It's usually best to out cop reports towards the end of the day that way you can observe a confirmed mafia's behavior for essentially an entire extra day phase. You won't get as many interactions if you just come straight out with a guilty report straight away.

I'm saying too much already. I need to keep my damn mouth shut about optimal strategic play here.

But it's best to out mafia reports. Small chance they were redirected but if they were redirected by a town member they should also be speaking up so it's not the worst thing in the world.

Vinnie927 wrote on 01/09/17 at 20:20:12:


If this is true this is great. Unfortunately this makes me less certain about the Vinnie lynch...

There's also the scenario where maf Vinnie gives us false info to try and make us waste a day.

Not sure, either way though I feel like webs would be town? If that makes sense??

Anyway this also means town only has to vig left assuming one of the n kills was maf...

DansGame wrote on 01/09/17 at 03:09:08:

My strongest maf leans are Vinnie and Lenny.  My thoughts on Lenny have nothing to do with Vinnie's alignment, so if Vinnie flips town, I would still be in favor of lynching Lenny.  He could possibly change my opinion if he shows up and contributes well, but if he continues to do nothing, he'll stay on my scum list.

My read on Lafungo is a little less independent of Vinnie's alignment because it looked like he may have been trying to draw attention away from Vinnie, but the main point there was his weak case against 42.  It was out of the blue with no solid reasoning, and it's the only contribution he made on day 1.

If I had to pick one or the other to lynch today, I would pick Lenny because as I said, my read on him has nothing to do with Vinnie, while my read on Lafungo is slightly dependent on Vinnie being maf.

yeah I think maf using their kill as early as possible makes a lot of sense, so unfortunately that really makes me feel like Vinnie's town, unless some clueless townie shot Zwiebel/Zac.

Web wrote on 01/09/17 at 20:36:13:

minor correction: unless some clueless townie shot Zwiebel/Racer.

Off for the night.

LewisRichards wrote on 01/09/17 at 20:45:08:


it seems weird to address this from my perspective, but Racer also had shifted his opinion of me to an unsure/maf lean by the end of the day so his night killing seems to support that setup for a Web ML

LewisRichards wrote on 01/09/17 at 20:50:40:


Well you aren't going to get an analysis from me until day 3 since I don't know what he'll flip. If that's too much for you to handle then oh well. I'm not wasting my time analyzing someone who based on general consensus probably flips town anyway. And looking at interactions is only really best at ruling out m/m.

Off for real now.

btw I'll be on for another hour or so, and then I'll probably be off until around noon EST tomorrow.

Web wrote on 01/09/17 at 21:03:17:

Being a so called "townhunter" isn't a bad thing.  Brett said the same thing to me about himself, that he is much better and figuring out who is town than who is maf.  If you have a list of people who you are certain are town, you can then look at everyone else and have fewer people to pick between to find scum.

LewisRichards wrote on 01/09/17 at 21:05:07:

yeah I agree, I definitely think that the attention would have been heavily focused on me today if not for that role claim, it's the perfect setup. Zwiebel's read on Lafungo wasn't strong and may have just been a "test" for me but I think that Lafungo could also be a potential setup for future ML, as he didn't have the greatest D1. That's subject to change based on his contributions today though.

Okay, if I were to assign percentages I think it would look very interesting... so 10 people left including Vinnie, everyone starts with 70% here.

There is 700% total to be assigned.

Me 100% (from my perspective obviously, and yes it is necessary to put here because I eant to asdign all 700%)

For the sake of how I think the day should play out Vinnie and Webs get 100% also.

So now we have 7 people left with 400% left to assign

If we assume 42 and Dan is impossible maf maf it means there's a 100% chance there's a town between them and I think it's fair to give them both 50% of the difference between 70 and 100. So the each get 85% for now. Although I currently don't like 42's play rn so perhaps that can be addressed some other time after this post sunce I would really like to figure out these percents here.

Now we have 230% left to assign to the remaing 5.

These 5 are

Lenny Unreadable for now, I give him equal odds at this point in the analysis whuch is 46% town

Zac: Unreadable for now, I give him equal odds at this point in the analysis which is 46% town

Suddenly the last 3 aren't looking too good solely from this... only 138% remaining

TvK: Assuming Vinnie is town at this point makes TvK look good because I don't think maf TvK would've pushed that hard... although the eay he played it maf Vinnie looks good also. I give a town read 68% (slightly for the sake of make numbers better for last 2)

J-Cop and Lafungo now...

Neither that active, J-Cop not only barely posting but from what I've sern so far not that much quality. Lafungo also not active, has mostly tried for the "harder reads"? For a lack of a better term and made an odd read on 42 solely on meta... I'm really not sure on these 2 and they both look scummy to me based on lack of posts so I give them equal odds which splits the remaing 70% at 35% each.

I don't know how much value this post adds to people but I like to think it helps myself gather my own thouggts at the very least.