I have been reading for a past few hours, some thoughts:
1st i will address PAF since some asked:
I already talked about his bad beginning, here is continuation:
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/11/16 at 12:12:41:Right now my biggest maf lean is Leone. Nonsense (?) reasoning, possibly trying to defend Dan (who i still have a slight mafia lean) and then gives misreading as an excuse which may be fake. Not to mention his inactivity, but that may be legit...
[vote]Leone[/vote]
I also agree with ALAK about Dan, he did make at least 3 defensive posts.
Biggest lean is Leone based on POSSIBLY trying to defend Dan who is a SLIGHT mafia lean. So it looks to me you are saying the guy is your biggest mafia lean because he is possibly defending your slight mafia lean. This is crazy.
It is interesting that Tvk voted for Leone just 4 minutes prior to this.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/11/16 at 13:53:22:I think it's likely that he's bussing, why the hell not? Specially considering how Leone (apparently) tried to defend Dan.
On the other hand, as I thought more about Dan's posts my maf lean on him decreases...
Ok 1st part of the post if fine, but the 2nd one. If your slight maf lean is decreasing, how is your other maf lean based on that one still your biggest maf lean? This doesn't make much sense.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/11/16 at 14:25:25:Eh... okay good point. If Dan were scum with Leone I don't think he would've let Leone post like this. Dan is practically neutral in my point of view now.
Dan all the way down to neutral.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/11/16 at 15:27:38:Also I've been reading the Dan/ALAK interaction and it seems most likely t/m, altough there's a chance it's t/t. Too elaborated for m/m. Can't tell which one is maf tho...
One thing I'd like to point out is that Dan has said that he himself has been himself for town and posted a lot.... and he said it 3 times. Would a good townie do this? Seems a bit arrogant...
He also posted (not exact quote, this may be taken different posts) "im vanilla townie so it's not a problem if i get lynched but if you think im maf then either ur maf or you suck". Eh... really?
Ok, back to Dan now, Leone vote seams a bit more reasonable.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/11/16 at 15:36:39:Not sure if this is relevant but notice he's the only one to feel like claiming to be a vanilla. Not that I expect actual roleclaims for cop or doctor; but this is noticeable forom my point of view.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/11/16 at 16:00:15:Dan you need to explain why you were arrogant about how helpful you were and also explain the post I quoted.
Just continues to step on everyone top 2 favorite suspect.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/12/16 at 04:08:47:I've reading and rereading posts (mostly since I left)...
My maf lean on Dan has increased due to ALAK's reply #284 and Zwiebel's posts; he's definitely top-2 maf in my point of view now (with Leone being likely #1).
I do think there's a low chance they're both maf. I think TvK has explained this before.
After all, my leans are far from definitive. I believe there's a chance Dan is town, but the same goes from Leone.
I still haven't analyzed Leone completely, I don't think he's answered everything...
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/12/16 at 05:05:27:Okay, so i went rereading some posts to find out why Dan voted Leone in the first place. He originally just voted (for the same reasons as everyone else?) and then made a post how a Leone wagon would give information (see reply #176)...
The most likely scenario (in my point of view) is that Dan is the only maf. Yes, I do think there's a bigger chance that Dan is mad and Leone is town, after all is misreading excuse might have been legit and got confused due to no time. ALAK would be town due to his interaction with Dan.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/12/16 at 05:05:55:Oh, and
[vote]Dan[/vote]
Keeps on bashing everyone top 2 favorite suspects.
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/12/16 at 05:07:16:Anyway, I think we've been focusing too much on these guys, some people deserve more pressure...
Yes, you have been following the flow since the start, it is time to make your own conclusions.
Here are 3 phases of PAFs game:
Part 1: Bad beginning (i have talked about this before)
Part 2: Leone vote (reasoning very bad)
Part 3 Just goes with the flow and keeps on bashing Dan and Leone
Zoran, what combination of Leone and I being town or mafia makes PAF likely mafia?
If Leone and I are both town I don't think PAF reconsiders about me and switches his vote to me as a mafia. He just doesn't need to do that, he can safely stay on Leone.
If Leone is mafia and I am town it's possible he may have been mafia bussing Leone for town cred, and then switching to me to get a mislynch, but I don't see a first time player going after Leone like that initially.
If Leone and I are both mafia then he'd be bussing both of his partners D1 if he were mafia...Just doesn't seem like good play to me.
And just by the amount PAF has been contributing compared to the amount he normally posts on the forums at all, he seems town to me.