Zwiebel wrote on 08/11/16 at 19:27:34:You don't convince me Dan. You say Racer is scum for going for someone else than the wagon? I think that's a rather Town thing to do, not like Leone was answering and at that point just waiting for him would be a waste of time, why not pressure someone who has not received any pressure yet?
I'd like to hear the other's thoughts about Dan as well, what do you think of his claim, do you think he could lead us to victory if he was Town? Would you lynch him today?
My Racer read is assuming that I got lynched and someone pushed the heat off of Leone. That hasn't happened yet so I don't necessarily think Racer is top mafia or anything.
Zwiebel, you might think I'm a terrible player. You might think that my choices were terrible today if I actually was vanilla town, which I am, and I can understand why you don't think so. However, I want you to consider things from my perspective if I were to be a member of town, which I am. I'm not asking you to town read me, but I want you to get a clear picture of what things should be like in my head in that scenario.
Alaktorn and I went after each other earlier in the day and he goes hard after Leone as well. To the point where he is 100% convinced that Leone and I are not m/m. Alaktorn in the beginning of the day went after me by far the hardest of anyone going after anyone. I am a member of the town, and I hear this and am voting for Leone. From my perspective as a member of the town, one of two things will happen if Leone gets lynched:
1. Leone flips mafia. I look absolutely horrible tomorrow, Alaktorn's claims that I panicked look really good tomorrow. I get lynched on D2, and flip vanilla town. I would take that as a member of the town, because I know that at least Leone got lynched.
2. Leone flips town. Because of how hard Alaktorn has been pushing on me and Leone being m/m 100%, this result would have to make him seriously reconsider his analysis of the game. Part of his suspicions of me are based on thinking that my defensive play was a sign of panicking that Leone and I were both m/m and under heavy suspicion. He's pushed so hard on this idea that he loses credibility tomorrow if Leone were to flip town and would likely not be able to lead me to a mislynch as his logic was not trusted.
In both scenarios I feel like Alaktorn is town. In scenario 1, he would have been bussing a partner on D1 even when he had gone even harder after a town member. He was one of the first people to go after Leone IIRC. I don't see how it's possible that he and Leone are both m/m. In scenario 2, Alaktorn knows that Leone and I are both town, so he knows that his convictions will look weaker to everyone else by insisting on being certain that Leone and I are m/m, yet he does that anyway. This is not mafia trying to set up a mislynch chain, which I feel he may have been able to do if he was not so insistent on Leone and I both being mafia together.
Yes, as sportsguy brought up, there is a bizzaro world where Alaktorn and I are both mafia together orchestrating this whole thing. I don't know how you guys would read me in that scenario, but just look at all of Alaktorn's posts towards me. Do you really feel like they're indicative of m/m? I don't know how anyone could look at us and honestly believe that.
Anyway, for the reasons I laid out, the fact that there is a Leone wagon that is strong and the fact that both Alaktorn and I are on it, is not a good thing for the real mafia. This is where I need help, though, because from my perspective I am trying to figure out what the next play would be for the real mafia knowing this is.
If Leone is actually town, then yeah they could of course still try to mislynch me tomorrow. However they would be doing this knowing Alaktorn would probably be reconsidering things, and also if Leone is actually town then it also makes Alaktorn town because of reasons I previously covered in this post about Alaktorn pushing the certainty of Leone and I as m/m and because he could have set up the mislynch chain himself as the one pushing on me, but didn't try to do that. However, if Leone is town then mafia gains a mislynch on him and maybe they still think that they try and make me look scummy in the future and can do that. I just don't see them being able to do it on D2, but I need to consider this scenario more (which is why I said earlier that I need to better consider what might happen if Leone were lynched and flipped town).
If Leone is mafia, then mafia loses a member and Alaktorn is still likely towncleared based on his initial reactions to Leone and based on the fact that he is still voting on Leone even though he could be voting for me. This scenario would obviously be bad for mafia.
For those reasons, I feel like a Leone lynch is not good for mafia either way. I think it is likely that after Alaktorn pushed so hard on me and Leone being m/m, the mafia wanted to go in other directions with the lynches, and still may want to, although this discussion is now out in the open so it would have to be done covertly. I am going to go back and look through who was scumreading Leone exactly initially even before the heat was pushed on him, who hopped on the Leone wagon, and who was active during that point in time among other things. That is what makes me possibly suspicious of someone like Racer, or also someone like Zoran perhaps, for keeping his vote on PAF (need to look more into that).
Zwiebel, I am vanilla town. If I am lynched or night killed you will have to consider things from the perspective I am talking about at some point, but otherwise know that I need to consider things for myself. Put yourself in my shoes. Where am I wrong about my logic on the Leone lynchwagon? What do I need to keep thinking about?
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