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Poll closed Poll
Question: Which 12 player setup?
*** This poll has now closed ***


Option 1  
  2 (18.1%)
Option 2  
  9 (81.8%)




Total votes: 11
« Created by: Shock on: 01/06/17 at 07:26:49 »

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Mafia: Game Over - Town Victory! (Read 7416 times)
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #650 - 01/10/17 at 17:31:53
 
Web wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:28:48:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:26:54:
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:25:13:
If it means I live to see tomorrow I will do it. This is painstaking because I have a 100% in Web/Dan.

[vote]J-Cop[/vote]


How do you have a 100% in me and Web before Vinnie flips?

he doesn't. It's also not even a 100% from his perspective today because it could be either me or you and he can only lynch one player today.


It's mathematically 50/50 unless the three conditions I mentioned are all met (Vinnie being mafia and faking a town report on you and you being redirected). Far less of a stretch to say it's one of you/Dan.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #651 - 01/10/17 at 17:34:00
 
Why was my most recent post deleted? What the hell it wasn't me.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #652 - 01/10/17 at 17:35:05
 
And now it showed up again. What's going on?
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #653 - 01/10/17 at 17:35:39
 
There's a page glitch that happens in threads this big
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #654 - 01/10/17 at 17:36:48
 
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 16:01:26:
And for your second point. Look at it from our perspective (that you are mafia). You give yourself 2 extra days to survive, because of heals/roleblocks, all which can not be confirmed. Technically if you were mafia, you could withhold your vig shot and claim multiple days that your target was healed, or that you were roleblocked. I sincerely think town cannot afford to go with that.


I must have passed over this post from TvK when I was trying to catch back up. I think it's a really good summary of why allowing the nearly confirmed mafia poster who has played 50+ games to escape to the safety and uncertainty of the night is a bad idea.

Maybe if we still had an inactive Lafungo and Lenny around I'd consider the potential loss of a good player to be much greater (which seems to be the reason that ALAKTORN is hesistant to lynch 42), but with ALAKTORN and John coming in as subs the town has a lot of skillful firepower left.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #655 - 01/10/17 at 17:39:32
 
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:25:13:
If it means I live to see tomorrow I will do it. This is painstaking because I have a 100% in Web/Dan.

[vote]J-Cop[/vote]


And I will go ahead and call this a slip. 42 knows Vinnie is going to flip town. And if Vinnie does flip town, then Web is guaranteed to be town as well. There is the 0.01% chance that Web was redirected, but that doesn't mean Web isn't town.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #656 - 01/10/17 at 17:40:03
 
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:10:21:
Oh yeah duh, what I completely forgot to consider is Vinnie and Web both being mafia. Since we find out about Vinnie after the day is over, I still think the best lynch is J-Cop.


LewisRichards wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:18:53:
Okay, so lynch J-Cop today. We can find out what Vinnie flips. If he flips town we lynch 42 the next day? Does that make sense?


I disagree with both of you and I think we have to lynch 42 today. Occam's razor tells me that 42 is mafia, and eliminating him would be cutting the head off of the mafia snake. And the thing with not lynching him is that there's no way we can confirm anything because he could just claim to be roleblocked/target healed... We have to lynch 42 today.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #657 - 01/10/17 at 17:41:46
 
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:24:15:
[Vote]J-Cop[/vote]

I’m honestly surprised it was that simple to change your mind. I thought I was missing something, but apparently you were?

I’d prefer a J-Cop lynch but I have to think about this. It’s kinda hard to wrap my head around. J-Cop has done a weak low-key game, he had a good excuse for D1, but his D2 didn’t see much improvement. I’m thinking about it as Town!J-Cop and Town!42, I’d prefer lynching J-Cop. The only other lynch I’d consider is Zac, just because he’s fucking inactive and does nothing. In terms of scum I had Vinnie and Web at the top, but we can’t lynch them, next came J-Cop/Lafungo because I’d expect better from them as Town and they were playing a low-key game (I’m Lafungo now though) and oh my god I forgot Lenny was even playing this game. He’s John now. So anyway next would be Zac simply because he’s laying low, something inexperienced Mafia tends to do, and who else is even playing… oh yeah TvK, at first I considered him scummy, but he’s had a mixture of scummy/Townie posts so he’s more at neutral now.

What the fuck was I even gonna say. I’m just mindfucked. Seems like my scummy leads aren’t an option for lynch today, and I hope Zac gets subbed out.

Nice, I see TvK is back. I’m just sending this message and reading through.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #658 - 01/10/17 at 17:41:49
 
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:39:32:
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:25:13:
If it means I live to see tomorrow I will do it. This is painstaking because I have a 100% in Web/Dan.

