no control wrote on 08/12/16 at 06:05:54:


Zoran, in your #352 you even say the bolded part: that ALAK started attacking Dan and PAF came in and chose ALAK's side of the discussion.

In #845 you say you really didn't like ALAK D1 and you're shocked by his reaction to Leone flipping town. But you also say you like a ALAK better, and you choose an interaction between PAF and ALAK where ALAK points out the TMI thing at the start of D1 and PAF not knowing what pocketing is to illustrate that ALAK has a good chance of being town.

no control wrote on 08/17/16 at 09:00:49:


You use the same post once again (the TMI) to conclude that PAF and ALAK cannot be m/m. Are you really that convinced by the one post? You say you don't think they can be m/m, but does that mean you think one of them is maf? If so, do you think it's PAF?

This is my post on 3rd person, John. I want to know, who is whos scum buddy. I see zwiebel and Tvk as t/m or m/t. I want ot see what other connections are possible.

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/12/16 at 07:51:25:


Not much info on Tvk, Alak more likely maf, less likely m/m. Zwiebel is doing active scumhunting...don't make me laugh.


johnboy81918 wrote on 08/13/16 at 11:52:57:


Few posts discussing with Tvk, would m/m combo do this?

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/13/16 at 12:16:07:


Not talking kind of Alak - less likely m/m

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/16/16 at 17:45:05:


Voted kyle, setting up Alak for a mislynch? If Alak turns town, this adds up to Zwiebel-John theory

CONCLUSION:

As i said before, there was 1 great post from John on YS D1 which makes me think he is less likely maf. Kyle vite D3 doesn't help.

Alak/John m/m combo is impossible.
Paf/John very unlikely - i have to look more into it
TVk/John i don't think so - i have to look more into it

Most likely scum buddy is Zwiebel. If i had to chose another one right now it would be Tvk.

I need more time to study John.

no control wrote on 08/17/16 at 09:23:59:


Why do you like his vote? He had his vote on Zwiebel yesterday, with an incredibly cheap reason (pressure) only to switch back to a town member? Now he starts the day the same way as he did yesterday. And he didn't even seem upset or anything he just said "OMG that EoD", while questioning ALAK's motives. Still Zwiebel "seems the most suspicious". Apparently, his big post about Kyle now is something made by a manipulation expert.

Note once again how he still holds the door open to switch his vote. Acutally, note that throughout the game, PAF HAS NEVER MADE A FIRM STANCE ON EVERYBODY. Which is exactly what I would expect a noob mafia member to do to survive. And look at this, it's even working.

Look for example at his Kyle vote at the end of D2:

P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/14/16 at 16:03:58:


He's clearly defending YS and he can't even convince himself that he should be finding Kyle scummy. He is clearly making a choice between Kyle and YS (and TYG), so how can he justify going for Kyle after YS flipped scum? He clearly didn't think they were buddies here.

no control wrote on 08/17/16 at 09:35:37:

I'm here. And boy, lynching Kyle was a bad mistake. But I guess the doc makes up for it.  

I quoted this post because look at John's first post that Xoran quoted. It reads, "I don't think Dan's wagon was Maf lead, because YS was the one to start it."
Did I read that right? Is that soft protecting his scumbuddy YS? After that he tried to dismiss it by calling YS a Maf or noob town, but I think the damage was done. Iirc, YS never really talked about John, is that the smart player in the Maf group trying to save his buddy by telling YS never to really mention him? I find this interesting. John is looking pretty scummy right now.

D2 posts

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/13/16 at 06:34:00:


I like that he called out YS there, but then again everyone wanted YS to contribute more. Says Alak is his biggest scumread, thinks one of Dan/Alak is probably Maf, more likely Alak. At that point, Dan wasn't cleared, but he was considered Town by most people iirc. It's kinda smiliar with the Alak/Kyle has to be m/t theory now...since kyle flipped Town, John will probably push for Alak now?

With all that interaction, I think m/m is pretty unlikely for that pairing. Either m/t or t/t.



P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/13/16 at 06:49:13:


You realized it would look scummy? Before going to sleep I would hope that we lynched Maf, not about if I looked scummy for voting...also, it seems like he just votes Alak because he has to.

