Mario Kart MB - Werewolves Game

Diamond

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #50 - 04/18/17 at 13:25:09

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:24:21:

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:10:52:

@Diamond: Why are you voting Dan?

@Dan: You actually think I’m wolf now despite your “Town FWIW” whatever you said before?

I'm voting Dan because he sounds a little suspicious of being the wolf, and the fact that he wasn't one last time increases his chances of being one this game

Btw, I didn't see this message you sent until now, @Alaktorn

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Hugo wrote on 07/31/17 at 15:13:47:

Well, it would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

JawsTheShark wrote on 10/17/18 at 14:10:09:

Walter is Australian, right?

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IsaaK. King Offline seen 3299 mj vids	Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this? Reply #51 - 04/18/17 at 13:27:14 DansGame wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:23:02: Being defensive can be seen as scummy but since you've seen me do that as town, it should give you more cause for consideration. Is this directed at me?
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DansGame Ninja Offline I Love Mark 2.0! punched 3358 kiddies	Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this? Reply #52 - 04/18/17 at 13:27:31 Definitely, the fact that I wasn't mafia the last few games makes it more likely that I roll it this time. That's definitely how it works.
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DansGame Ninja Offline I Love Mark 2.0! 3358 days karting	Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this? Reply #53 - 04/18/17 at 13:28:26 IsaaK, that was for Alaktorn but could be read by anyone.
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ALAKTORN

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #54 - 04/18/17 at 13:30:32

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:24:21:

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:10:52:

@Diamond: Why are you voting Dan?

@Dan: You actually think I’m wolf now despite your “Town FWIW” whatever you said before?

I'm voting Dan because he sounds a little suspicious of being the wolf, and the fact that he wasn't one last time increases his chances of being one this game

Gambler’s Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Can’t tell if this is genuine or wolf!Diamond got coached after his terrible entry post.

I’m claiming RAMBI ATTACKED

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« Last Edit: 04/19/17 at 20:06:24 by Shock »

ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31:

OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE

I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED

My YouTube

MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs
MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps
MK7: Held a lot of WRs
MK8: Held some WRs

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ALAKTORN

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #55 - 04/18/17 at 13:32:12

DansGame wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:23:02:

Being defensive can be seen as scummy but since you've seen me do that as town, it should give you more cause for consideration.

Sure, I’ve considered it. After consideration, I've decided I need another RAMBI ATTACK

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« Last Edit: 04/19/17 at 20:07:14 by Shock »

ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31:

OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE

I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED

My YouTube

MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs
MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps
MK7: Held a lot of WRs
MK8: Held some WRs

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Diamond

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #56 - 04/18/17 at 13:32:30

DansGame wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:27:31:

Definitely, the fact that I wasn't mafia the last few games makes it more likely that I roll it this time. That's definitely how it works.

It would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

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Hugo wrote on 07/31/17 at 15:13:47:

Well, it would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

JawsTheShark wrote on 10/17/18 at 14:10:09:

Walter is Australian, right?

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DansGame Ninja Offline I Love Mark 2.0! 3358 days karting	Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this? Reply #57 - 04/18/17 at 13:32:58 I actually think Diamond is more likely to be inexperienced town. IsaaK strikes me as more wolfish, fine with talking but afraid to push too hard in any one direction yet.
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DansGame

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #58 - 04/18/17 at 13:34:58

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:32:30:

DansGame wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:27:31:

Definitely, the fact that I wasn't mafia the last few games makes it more likely that I roll it this time. That's definitely how it works.

It would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

Ladies and gentlemen, someone out there please put this in your signature.

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ALAKTORN Myth Offline Resident weeaboo 6518 sex records Italy - Viserba Gender:	Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this? Reply #59 - 04/18/17 at 13:35:37 LewisRichards wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:20:16: Lol so PAFs vote was somehow genuine? Don’t know what you’re even saying here.
Back to top	ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31: OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED My YouTube MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps MK7: Held a lot of WRs MK8: Held some WRs IP Logged

IsaaK.

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #60 - 04/18/17 at 13:36:40

DansGame wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:32:58:

I actually think Diamond is more likely to be inexperienced town. IsaaK strikes me as more wolfish, fine with talking but afraid to push too hard in any one direction yet.

Remember we're only three hours into the game. I don't want to push hard because not enough has been said. Two people haven't even posted yet.

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ALAKTORN

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #61 - 04/18/17 at 13:39:25

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:32:30:

DansGame wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:27:31:

Definitely, the fact that I wasn't mafia the last few games makes it more likely that I roll it this time. That's definitely how it works.