[vote]J-Cop[/vote]


And I will go ahead and call this a slip. 42 knows Vinnie is going to flip town. And if Vinnie does flip town, then Web is guaranteed to be town as well. There is the 0.01% chance that Web was redirected, but that doesn't mean Web isn't town.


The conditions for Vinnie to be mafia here for me are next to zero. I already explained this. Several times in fact.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #659 - 01/10/17 at 17:43:23
 
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #660 - 01/10/17 at 17:46:23
 
Alaktorn, I've been pretty hard against J-Cop today. Will elaborate more in a few minutes when I'm home
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #661 - 01/10/17 at 17:46:43
 
I'll explain it again. Vinnie mafia means he outed a town report on a legitimate town in Web. It also means Web was redirected. The only way this is not true is if Web and Vinnie are both mafia which would still mean Web/Dan has a maf.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #662 - 01/10/17 at 17:48:01
 
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #663 - 01/10/17 at 17:50:30
 
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:48:01:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).


So if you assume I am mafia that still has an unused vig shot...

Then the four night actions were Vinnie/Web/Dan/an unknown vig who shot one of the deads, assuming all of Vinnie/Web/Dan are town which in a world where I am mafia this would almost be a certainty.

That also means mafia did nothing besides their factional kill. Do you believe this?
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #664 - 01/10/17 at 17:50:44
 
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:46:43:
I'll explain it again. Vinnie mafia means he outed a town report on a legitimate town in Web. It also means Web was redirected. The only way this is not true is if Web and Vinnie are both mafia which would still mean Web/Dan has a maf.

What? If Vinnie is mafia  his night action could have been anything, or nothing. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #665 - 01/10/17 at 17:52:40
 
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:50:30:
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:48:01:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).


So if you assume I am mafia that still has an unused vig shot...

Then the four night actions were Vinnie/Web/Dan/an unknown vig who shot one of the deads, assuming all of Vinnie/Web/Dan are town which in a world where I am mafia this would almost be a certainty.

That also means mafia did nothing besides their factional kill. Do you believe this?

why do we have to believe that you have a vig shot in that scenario we aren't believing that you're town?

Isn't it just as equally likely you're a maf that doesn't actually have a vig shot and knew that claiming it was one of your abilities was the only way you'd survive to D3?
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #666 - 01/10/17 at 17:52:49
 
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:50:44:
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:46:43:
I'll explain it again. Vinnie mafia means he outed a town report on a legitimate town in Web. It also means Web was redirected. The only way this is not true is if Web and Vinnie are both mafia which would still mean Web/Dan has a maf.

What? If Vinnie is mafia  his night action could have been anything, or nothing. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.


Oh shit I legitimately did not even think of this. Web redirected, Web's report, a vig shot, and yours. Vinnie would therefore have done nothing.

Yeah ok but I don't think you can fault me too much for not thinking of this scenario. This game is a clusterfuck of mechanics. It's not something I am typically used to.

Back to me being confused again.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #667 - 01/10/17 at 17:53:10
 
13 hours and 7 minutes until the end of the day.

Right now I see 2 votes on J-Cop, 2 votes on 42, and 1 vote on ALAKTORN.

Based off this: http://prntscr.com/du2v8f


Let me know if there was a problem getting the votes in, I guess something broke when people were trying to use [vote]42[/vote]...
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #668 - 01/10/17 at 17:53:32
 
Web wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:52:40:
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:50:30:
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:48:01:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).


So if you assume I am mafia that still has an unused vig shot...

Then the four night actions were Vinnie/Web/Dan/an unknown vig who shot one of the deads, assuming all of Vinnie/Web/Dan are town which in a world where I am mafia this would almost be a certainty.

That also means mafia did nothing besides their factional kill. Do you believe this?

why do we have to believe that you have a vig shot in that scenario we aren't believing that you're town?

Isn't it just as equally likely you're a maf that doesn't actually have a vig shot and knew that claiming it was one of your abilities was the only way you'd survive to D3?


Under TvK's scenario it is assumed that I have an unused vig shot as mafia. That's his words not mine.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #669 - 01/10/17 at 17:54:57
 
I just really think it's most likely for me that Web is mafia, Vinnie who was guaranteed to use a night action N1 got redirected onto a town, and Dan who I have had as a town lean is town and checked Zwiebel. That's the scenario that makes the most sense to me.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #670 - 01/10/17 at 17:56:55
 
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:48:01:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).


IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

Remember Shock said that mafia only gets 1 vig shot max, so assuming mafia used an extra shot last night (what I've kind of thought all day) then 42 has no shot.  Also if town used a vig shot that would tell us that someone is lying about their night actions, which makes 42 look less scummy any way you slice it.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #671 - 01/10/17 at 17:57:13
 
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 14:24:38:
And another thing unrelated to Web's scan: I remember Zac being a very active poster during the game in which he was town (Shock's first game). Most of his posts were utter fluff and he never really helped us get close to uncovering mafia, but at least it showed that he didn't have anything to hide. Now in this game, Zac has been unusually quiet. I'm definitely keeping my eye on him as well.


sleeping then immediatly going to school takes time out of my day but i will try my best to beat it as i get 8 hours after school to post whatever is needed. before i was on break

as to the Questions you had earlier, got lafungus got mixed up a bit but he did vote without adding much up behind it.  for j-cop/lenny though, these low posters have voted for vinnie while having quite few posts. lenny's expectancy to post more i beleive is still here but he hasn't posted that much on anything that has been brought up on him..... jcop has posted a bit but also voted for vinnie out of the blue with no backup so this suspects him a bit.....

if you have thoughts on lenny/j-cop that may differ from this, please let me now
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #672 - 01/10/17 at 17:58:49
 
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:56:55:
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:48:01:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).


IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

Remember Shock said that mafia only gets 1 vig shot max, so assuming mafia used an extra shot last night (what I've kind of thought all day) then 42 has no shot.  Also if town used a vig shot that would tell us that someone is lying about their night actions, which makes 42 look less scummy any way you slice it.


So you agree that, if I am mafia, I do not actually HAVE a vig shot, right? If that's the case what's the harm in letting me live to N2? If I am mafia I just can't kill anyway and if I am town I either clear myself or use up a mafblock.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #673 - 01/10/17 at 18:00:01
 
42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:58:49:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:56:55:
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:48:01:
DansGame wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:43:23:
TvK, I'm all for lynching 42 tomorrow if Vinnie flips town, but J-Cop is such an obvious partner to 42 and could be mafia in so many worlds.


How big do you still estimate the chance that Vinnie is going to flip mafia? And what if J-Cop should flip town? Would you still lynch 42 then on D3? Another big problem I have with 42 is that he claims to have an extra vig shot. If he survives to N2, he's going to shoot a townie. And the worse thing is, if he gets roleblocked, he can claim that he still has a chance of being town (like I said in a previous post that Web quoted).


IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

IF A TOWN USED A VIG SHOT THEY SHOULD CLAIM NOW

Remember Shock said that mafia only gets 1 vig shot max, so assuming mafia used an extra shot last night (what I've kind of thought all day) then 42 has no shot.  Also if town used a vig shot that would tell us that someone is lying about their night actions, which makes 42 look less scummy any way you slice it.


So you agree that, if I am mafia, I do not actually HAVE a vig shot, right? If that's the case what's the harm in letting me live to N2? If I am mafia I just can't kill anyway and if I am town I either clear myself or use up a mafblock.


I'll have to think about it but I guess there's a crazy world in which you're mafia but Web's scan is not real.  Otherwise, I don't think 42 has a maf vig shot.
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Re: Mafia: Day 2
Reply #674 - 01/10/17 at 18:00:20
 
☆ᓂ wrote on 01/10/17 at 17:57:13:
TvK wrote on 01/10/17 at 14:24:38:
And another thing unrelated to Web's scan: I remember Zac being a very active poster during the game in which he was town (Shock's first game). Most of his posts were utter fluff and he never really helped us get close to uncovering mafia, but at least it showed that he didn't have anything to hide. Now in this game, Zac has been unusually quiet. I'm definitely keeping my eye on him as well.


sleeping then immediatly going to school takes time out of my day but i will try my best to beat it as i get 8 hours after school to post whatever is needed. before i was on break

as to the Questions you had earlier, got lafungus got mixed up a bit but he did vote without adding much up behind it.  for j-cop/lenny though, these low posters have voted for vinnie while having quite few posts. lenny's expectancy to post more i beleive is still here but he hasn't posted that much on anything that has been brought up on him..... jcop has posted a bit but also voted for vinnie out of the blue with no backup so this suspects him a bit.....

if you have thoughts on lenny/j-cop that may differ from this, please let me now

Lenny has been replaced by John, Lafungo has been replaced by me. Did you use an action N1?

J-Cop would be the last one who hasn’t claimed anything for N1 I think? Maybe John, don’t think he mentioned it.
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