Yoshistar, are you even following the day phases? Day ends in 13 and a half hours

no control wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:10:41:


Is that one of the few posts ALAK made about TYG? I actually found it interesting as well that he didn't care much him but then forgot about it due to other stuff in the game. People should pay attention to this.

Yoshistar™ wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:12:55:


This makes me wonder. Are TYG and YS both mafia and do they know it's inevitable that one of them is going to be the lynch today? Did the third (arguably the most experienced) maf member tell them to only look at eachother in order to make the other one look better if one of them does get lynched? Or is YS the maf member of the two and he's grasping at the only straw he has left: that TYG could be lynched over him? No matter how bad TYG's last bunch of posts are, it's remarkable that he is not just attacking the most obvious target for the day (Yoshistar). Any opinions on these possibilities?

Another interesting thing. Tvk (#781) and Tyg (#804) made 2 big posts in which main suspect is Zwiebel. No one spoke of Zwiebel much before so no bussing.

Tvk/zwiebel are not m/m and TYG and Zwiebel are not m/m.

However, this do connects TYG and TvK once more (possible D1 save) despite TvK going pretty hard on TYG. Another thing that caught my eye is quality of TYG #804. Zwiebel and John found some mistakes, but compared to TYG posts in the past i can say that this is the best TYG post i have seen in 3 games. If you are town  .
On the other hand this can be a sign of coaching.

Would m/m Tvk and Tyg combo go on Zwiebel out of nowhere? i don't think so. It would only be possible if Tvk,TYG and YS are m/m/m. I don't think this is the case, because Alak TYg (either m/m or t/t) connection i believe in.

no control wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:10:41:

Yoshistar wasn't mafia in either of the two games prior to this. I believe there's a really good chance if we put a lot of heat on him right now he will make a really really obvious slip, like Web's slip was. There are still 13 hours left, if people comtribute then it's enough time to push YS and still look elsewhere.

no control wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:25:42:


I don’t know if you followed that well, but I put a ton of heat on TvK for not pushing on YS at all, as well as some other things. I then asked TvK his read of Zwiebel while he was still under pressure. I don't think you can completely throw out that they could be m/m. I think it's less likely that TYG and Zwiebel are m/m, no one specifically asked TYG his opinion of Zwiebel before he gave him a strong scumread.

Yoshistar™ wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:28:34:


Posts like this where you are talking about irrelevant stuff doesn't make you look townish at all. Drop the time issue and give us some comments of the game. In case you haven't notice NO ONE would have much problem with you being lynched today.

What are your thoughts on Zwiebel and Tvk?

Give me percentage, what is the chance of them being mafia? Elaborate and please don't give me i'm not sure because it is 2nd half of D2 and you should have an opinion on everyone.

Yoshistar™ wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:28:34:


Is there any reason you are being more quiet than previous games? Was that TvK's idea or yours?

no control wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:10:41:


Just pointing out that TvK attacked YS after people were suspicious of the possible connection between them.

Zoran unless I missed it you haven't said too much about TvK.  What are your thoughts on him?  I think he could easily be scumbuddies with YS.

To quickly summarize my points:
- In D1, TvK specifically points out that being an experienced player does not make you more or less likely to be mafia, just better at hiding it if you are one.
- In D2, TvK lists 4 of the most experienced players as his 4 top town reads.  This would include himself in his reads because he wants us to think he's town, so to him in this post that makes 5 very experienced players his top town reads.  This despite the fact that SG was a night kill which is a kill that I don't think an all-inexperienced mafia team makes.
- After I called him out on it, his defense was that he doesn't consider things like night kills as much as he does stuff that happens during the day, and he likes to pressure weaker players so that it can lead him to the more experienced players.  He pressured PAF, Racer, and TYG today.  Yet he didn't quote YS to ask him a single question today by that point.  Red flags anyone?
- Yoshistar's first reads of the day included thinking that TvK was playing his usual town game and saying that he'd "be damned" if TvK flips mafia.  No one else thinks that a town Yoshistar would be very wary of TvK being mafia?

Before all this pressure was happening on a possible YS/TvK partnership, TvK was saying that TYG would be the best lynch of the day as he was most likely to be scum.  I think there is absolutely a world where TvK is mafia with YS and knows that both top lynch candidates yesterday (Leone and TYG) are town and he says that he is suspicious of the people who wagoned TYG both to give himself towncred, and to lynch TYG today, have him flip town, and be able to reverse his opinion that he gave today that the TYG wagon was clean.

no control wrote on 08/14/16 at 06:06:32:


It might not be likely but it's still possible.

If TvK and Zwiebel are m/m, TvK could absolutely push hard on Zwiebel.  He knows it's highly, highly unlikely that Zwiebel is getting lynched today but if he's mafia, he has to get the conversation off of himself.  Maybe he thinks that the reverse will happen of the Leone/John thing, that if TvK gets lynched as a mafia member at some point, it will make Zwiebel look more townie that he went after him, which you are buying into already if that is the case.  I'm not at all saying this possibility is a thing, I'm just saying that you can't throw it out like I believe you can throw some other m/m possibilities out.

DansGame wrote on 08/14/16 at 06:15:53:


Obviously Zwiebel is nowhere near a lynch candidate for the day. I don't think we have much of a chance to lynch outside of TYG/YS, with possibly me and Kyle as 3rd or 4th option. What I do want to illustrate are the connection between the people currently in the hotseat and the people quietly riding the waves. It's a pity that I seem to be unable to convince you of being town, and following that, you will take all of my posts with a grain of salt, but I'd be more than happy to die for the greater good if that will give me the credibility needed. However, I am one of the best players at digging through old posts and finding connections that others might look over or not pay attention to. Who are the people, at this point, that don't fit in any of your possible maf teams, Dan?

TvK wrote on 08/14/16 at 06:28:21:

List of alive players other than myself (in no particular order):
Alaktorn
Zwiebel
John
TvK
Zoran
YS
TYG
Kyle
Racer
PAF

There's no one alive that I think is completely town-cleared in my view.  For me today is coming up with possible theories.  I still need to go back and really evaluate PAF and Racer.  While I have gotten a town read on both of them, there's no doubt that PAF specifically has made some bad posts.  I am pretty sure that you and Racer are m/m, same goes for TYG and Zwiebel.  I remember saying awhile ago that I don't think John and Alaktorn are m/m, I'd have to revisit old pages for the exact reason why I thought that (probably having to do with John going hard after Alaktorn). Have to go out now so I can't give you any more than that rn.