At this point, I'm surprised no one pushed for a wagon on alak ever. PAF and John both had Alak very high on their list, and yes they voted for him, but they never insisted or tried harder to get him as a lynching candidate. I think if anything John tried harder, PAF just follows the trend every day.

DansGame wrote on 08/13/16 at 06:54:00:


Dan saying Alak/John is probably t/m based on the interaction. Just to keep it in mind.


DansGame wrote on 08/13/16 at 07:06:04:


Dan insisting on the fact that if TYG flips Town TvK would be much more likely Maf. And who dies N2? Dan...

Maybe Dan was on the right track and that's why they killed him? Even tho YS got lynched, TYG basically got cleared by that. I can definitely see that, TvK/John pairing probability going up for me right now.


P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/13/16 at 07:49:32:


Defending TvK here? Anyone can slip, doesn't matter how good you are. The probability gets lower the more experience you have, but I wouldn't just rule it out because someone is good. Could be m/m defending.


DansGame wrote on 08/13/16 at 09:06:10:


Strengthens my theory that maf killed Dan because he was too close. He said that he thinks one Maf is inside {Yoshistar, Zoran, Zwiebel}, which is probably correct(unless Zoran is a god). Keep in mind, he also voted for TvK and tried to push for him(even if it was just for pressure). I think they would definitely feel pressured from him.


Racer727 wrote on 08/13/16 at 09:56:45:


This post just seems genuine to me, also there's a lot of truth to what he says. Why would he say such a thing then they're both maf? Racer/TvK pairing more unlikely to me.


TvK wrote on 08/13/16 at 10:20:34:


Is that actual frustration? Racer says YS is more likely maf than kyle and he has suspicions on TvK, trying to stop his thought process from getting them both lynched? Racer gettin a lot more Town cred right now reading back to this.


P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/13/16 at 10:22:30:


Jumps on TvK, but only gives him "a small maf lean, close to neutral". Could be bussing. Esp since he doesn't follow up on it.


P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/13/16 at 10:29:29:


Bolded the important part. First he says he gives TvK a small maf lean, then he 360's and says Racer is maybe maf for pressuring TvK? I don't understand.


ALAKTORN wrote on 08/13/16 at 13:47:24:


Makes Alak/TvK more unlikely imo.Could be bussing, but why point that out if you're both m/m? Might as well just not post anything to that if you're both maf. Good point on TvK.


P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/13/16 at 14:21:31:


Notice, this happens JUST when TvK jumped on the YS wagon...I'm pretty sure at that point Maf gave up on YS and just tried to throw him under the bus to gain Town cred. Is it really coincidence that happens just at about the same time for them to change opinions? I think this is one of the most important things I found. Makes PAF/TvK very likely for me.

P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/14/16 at 04:49:37:


Again, he says TvK is kinda scummy, YS is scummy, but don't vote them out, vote TYG instead! At least he gives arguments for it...still, certainly doesn't look good to me.


P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/14/16 at 05:21:31:


giving more Towncred to TvK if YS flips Maf. AND saying he feels better about YS now. This almost feels to easy to be true LOL


TvK wrote on 08/14/16 at 13:19:01:


Remember, he went for TYG D2, not YS. I think it was an attempt to maybe save YS until D3 and then lynch him off after TYG flips to waste another day with discussion about YS.


P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/14/16 at 16:03:58:


We already went over why this was terrible. Seeing that kyle was Town, even more terrible. Don't think I have to add to this.


johnboy81918 wrote on 08/14/16 at 17:08:07:


less likely for John to be Maf I think, cause he could vote kyle here to get 4-3 on kyle. Could be major bussing on YS but idk if that's what maf would do at that point when it's 3-3 YS Kyle.

DansGame wrote on 08/14/16 at 17:28:14:


Also, Dan was pretty adamant about PAF's play EoD2 and before. Another reason they might've killed him in the night.

