J-Cop wrote on 01/10/17 at 11:53:13:


So Lafungo is one of your top scumreads if Vinnie is scum, and he's one of your top scumreads if Vinnie is town. Why aren't you voting him?

This game has gotten pretty depressing. Lafungo has not spoken today, Lenny has not spoken today, Vinnie is all but cleared to be town and has made no effort on his last day to spew his thoughts. Zac only has two posts today and we're halfway through D2.

If mafia wins the game, this is why.

Also I'm leaving in less than 10 minutes. Will be back tonight.

J-Cop wrote on 01/10/17 at 11:58:35:


So vote Lafungo. Unless you want to be lynched instead!

The only vote you have even placed down this game is a vote on Vinnie when the lynch was so foregone it didn't even matter. If you are in fact town, lynching Lafungo is the only way you avoid being lynched today. Do you agree?

one thing that's making me less suspicious of Lafungo as mafia is I know he's a strong player. If he was a mafia, he'd know that being inactive for this ridiculous span of time looked incredibly scummy. I don't think he'd make that mistake. He'd at least come in and post his thoughts, throw down a vote or something.

It just seems like really dumb/obvious mafia play, and I think Lafungo typically plays better than that.

Out for now.

[Shock]

Current votes:

3 - Lafungo - (42, J-Cop, Dan)
2 - J-Cop - (TvK, Web)

[/Shock]

42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 11:43:30:


This is an interesting theory. Lafungo and J-Cop have gone through D1 the same way: mostly at the sidelines. Their only difference was that J-Cop took the easy way and joined the Vinnie wagon and Lafungo went out of his way to vote you. But J-Cop's latest posts make it seem more that they aren't of the same faction. There's a lot of time left in the day and every minute Lenny doesn't post, it makes him a bigger target for a lynch. J-Cop's top two scumreads are Lafungo and Lenny (with Lafungo also having Lenny as a top scumread, or at least as a viable lynch candidate). If J-Cop and Lafungo were partners, it would make a lot more sense for him to start a new wagon, instead of joining you in voting Lafungo (especially since you're vote was the only one). So no, I don't really think J-Cop and Lafungo are both mafia.

J-Cop wrote on 01/10/17 at 11:58:35:


Well, 3 fo those 4 were on Vinnie at the end of D1. So we do have some wagonomics to analyse.

42 wrote on 01/10/17 at 11:53:27:


42 and I were the first people to start the Vinnie wagon. Dan joined in the middle. Zac voiced some concerns over Vinnie, but he never put his vote on him. If you go by experiences with wagons (assuming Vinnie is town), who would you expect to be most likely mafia?

TvK, what's your lean on 42 so far? I've found his posting today to be kind of troubling but he's pretty hard to read.

Web wrote on 01/10/17 at 12:33:48:


In general, a lot of his thoughts are quite similar to mine, and even the ones where I don't agree with him still seem to come from a town mindset. I still have him as a town lean at the moment.

I wrote this post as soon as I received my scan report right before D2 and tried to update it as more information became available so apologies if I've repeated some of the reasoning from other players in here.

I scanned 42 last night, and recieved a report back that he was a member of the mafia.

I waited to reveal this because I knew as soon as the information was out 42 (as mafia) would be able to react and form a strategy with the rest of his mafia buddies and I wanted to ask more questions and watch for other information first. As 42 himself said in reply #450, you can observe a maf's behavior for an additional day phase.

I chose 42 as he was aggressive early game, but completely disappeared at the end of D1 despite saying he'd return. Being a new member to the forum he was also the player I knew the least about (outside of Lenny but after his abysmal D1 there was no way I was wasting a night action other than a kill on him), and after 42 claimed he had played about 50 games previously, I knew he would likely be difficult to pin down if he happened to be mafia.

So either 42 is mafia, or I was controlled by a poster onto a different poster who happens to be mafia. Shock said 4 night actions were taken on N1. If we're assuming Vinnie's claim is legit, that also only leaves one night action left (Vinnie's scan, my scan, the extra night kill), so it seems very unlikely that it would be a control action taken against me to cloud the report.

=====(Dan brought up an interesting counterpoint to these next two paragraphs in Reply #482 but I also feel comfortable with my reasoning so I'm leaving them in)=====

If a control was used, I am almost positive that mafia would not control a night action onto one of their own. Afaik mafia don't know what actions they are moving, just the players that they are moving the actions between. What if I had a kill action and had chosen that tonight instead of my scan? They'd be risking one of their own members for little gain. So if I was controlled onto a mafia I think it has to have been by a town poster.

This is also good news because if I was controlled and the town member who controlled claims, then we've found a mafia in the player they moved my night action onto. Of course, any claim of someone controlling me can be fabricated by the mafia and Zwiebel or Racer could have also controlled my scan (control comes before shoot during the night) but both seem incredibly unilkely scenarios.

As a side note, if 42 is mafia this gives me a town lean on Dan since I agreed with Racer's point D1 that their interaction was highly unlikely to be maf-maf.

Thoughts? Also,

[vote]42[/vote]


Assuming 42 is mafia, right now my strongest town leans are (in order of strength):
- Lafungo (42 voted him immediately today on weak reasoning. Seems like an odd bus to start the day when there were better targets, remember this was before the Vinnie roleclaim)
- Dan (interaction w/42 early D1 very likely not maf-maf)
- Vinnie (based on the mafia using their nightkill and assuming his claim is correct)
- TYG (great posts at the start of D2 and I've agreed with most of his reasoning today)

My strongest maf lean is J-Cop, for reasons I've already stated in the post where I voted him and his continued suspicion on Lafungo.

That leaves one poster between TvK, Zac, and Lenny as the last mafia. If Vinnie somehow flips mafia, then it's gg.