DansGame wrote on 08/12/16 at 05:39:55: 
Leone wrote on 08/12/16 at 01:18:14:Actually, yeah Dan, Zoran, John, would you care to answer #318 as well? thx
Could you evaluate my post 312? For me the fact that Alaktorn pushed so incredibly hard as m/m would make you a good lynch today in my opinion. I would like you to specifically evaluate my logic about the scenario where you are lynched and flip town. What happens to the rest of us then? Otherwise, I have to think more about other possible lynches.
DansGame wrote on 08/11/16 at 21:22:01:1. Leone flips mafia. I look absolutely horrible tomorrow, Alaktorn's claims that I panicked look really good tomorrow. I get lynched on D2, and flip vanilla town. I would take that as a member of the town, because I know that at least Leone got lynched.
If I flip maf, then you and Racer are basically screwed because you've both defended me.
Quote:2. Leone flips town. Because of how hard Alaktorn has been pushing on me and Leone being m/m 100%, this result would have to make him seriously reconsider his analysis of the game. Part of his suspicions of me are based on thinking that my defensive play was a sign of panicking that Leone and I were both m/m and under heavy suspicion. He's pushed so hard on this idea that he loses credibility tomorrow if Leone were to flip town and would likely not be able to lead me to a mislynch as his logic was not trusted.
Let's say I flip town.
-John, TYG, ALAK, and PAF look bad, but for different reasons. John, PAF and TYG wagoned on me rather eagerly imo. ALAK just went all-out on me, absolutely convinced I was maf. This does make him have to reevaluate his game plan, and will hopefully make him target other players like SG John TYG for weird posts. Racer's motives for defending me would be called into question as well, as he seems to imply that, quote, "the posts I made could only come from town play." Not sure yet who else would be impacted.
Quote:In both scenarios I feel like Alaktorn is town. In scenario 1, he would have been bussing a partner on D1 even when he had gone even harder after a town member. He was one of the first people to go after Leone IIRC. I don't see how it's possible that he and Leone are both m/m. In scenario 2, Alaktorn knows that Leone and I are both town, so he knows that his convictions will look weaker to everyone else by insisting on being certain that Leone and I are m/m, yet he does that anyway. This is not mafia trying to set up a mislynch chain, which I feel he may have been able to do if he was not so insistent on Leone and I both being mafia together.
Quote:Yes, as sportsguy brought up, there is a bizzaro world where Alaktorn and I are both mafia together orchestrating this whole thing. I don't know how you guys would read me in that scenario, but just look at all of Alaktorn's posts towards me. Do you really feel like they're indicative of m/m? I don't know how anyone could look at us and honestly believe that.
yeah this alak/dan m/m thing (without slips from both of them) seems like a tinfoil-hat conspiracy theory. I agree w/ TvK that this was t/t nonsense.
Quote:nyway, for the reasons I laid out, the fact that there is a Leone wagon that is strong and the fact that both Alaktorn and I are on it, is not a good thing for the real mafia. This is where I need help, though, because from my perspective I am trying to figure out what the next play would be for the real mafia knowing this is.
This doesn't add up, because if having everyone on my tail and me flipping maf is so bad for the maf, why haven't any counter-wagons developed outside the Dan one?
Quote:If Leone is actually town, then yeah they could of course still try to mislynch me tomorrow. However they would be doing this knowing Alaktorn would probably be reconsidering things, and also if Leone is actually town then it also makes Alaktorn town because of reasons I previously covered in this post about Alaktorn pushing the certainty of Leone and I as m/m and because he could have set up the mislynch chain himself as the one pushing on me, but didn't try to do that. However, if Leone is town then mafia gains a mislynch on him and maybe they still think that they try and make me look scummy in the future and can do that. I just don't see them being able to do it on D2, but I need to consider this scenario more (which is why I said earlier that I need to better consider what might happen if Leone were lynched and flipped town).
If I'm lynched and flip town, that will throw Alak into a frenzied disarray and he'll go off on everyone else. Assuming ALAK is town for the sake of the argument, and assuming you're town, wouldn't the maf try much harder to get you or someone else mislynched (since our wagons are close in size), since you've both contributed a lot more already? Or, do you think the maf would want to keep you alive as a scumshield/to mislynch you later on? If I'm lynched today, the maf may still kill the person with the best leads overnight, so if your leans hold water you may be dead by D2 anyway.
Alak thinking I'm 100% maf is obviously a misread, so the maf may want to keep him alive longer if he's town.
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