you believe that the attack on Orange did not come from mafia, then the mafia must have had their attack blocked (since nobody was healed)...


Orange was in danger for sure. Maybe he can either choose to attack or defend. I think this is least likely, but we shouldn't throw it away.

What I'm saying is - even *if* we go along with your idea, that Orange is scum and used a defend night action...why wouldn't one of the other mafia members carry out an attack? I really don't believe that mafia didn't try to attack during the night. There are only 2 options here in my opinion: either mafia attacked Orange and no other attacks were attempted (nobody else claiming a block, and nobody was attacked/healed), OR somebody else attacked Orange and the mafia attack was blocked.

Sorry, posted before I was finished...continuing...

Out of those two options, people need to answer to this question to figure out which option they think is more believable:
- would mafia actually attack Orange?
Anyone who thinks mafia would NOT attack Orange (I don't see why they would, two possible reasons: first possibility is that he himself is scum, so obviously they wouldn't attack him. The other reason is that if he *isn't* scum, he would be relatively easy to generate a mislynch since he's been scumread all game and been a wagon both days) must believe that Orange was attacked by town or neutral. In that case, what do you think happened to the mafia attack?

I really hope Timur, Brian, and Lewis address this before EoD.


I already addressed what I think happened in the night in a previous post. I don't think Maf would attack Orange(unless they thought he had a strong power?), so Maf kill was probably healed or blocked.
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TvK wrote on 05/27/14 at 03:07:54:
You should all listen to Timur. He's an onion.



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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1668 - 08/30/17 at 13:36:31
 
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:31:01:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:27:06:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:17:27:
Can you give us your reads John?

I think scum are contained within (Sportsguy, Zoran, Leone) - I would sub in Lewis/Orange for Leone if he is neutral instead of scum.


So Timur is your biggest town i guess?

You stated that you suspect me because of Dan, anything else?

My biggest townreads are myself and Brian Grin (but yes, after that I guess Timur has to be by default lol)

Honestly yes, that was the first reason - I don't blindly trust everything he says since I know for a fact he's wrong on at least one of us...however, I do think he's a good enough player to not be *completely* wrong. I also really did hate Leone's flip scenarios - saying that you look better when I flip town sounds like a very nice cover for you.
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1669 - 08/30/17 at 13:37:39
 
Zwiebel wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:35:54:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:10:06:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:17:16:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:11:14:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:04:41:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 11:59:38:
What do you mean Orange used protection "instead of a kill" - why wouldn't another mafia member attempt the kill if that were the case? There is no way I can believe that mafia didn't *try* to make an attack on N2. If you believe that the attack on Orange did not come from mafia, then the mafia must have had their attack blocked (since nobody was healed)...


Orange was in danger for sure. Maybe he can either choose to attack or defend. I think this is least likely, but we shouldn't throw it away.

What I'm saying is - even *if* we go along with your idea, that Orange is scum and used a defend night action...why wouldn't one of the other mafia members carry out an attack? I really don't believe that mafia didn't try to attack during the night. There are only 2 options here in my opinion: either mafia attacked Orange and no other attacks were attempted (nobody else claiming a block, and nobody was attacked/healed), OR somebody else attacked Orange and the mafia attack was blocked.

Sorry, posted before I was finished...continuing...

Out of those two options, people need to answer to this question to figure out which option they think is more believable:
- would mafia actually attack Orange?
Anyone who thinks mafia would NOT attack Orange (I don't see why they would, two possible reasons: first possibility is that he himself is scum, so obviously they wouldn't attack him. The other reason is that if he *isn't* scum, he would be relatively easy to generate a mislynch since he's been scumread all game and been a wagon both days) must believe that Orange was attacked by town or neutral. In that case, what do you think happened to the mafia attack?

I really hope Timur, Brian, and Lewis address this before EoD.


I already addressed what I think happened in the night in a previous post. I don't think Maf would attack Orange(unless they thought he had a strong power?), so Maf kill was probably healed or blocked.

If you think maf kill was healed or blocked...what makes you think it was healed? Wouldn't we know from the day opening text?
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1670 - 08/30/17 at 13:38:30
 
Ok i'm up to date on everything posted. I just don't understand the thought process of not voting for John AND Sports guy. i understand its something we can always come back to, but if we are right it gives us another person we can 100% trust. as th game continues we will get more and more information and more voting histories. i think the vote has to be john or SG.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1671 - 08/30/17 at 13:39:09
 
B.Ray wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:38:30:
Ok i'm up to date on everything posted. I just don't understand the thought process of not voting for John AND Sports guy. i understand its something we can always come back to, but if we are right it gives us another person we can 100% trust. as th game continues we will get more and more information and more voting histories. i think the vote has to be john or SG.

So, what do you think of #1642?
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Fant0m wrote on 12/17/11 at 15:59:31:
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1672 - 08/30/17 at 13:42:24
 
Between the 2 John's voting history is worse. I did not get a chance to re read everything as i had hoped but there's value in going with who Dan thought was scum. If we are right with John our odds on Zoran go up a ton. i don't see any other vote.

[vote]John[/vote]
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1673 - 08/30/17 at 13:44:03
 
Stop posting. That's majority. I know it's 4 votes. This is not a mistake.
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Re: Forum-themed Mafia: Day 3
Reply #1674 - 08/30/17 at 13:45:50
 
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:37:39:
Zwiebel wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:35:54:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 13:10:06:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:17:16:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:11:14:
no control wrote on 08/30/17 at 12:04:41:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/30/17 at 11:59:38:
What do you mean Orange used protection "instead of a kill" - why wouldn't another mafia member attempt the kill if that were the case? There is no way I can believe that mafia didn't *try* to make an attack on N2. If you believe that the attack on Orange did not come from mafia, then the mafia must have had their attack blocked (since nobody was healed)...


Orange was in danger for sure. Maybe he can either choose to attack or defend. I think this is least likely, but we shouldn't throw it away.

What I'm saying is - even *if* we go along with your idea, that Orange is scum and used a defend night action...why wouldn't one of the other mafia members carry out an attack? I really don't believe that mafia didn't try to attack during the night. There are only 2 options here in my opinion: either mafia attacked Orange and no other attacks were attempted (nobody else claiming a block, and nobody was attacked/healed), OR somebody else attacked Orange and the mafia attack was blocked.

Sorry, posted before I was finished...continuing...

Out of those two options, people need to answer to this question to figure out which option they think is more believable:
- would mafia actually attack Orange?
Anyone who thinks mafia would NOT attack Orange (I don't see why they would, two possible reasons: first possibility is that he himself is scum, so obviously they wouldn't attack him. The other reason is that if he *isn't* scum, he would be relatively easy to generate a mislynch since he's been scumread all game and been a wagon both days) must believe that Orange was attacked by town or neutral. In that case, what do you think happened to the mafia attack?

I really hope Timur, Brian, and Lewis address this before EoD.


I already addressed what I think happened in the night in a previous post. I don't think Maf would attack Orange(unless they thought he had a strong power?), so Maf kill was probably healed or blocked.

If you think maf kill was healed or blocked...what makes you think it was healed? Wouldn't we know from the day opening text?


block is probably more likely, but we can't be 100% sure that it's how that works. There could be other reasons for Shock not writing anything(target immune to night actions(SK works that way in most games) or a visiting ability or some other shit).

Especially with all the crazy powers in this game, I don't think we can safely assume much about it at this point.
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TvK wrote on 05/27/14 at 03:07:54:
You should all listen to Timur. He's an onion.



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