TvK
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I'm so sorry guys, I really thought that Leone was going to flip scum last night. And on top of that we fucking lose our cop. We really need to get it right today, or we're going to have a really hard time winning this game.
Anyway, the best thing we can do right now is analyse the wagonomics of the previous day. I think it's best to divide the people voting Leone into different categories. I've got a feeling that at least 2 and possibly even the entire scumteam was on this wagon.
I've put Kyle between brackets because he could be put in either category 2 or 3.
1. The instigators: TvK, PAF, ALAKTORN, Dan 2. The second wave: John, TYG(, Kyle) 3. The latecomers: (Kyle,) TYG, Sportsguy, PAF, Racer
There are two ways that a wagon on a townsperson can take off: either mafia started the wagon, together with some townspeople, with another member soon joining. Or townspeople started the wagon and some opportunistic maf members made sure it got up to speed. In either case, the people in the 2nd group are the first ones to look at.
Anyway, I'm still having a lot of trouble seeing either Dan or ALAK as mafia. I must admit that the end of day shenanigans have changed my townread on PAF to a neutral and even a slight af read. At first I was fine with him switching to Dan, but his unvote a couple of hours before the end of day didn't make sense at all, and felt a lot like a coasting scum. And finally his final vote onto now a confirmed town member, even after switching off of this confirmed town member earlier in the day, has got some of my scumlights flashing.
It's fitting that both of the people in the middle group were also Leone's top two scumreads. I'll have to look back at John's exact posts, but I feel like he found himself an easy road onto Leone's wagon and was happy enough to stay there all day, without getting any heat himself. Even worse is TYG, who even unvoted Leone, only to put his vote back on him when his own wagon started taking off.
I don't think Kyle's vote is too much to look at at this point, because in my eyes it felt quite genuine. PAF's vote is bad for reasons I have already explained above. Sportsguy is confirmed town now, so I don't think analysing his vote is worth it. But then Racer. Normally I would say this is the vote of a townsperson, because it wouldn't make any sense for a maf member to put an extra vote on someone who was already always goign to be the lynch. But it's exactly the fact that I got to this conclusion so quickly that I started questioning this. Kyle had already voiced his concern about Racer, and I'm inclined to follow him in this. This is someting that can very easily be planned in the mafia chat, and it's something that can render a lot of free towncred. I'm very much keeping my eyes on Racer at this point.
In my next post, I'll analyse the other wagon movement.
Tl;dr: TYG is the most scummy person on this wagon, followed by a tie between John, PAF and Racer.
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