It would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

“rolling a die” “landing tails”? The chance of tails doesn’t become less and less. Flipping a coin is 50/50, past flips don’t affect that. You’re just really lucky if you get INTERRUPTED BY RAMBI ATTACK

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« Last Edit: 04/19/17 at 20:08:37 by Shock »

ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31:

OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE

I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED

My YouTube

MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs
MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps
MK7: Held a lot of WRs
MK8: Held some WRs

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IsaaK.

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3299 days karting

Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #62 - 04/18/17 at 13:43:56

I'm going to turn in now. Will post my reads;

Dan-after his interaction with other people I have a slight town lean
Diamond- still a bit odd. May be inexperienced town
ALAK- neutral. His interaction with PAF is a bit strange, going on still about something unimportant
PAF- see above
TYG- hasn't really posted much. Neutral for now

Night everyone

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theyounggun

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #63 - 04/18/17 at 13:44:16

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:24:21:

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:10:52:

@Diamond: Why are you voting Dan?

@Dan: You actually think I’m wolf now despite your “Town FWIW” whatever you said before?

I'm voting Dan because he sounds a little suspicious of being the wolf, and the fact that he wasn't one last time increases his chances of being one this game

Do you know how logic works? It's like playing a slot machine and think after the millionth time you'll win the jackpot. The odds are the same each time. Dan has the same odds of being town/maf as last game. In this case there's a 25% chance.

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Diamond Legend Offline Roasted 2942 Statisticians	Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this? Reply #64 - 04/18/17 at 13:49:26 Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life
Back to top	Hugo wrote on 07/31/17 at 15:13:47: Well, it would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads. JawsTheShark wrote on 10/17/18 at 14:10:09: Walter is Australian, right? IP Logged

P.A.F.625

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #65 - 04/18/17 at 13:49:53

@ALAK: I did use random.org again lol. I was hinting at it with "dice". If 7-sided dice were easy to get I could've easily used one instead... but does it matter? lol

I think ALAK is town, the fact he seems to care about tiny details shows he's willing to scumhunt, i don't expect him to be this aggressive as wolf. We haven't got much info to start with anyway.

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MKDS Non-PRB (as of 22/Jun/2021): #53 out of 821, Titan A. Best time: rSG flap 21.324 (#24). My profile.
MK7 (as of 24/Oct/2015, inactive since then): #157 out of 330, Adv. A.

ALAKTORN wrote on 08/18/16 at 15:07:13:

I don’t make mistakes. Others do and I pick up on them.

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P.A.F.625

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #66 - 04/18/17 at 13:50:57

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

If the odds are the same then the odds are the fucking same. Do you even know what "odds" mean? lol

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MKDS Non-PRB (as of 22/Jun/2021): #53 out of 821, Titan A. Best time: rSG flap 21.324 (#24). My profile.
MK7 (as of 24/Oct/2015, inactive since then): #157 out of 330, Adv. A.

ALAKTORN wrote on 08/18/16 at 15:07:13:

I don’t make mistakes. Others do and I pick up on them.

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theyounggun

Ex Member

Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #67 - 04/18/17 at 13:56:10

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

The funniest part about this, is that we were both mafia in the first game lol

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theyounggun

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #68 - 04/18/17 at 13:58:47

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

Wait... holy shit. "You'd have to have insane luck to avoid being mafia" Would he say this as mafia? I don't think so.

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ALAKTORN

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #69 - 04/18/17 at 14:02:13

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

Nothing you said is wrong. But nothing you said means that the odds of being Mafia raise with each game you’re not one. Say this is Pokémon… if you have 99% accuracy on a move and miss 4 times in a row, that doesn’t mean the 5th time you have 100% chance of getting INTERRUPTED BY RAMBI ATTACK.

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« Last Edit: 04/19/17 at 20:10:30 by Shock »

ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31:

OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE

I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED

My YouTube

MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs
MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps
MK7: Held a lot of WRs
MK8: Held some WRs

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ALAKTORN

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #70 - 04/18/17 at 14:04:13

P.A.F.625 wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:53:

@ALAK: I did use random.org again lol. I was hinting at it with "dice". If 7-sided dice were easy to get I could've easily used one instead... but does it matter? lol

Now of all times you bring up random.org? I would vote you if I didn’t think you were being genuine.

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ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31:

OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE

I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED

My YouTube

MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs
MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps
MK7: Held a lot of WRs
MK8: Held some WRs

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Fant0m

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #71 - 04/18/17 at 14:15:24

Votes update :

DansGame : 3 votes (PAF, Alaktorn, Diamond)
Alaktorn : 1 vote (DansGame)

In a game of 8 players, it takes 5 votes to reach a majority.

