I wrote this post as soon as I received my scan report right before D2 and tried to update it as more information became available so apologies if I've repeated some of the reasoning from other players in here.

I scanned 42 last night, and recieved a report back that he was a member of the mafia.

I waited to reveal this because I knew as soon as the information was out 42 (as mafia) would be able to react and form a strategy with the rest of his mafia buddies and I wanted to ask more questions and watch for other information first. As 42 himself said in reply #450, you can observe a maf's behavior for an additional day phase.

I chose 42 as he was aggressive early game, but completely disappeared at the end of D1 despite saying he'd return. Being a new member to the forum he was also the player I knew the least about (outside of Lenny but after his abysmal D1 there was no way I was wasting a night action other than a kill on him), and after 42 claimed he had played about 50 games previously, I knew he would likely be difficult to pin down if he happened to be mafia.

So either 42 is mafia, or I was controlled by a poster onto a different poster who happens to be mafia. Shock said 4 night actions were taken on N1. If we're assuming Vinnie's claim is legit, that also only leaves one night action left (Vinnie's scan, my scan, the extra night kill), so it seems very unlikely that it would be a control action taken against me to cloud the report.

=====(Dan brought up an interesting counterpoint to these next two paragraphs in Reply #482 but I also feel comfortable with my reasoning so I'm leaving them in)=====

If a control was used, I am almost positive that mafia would not control a night action onto one of their own. Afaik mafia don't know what actions they are moving, just the players that they are moving the actions between. What if I had a kill action and had chosen that tonight instead of my scan? They'd be risking one of their own members for little gain. So if I was controlled onto a mafia I think it has to have been by a town poster.

This is also good news because if I was controlled and the town member who controlled claims, then we've found a mafia in the player they moved my night action onto. Of course, any claim of someone controlling me can be fabricated by the mafia and Zwiebel or Racer could have also controlled my scan (control comes before shoot during the night) but both seem incredibly unilkely scenarios.

As a side note, if 42 is mafia this gives me a town lean on Dan since I agreed with Racer's point D1 that their interaction was highly unlikely to be maf-maf.

Thoughts? Also,

[vote]42[/vote]


Assuming 42 is mafia, right now my strongest town leans are (in order of strength):
- Lafungo (42 voted him immediately today on weak reasoning. Seems like an odd bus to start the day when there were better targets, remember this was before the Vinnie roleclaim)
- Dan (interaction w/42 early D1 very likely not maf-maf)
- Vinnie (based on the mafia using their nightkill and assuming his claim is correct)
- TYG (great posts at the start of D2 and I've agreed with most of his reasoning today)

My strongest maf lean is J-Cop, for reasons I've already stated in the post where I voted him and his continued suspicion on Lafungo.

That leaves one poster between TvK, Zac, and Lenny as the last mafia. If Vinnie somehow flips mafia, then it's gg.

I'm about to make my reads post (still need to read a few more posts), but I just want to mention one thing.

Lenny is almost certainly going to be modkilled for inactivity. I'd bet that even if I told him that he wouldn't come on. Don't bother with him unless he makes a post before eod.