ugh page glitch

Actually wait, if we mislynch and assuming maf kill goes through they reach vote parity...

really want to double check this first. Obviously no vig shots should be used in the night since they could be redirected with remaining maf actions.

It's 4-2 now, if we lynch Zac and he's maf we're solid. If we lynch him and he's town, it's 3-2 heading into the night. TYG or Web is the nightkill.

If the mafia reach 2-2 is it gameover considering they hold equal voting power to the town? I remember Shock saying something about not necessarily ending if there's vote parity due to night actions, I'm going to try to find that post.

In a town!Zac scenario D4 we're left with ALAKfungo, John, J-Cop, and TYG/Web, and that means either ALAK is maf or John lied about the roleblock going through/my roleblock didn't go through and J-Cop killed Dan.

So it's not 100% at this point, but it feels pretty close with 3/6 of the townies basically clear. I still think J-Cop is very likely to be maf based on his play through the whole game so his lynch makes more sense to me right now, but give me some time to try and think this new idea over.

Actually do we even know if we have any vig shots left?

one thing that is interesting about Zac's posting this game is he's only on for a few hours every day after everyone in North America is pretty much off for the night and doesn't have much contact with other members, whereas last game iirc he was around much more.

maybe that's due to his schedule changing or something, but he's definitely less available then he was last time. I find it really difficult to read the content of his posts though, they're pretty jumbled.

LewisRichards wrote on 01/11/17 at 19:52:00:

Extra shot N1 + Vinnie + Extra shot N2 are all that are accounted for. I don't have any actions left, based on your post I'm guessing you don't have a vig shot. Pretty good chance that one was lost unused among Racer/Zwiebel/Dan/TvK.

So either 1 or none is my best guess?

So a couple of options to think about (kind of reiterating things that have been said, but trying to put them together in a succinct summary):
*if* scum used their shot N1 (I believe they did), then Jon is scum and one of Zac/Michele is.
*if* scum used their shot N2, then Zac/Michele are both scum.

Obviously control actions coming into play would require rethinking things, but I want to get the easiest scenarios out there.

and solely based on interactions between players, I think ALAKfungo is more likely town than TYG based on the interaction with 42. Not that I think TYG is maf but I'm finding it hard to fit ALAK into potential mafia teams based on 42 and J-Cop's suspicion of Lafungo's play.

There is a chance mafia is out of control now that I think about it. Each player gets 2 out of of the 5 abilities, assuming mafia used a control last night then depending on if the other member used shoot earlier there's a 20% or 40% chance they have a control left.

LewisRichards wrote on 01/11/17 at 20:30:58:

I feel like I'm missing something. Could you explain the benefits of using a vig shot to me, even if mafia doesn't have a control left? Who would be a good lynch for today that would tell us where to aim a vig shot based on their flip?

Web wrote on 01/11/17 at 20:35:20:


I didn't mean vig shot specifically but more of any ability in general would be safer to use by players.

But I'll mention a vig shot scenario anyway in case anyone has it... Assuming we have 1 vig shot left. We lynch Zac. If he turns up town shoot Alak. If Zac flips maf shoot J-Cop. If J-Cop town lynch John. Of course this is only from my perspective but the good news is from other people's prespective's I could be replaced almost. If Alak has it we switch places. If John has it we would switch places. If J-Cop has it we would switch places. If Zac has it then I'm not sure. I guess I'm not sure on that but I feel like it kinda makes sense?

What do you think the chances are that ALAKfungo is maf though?

It would be a great bussing play by 42 before he even knew he was discovered as maf. With no mafia under pressure to start D2 it seems to make sense to stay in "mislynch poorly playing townies" mode over "bus my teammate who hasn't been under the gun all that much immediately at the start of D2" mode.

Also the fact that J-Cop is a huge mafia lean for me and the manner in which he voted Lafungo is a huge plus to that theory. 42 had to push him to jump on the wagon, I think J-Cop was hesitant to do so because he knew having two mafia members on the same townie wouldn't look good when analyzing wagonomics in the future.

I think Alak is pretty close to being cleared as town. Which is why I think Zac should be the lynch. So from my prespective at least it's either Zac J-Cop  (mostly likely) or Zac John (Not as likely) Since John and J-Cop can't be maf.