Okay... I suppose TYG has a low chance for maf since YS was always against him and TYG didn't care much (if he were maf he would've bussed him at one point).

But if you still want to know Tvk, most of my reasons against TYG are these, in a nutshell:
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/14/16 at 04:49:37:


I won't discard TYG-Zwiebel, but I suppose Zwiebel-Kyle and tVk-Kyle are more likely, although that may mean they've done some advanced bussing...

I don't feel like looking too much into Zoran, I feel like there's nothing that makes him scum.

Well since I'm not certain on anything I'm not voting yet. Going to sleep.

kyleb30 wrote on 08/15/16 at 15:16:38:

So in your scenario, maf!me chooses to bus the lost cause, rather than take the available mislynch (town!you) and have the primary D3 heat go to Michele in my place? If you were lynched and flipped town, yes, your wagon would look suspicious as hell, and first and foremost on that list would be Michele. It's a relatively low risk play for maf!me to make, unless you think Michele is my scumbuddy in that scenario, and therefore I avoid it to keep pressure off him? Not sure what you're really thinking, it doesn't make a lot of sense...especially since you mention Zoran describing me/Timur scumbuddies.

Also, you mention that maf!me would have set up the bus on YS, but the first vote of the day on him was from Zoran. The first vote on him that stayed until EoD was...you. Welp, I really set that bus up didn't I?

johnboy81918 wrote on 08/15/16 at 16:30:02:

You made me look. lol

kyleb30 wrote on 08/15/16 at 16:33:15:

What's the contradiction exactly? I said "in your scenario" meaning where you (as town) call me scum. Of course the entire logic to follow is based on that premise, which I don't actually believe (primarily because I'm not scum, but also because I still think there's a good chance you are). I'm just trying to understand wtf your argument is.

I have already said multiple times that you/Michele are m/t. I am not 100% convinced which way it is just yet. However, the way you're presenting this argument is not helping me understand your pov any better.

Can we break this down scenario by scenario, and you tell me where the inconsistencies are?
town!Kyle, maf!John - in this case, I choose the bussing option of YS despite the fact that the wagons were tied and I could possibly have secured a mislynch by voting you. In addition, since Michele started the wagon, I believe he would take more heat than me during D3. If Michele is scumbuddy, maybe I avoid voting you to keep heat off him? If Michele is town, why in the world would I NOT vote for you, based on how much pressure he'd receive D3 if you were mislynched? No matter how I view this, maf!me has a lot more motivation to vote *FOR YOU* than for YS at the time when my vote was cast.
maf!Kyle, maf!John - I vote for YS to bus him, would rather keep you around than him. This seems pretty straightforward.
anything!Kyle, town!John - I vote for YS because I legitimately believe he is the most scummy and I haven't decided if you are maf or town yet. (protip: this is the scenario that makes the most sense to me)

If anyone else wants to weigh in, I'm interested what the rest of you make of this discussion.

Is maf!John likely to vote maf!YS over town!Kyle? Maf!John voting for town!Kyle would have had an easy scapegoat if the mislynch occured - Michele started the wagon and pressured him hard, and got enough followers to have the vote tied before I broke said tie. He would face a lot more of the D3 pressure than anyone else.

If I'm understanding Kyle's argument correctly, maf!John voted for maf!YS rather than taking a relatively low-risk attempt at a mislynch. Somehow, he finds this vote a setup by me to get pressure put on him D3, even though I opened D3 by getting some wagonomics discussion going, including the option that the wagon on Kyle was an attempt by maf!Michele to save YS (indicating that Kyle would be town, in that scenario). If I was protecting scumbuddy!Michele by NOT voting for Kyle on D2, why in the world would I immediately start D3 by presenting that exact situation anyway? If I were maf and Kyle were town, wouldn't it make a *lot* more sense to get the mislynch on Kyle and then blame Michele? I don't see why maf!me would NOT get the mislynch on Kyle and then still go on to blame Michele for the Kyle wagon.

Let's put it this way: *in the scenario* where I am scum, that's an absolutely horrible play by me on D2. So either you think I really am that stupid, or your argument doesn't hold water.

John definitely has a solid defense here right now against Kyle and I feel like I might start be leaning towards PAF being maf. He's never really posted good content and all his other posts seem like excuses for why he was scummy. Another thing I hated about him was his vote on Kyle at eod. That definitely didn't sit right and can easily feel like a YS save attempt. I'll try and look into his connections with YS later.

Sorry, looks like you were getting to it while I was writing my previous post.

Can you also comment on my Michele/Kyle thoughts? I think they are m/t, I think m/m and t/t are both impossible...you can find the reasoning in one of my earlier posts. You left Michele of your list, so clearly you are townreading him completely.

Yeah, I'm town reading Alak a lot. M/t makes a lot of sense your logic seems to work I think. I'm actually close to sold on Kyle I think. I definitely feel like he could have played better for sure, although if Kyle is lynched and flips town I'm definitely putting pressure on you again. Actually what the hell,  the more I think about it kyle being maf actually makes a lot of sense. Alak is definitely town in my eyes, basically for not going after me at all, I definitely would have been easy for maf to go after d2 there and if Alak was also pressuring me a lot that probably would have been enough strong players on the wagon to force the lynch. So if they're tm which they most likely are I believe kyle would 100% be the maf over Alak

Quick post to address John.

After stepping away for a few hours, I'm starting to follow your logic. I think the only 2 mafia connections for John are zwiebel as depicted in zorans scinario, and ALAK who no matter how scummy his play is, his posts scream town to me. I feel comfortable leaving him alone for now and focusing on the 3 of {Zweibel,TvK,PAF}.

John, I'm curious to see where you think the state of the game is? Are you comfortable with the reads people are giving? Who do you think your scum team is now?

Also TYG is like you to read my posts to ALAK about how the scum team can not physically be me/YS/TvK and let me know what you think

kyleb30 wrote on 08/15/16 at 18:57:54:

I see 2 possible scum teams atm:
Kyle + TvK/Timur (based on wagonomics, I'll say TvK is the more likely of these 2 to flip scum...he was on a mislynch wagon and not on a successful wagon, opposite for Timur)
Michele + PAF/Racer/TvK (TvK not being on one of the 2 primary D2 EoD wagons makes him much harder to figure out, so I have to add him here even though I think for this scum team, he is far less likely than PAF/Racer).

Zoran and Lewis are essentially cleared in my eyes. I also still maintain that Kyle/Michele are m/t, I can't envision a scenario where these 2 are the same alignment.

Also what are your thoughts on a Zweibel/ALAK team? Zweibel seems to be supporting ALAK through a ton of his actions (such as his current theory, Zweibel was the first and maybe only one to agree with it D2(I think, I'm in mobile now so it's tough to look back))