P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/17/16 at 06:37:06:

I wanted to meme it up. I didn’t think anybody would suddenly start panicking and switch votes. The fact that John never voted and Timur switched to TvK may be important information, dunno.

no control wrote on 08/17/16 at 09:20:50:

Eh, sorry. I think Leone and Kyle played FAR worse than me. They’re the whole reason why my play has been bad, they looked scummy to the majority of Town, not just to me. Also you said you started the YS wagon but idk about that, all I remember is me making a big post about YS/Kyle/TvK. You made the first vote but I don’t remember you pushing YS at all.

no control wrote on 08/17/16 at 09:20:50:

I’d probably vote TvK in this case. Can you go through the flip implication for both of them again?

Zwiebel wrote on 08/17/16 at 11:10:32:

You say PAF/TvK are the most likely while Zoran says they’re not likely. I want to see Zoran reply to this. I think Zoran is more Townie than you are, but I agree with your analysis of them more than the one of Zoran.

It’s amazing how I’m not getting pressured at all, I thought I was gonna be the lynch. And I’m certain Mafia thought I was gonna be the lynch too, otherwise they would’ve killed me in the night to make sure there was no Doctor protect (after that EoD, who the fuck would protect me?). I thought the Mafia especially would try to put pressure on me, but I’m surprised to not see very much of it.


Can someone link me all the big Yoshistar posts analyses? I think Zoran made one… I need to re-read his posts with a fresh mind.

Okay, so excluding near-cleared townies and myself, here are the alive players:
TvK, ALAK, Zwiebel, John, Racer
Not sure about Racer, but I tend towards town for him, so I'll ignore him to look at the more likely maf pairings, there are 6 of them.
Really unlikely m/m pairings:

TvK/Zwiebel
ALAK/John
ALAK/TvK
Zwiebel/ALAK

I think some people (including myself) already explained why the last one is unlikely. Otherwise, it was explained in the latest posts my Zoran or Zwiebel or already deduced before.
The remaining:

TvK/John
Zwiebel/John

I think the latter is much more likely. From some posts I read, the two seem to not mention much of each other. Seems like maf distancing to me. One of the few things was John saying Timur actively scum hunts. I admit I could have said so myself at the time, but in reality, Timur wasn't that active and at the time he only focused on some people... I feel like this is defense.
Another thing is, I expect both scum to bus on YS on D2. Guess what, they were the only ones who voted him, aside from (near-)confirmed townies!

I guess I should vote John seeing as he's more likely to be maf, but I'm not sure if TvK/John is likely at all...
Anyway,
[vote]John[/vote]

P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/17/16 at 12:16:50:


Wowowowow? This is the second time PAF has voted Zwiebel and the minute somebody questions his vote, he does a 180 and goes for somebody else.

uuuh wtf, obviously it's meant to be John / Zwiebel...red text strikes again

I know you think I'm Maf TvK, but in a world where I am Town, who would you go for next? Still PAF?

Zwiebel wrote on 08/17/16 at 12:27:45:

Don’t write /me.

ALAKTORN wrote on 08/17/16 at 12:33:36:


This is the third time you're set on an idea, and this is the third time you will be wrong. Why do you call Zwiebel and Zoran your teammates who do the digging, while I have arguably done a lot more digging than for example Zwiebel? What do you think of your good teammate Zoran going hard after your good teammate Zwiebel? What do you think of PAF voting Zwiebel again near the start at D4 and then once again hoping over to someone else, WHO HASN'T EVEN BEEN IN THIS THREAD TODAY? Does that make PAF/Zwiebel more likely buddies or do you think they're not related in that case?

TvK wrote on 08/17/16 at 13:01:41:

You’ve done some good digging D1 and D2, but D3 as I’ve mentioned you looked like you were flip-flopping about and pretty fucking scummy. That D3 read was with Kyle = Mafia in mind, so you’re right that I should do some re-reading, I need to find the motivation to go through D3 again with the new information we have. I don’t know about Zoran going after Timur, the day has just started and we can see how that develops. All PAF’s vote says to me is that John is Town, if PAF is Mafia. I don’t think it says anything about PAF/Timur.

The vote is because like I said, why not? I can definitely change my mind about it. That is how I feel right now, but there are still more than 24 hours in the day I believe.