Also, quick reminder :
Fant0m wrote on 04/18/17 at 09:35:33:

Also, if you want to change your vote, don't forget to write unvote before you vote for someone else.

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Diamond

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #72 - 04/18/17 at 14:17:50

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 14:02:13:

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

Nothing you said is wrong. But nothing you said means that the odds of being Mafia raise with each game you’re not one. Say this is Pokémon… if you have 99% accuracy on a move and miss 4 times in a row, that doesn’t mean the 5th time you have 100% chance of hitting or whatever, it’s still 99% and you still have 1% chance of missing. Like you said, you would have to be extremely unlucky to miss again, but the chances don’t change.

Exactly, I'm not saying there's a 100% chance of him being mafia. There never will be. I'm just saying his luck for not being the mafia is becoming slimmer and slimmer. And in what I first said for why I chose Dan, I didn't mean that his odds of being mafia will eventually be 100%.

Also @theyounggun. I love your new sig Grin

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Hugo wrote on 07/31/17 at 15:13:47:

Well, it would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

JawsTheShark wrote on 10/17/18 at 14:10:09:

Walter is Australian, right?

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ALAKTORN

Myth

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #73 - 04/18/17 at 14:19:43

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 14:17:50:

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 14:02:13:

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

Nothing you said is wrong. But nothing you said means that the odds of being Mafia raise with each game you’re not one. Say this is Pokémon… if you have 99% accuracy on a move and miss 4 times in a row, that doesn’t mean the 5th time you have 100% chance of hitting or whatever, it’s still 99% and you still have 1% chance of missing. Like you said, you would have to be extremely unlucky to miss again, but the chances don’t change.

Exactly, I'm not saying there's a 100% chance of him being mafia. There never will be. I'm just saying his luck for not being the mafia is becoming slimmer and slimmer. And in what I first said for why I chose Dan, I didn't mean that his odds of being mafia will eventually be 100%.

Also @theyounggun. I love your new sig Grin

Yeah but the thing is that the chance doesn’t change. Just because he wasn’t Mafia in 30 games before it doesn’t mean he’s more likely of being Mafia than someone else who was Mafia the past 5 games in a row. The chance is the same.

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ALAKTORN wrote on 11/22/17 at 05:24:31:

OH YEAH WHY AM I NOT GLOATING MORE

I PINNED DOWN KF!TIMUR AFTER 10 FUCKING POSTS

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL GET FUCKED

My YouTube

MKDS: 31 GODs, 28 Myths, 5 Titans, Hold 9 NoPRB CRs, Hold 11 PRB CRs, Hold 2 NoMT WRs, Held 7 NoPRB WRs and 8 Beta WRs
MKW: Held 2 3lap WRs, many Flaps
MK7: Held a lot of WRs
MK8: Held some WRs

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Diamond

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Re: Werewolves Game D1 : Who's gonna pay for this?
Reply #74 - 04/18/17 at 14:29:56

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 14:19:43:

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 14:17:50:

ALAKTORN wrote on 04/18/17 at 14:02:13:

Diamond wrote on 04/18/17 at 13:49:26:

Even if the odds are the same each time, eventually he's going to end up being part of the mafia. You would have to have insane luck to avoid being in the mafia every single game of your life

Nothing you said is wrong. But nothing you said means that the odds of being Mafia raise with each game you’re not one. Say this is Pokémon… if you have 99% accuracy on a move and miss 4 times in a row, that doesn’t mean the 5th time you have 100% chance of hitting or whatever, it’s still 99% and you still have 1% chance of missing. Like you said, you would have to be extremely unlucky to miss again, but the chances don’t change.

Exactly, I'm not saying there's a 100% chance of him being mafia. There never will be. I'm just saying his luck for not being the mafia is becoming slimmer and slimmer. And in what I first said for why I chose Dan, I didn't mean that his odds of being mafia will eventually be 100%.

Also @theyounggun. I love your new sig Grin

Yeah but the thing is that the chance doesn’t change. Just because he wasn’t Mafia in 30 games before it doesn’t mean he’s more likely of being Mafia than someone else who was Mafia the past 5 games in a row. The chance is the same.

Yes, you've made your point the chance doesn't change. But again his luck would have insane to never have been mafia in his life.

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Hugo wrote on 07/31/17 at 15:13:47:

Well, it would be like rolling a die and it landing tails every time. After every roll the chance of it being tails becomes less and less, because eventually it will land on heads.

JawsTheShark wrote on 10/17/18 at 14:10:09:

Walter is Australian, right?

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