I was hoping to see some thoughts from TvK before i post this, but don't want to wait until the very end.
I want to say that my PAF vote was a little play to see what will happen, now to the real stuff...
I have some leads on Zwiebel. I didn't do this earlier since i wanted to see who goes after him 1st. Tvk and then Tyg did a good job.
DAY 1He enters the game last and hits Dan hard right away. Together with Dan he lists me as maybe scum and comments how leone is bad. Interesting how he followed 3 of us on TYG vote in the end.
It was pretty safe to attack Dan at that point since he is already under lot of heat. Dan goes defensive, then i come in. Some discussion with me and then turn around. Suddenly i'm town:
Zwiebel wrote on 08/12/16 at 10:43:20:I like that Zoran isn't going for the easy targets and is putting pressure on people that haven't really received some so far, so while I think he's wrong about some things he gives me Town vibes for now.
At this point he disappears until eod. Here he makes 2 posts in one of which he votes for TYG. If you are maf and have info, this is a perfect play. Especially if TYG is town. Notice that he lists YS as mafia.
DAY 2Again comes last (why wouldn't he, no one attacked him so far) and goes after Tvk and Dan (2 strongest posters). After Tvk made a big post on him, comes pretty weak defense if you ask me.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/13/16 at 15:43:15:He doesn't really bring up many new things, I've tunneled pretty hard on Dan D1, but I already explained why. I tried to get another wagon going on someone I thought had the highest chance of flipping Maf at that point. I did not ignore other people tho as he said. I did not attack them directly, yea, but I tried to get info by asking them to take stance on Dan. While this isn't "grilling", it's another form of getting information. Especially later in the game, when we find out the alignment of more people, stuff like that will become very important.
I will say, it's a rather weak case from TvK, I would think he would have more if he wants to accuse me of being a maf member. Definitely not making me feel better on him.
Then comes TYG:
LewisRichards wrote on 08/13/16 at 17:21:03:Another thought I've had is if I'm mislynched who will look the worst?
Zwiebel: The only person here that seems to be in lists of top players and also on my list.
Conclusion: Very large maf read
Overall conclusion: I'm abandoning my thoughts on TvK and Dan, cleared my head didn't focus on the pressure they gave me and yeah I think their pressure on me was clean and they pressured me too much to be maf imo.
Now if Zwiebel is maf and he knows TYG is town, this is very very bad for him. He immediately goes off on TYG.
TVK post didn't worry him at all, it is just 1 guys opinion. TYG went straight down the middle and response from Zwiebel was very different.
YS CONNECTIONZwiebel is my biggest maf lean at the moment and i think YS might be with him. This YS part is a bit stretched, but i have decided to share it.
Zwiebel went for YS and i think this is our 1st big example of bussing.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/13/16 at 10:53:58:About YS, I think he's just a terrible player, can't tell if bad Maf or bad Town. I wouldn't be opposed to go for him too today, and like Alaktorn already said it could also have implications on kyle/TvK if he flips Maf. I think he needs to post more and his alignment will become super obvious at one point. If he keeps laying low though, I think he's a really good lynch today.
Quote:kyleb30 wrote on 08/11/16 at 11:14:35:YS/Kyle are my biggest Maf reads at the moment.
I actually agree with you,
I think Kyle looks terrible if YS flips Maf. I especially agree with your big post analysis of YS/Kyle connection, the way YS talks about Kyle gives the impression that he tries to make kyle look better than he actually is. YS/Kyle is definitely a high possibility.
But if YS and Kyle are Maf then TYG probably isn't, I'm pretty sure the third one in that combination would be Dan or TvK...I don't think a Maf of YS/Kyle/TYG kills Sportsguy N1...doesn't seem likely
Notice how he hides behind Alak again as he did in D1 on Dan case. If he is sacrifying YS here who is already in big trouble, he is setting up a mislynch chain. Also interesting is the comment about TYG (TMI).
Zwiebel wrote on 08/13/16 at 12:56:15:Jumping on YS, after making a long post about TYG? I feel like you just want to to divert yourself from getting connected to YS.
Why do you think YS is a better lynch than TYG all of a sudden?
Tying to connect Kyle to YS even more, or maybe even divert him from YS to TYG.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/13/16 at 14:16:37:What do you think are the implications if YS flips Maf? Do you agree with Dan that TvK looks bad if that happens? Who do you think is cleared if that happens?
Again trying to get info based on YS flipping Maf.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/13/16 at 15:31:54:@TvK:
If I had to chose 3 names right now I would probably say YS/kyle/Dan or YS/kyle/TvK.
I think YS is more sus than TYG, just for the fact that there are a lot of questions directed at him, he comes and writes when EOD is(so he's clearly here) and then proceeds to ignore all questions at him. Just ignoring everything and trying to slip through won't work. If he does not come up with anything soon, I say we lynch him.
[vote]Yoshistar[/vote]
Completely going in with the plan and clearing his name if YS flips maf or TYG town.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/14/16 at 13:03:05:Michele, you think TYG or YS is a better lynch today? I feel YS is more likely to result in a Maf flip, and I'm concerned about so many people clearly saying that they think YS is Maf, yet trying to push onto TYG for "more info".
I think TYG/YS both being maf is getting more unlikely every moment, and I will have to rethink the alignment of people pushing hard into TYG's direction if he gets lynched and flips Town . I think Yoshistar is the best lynch today. While younggun has not had the best logic, he tried bringing new things to the table, while YS has still to bring any arguments that he's not just copying from someone else.
Making sure YS maf and TYG town will look great for zwiebel. Also this - I'm concerned about so many people clearly saying that they think YS is Maf, yet trying to push onto TYG for "more info". So many people are doing this, really? How many, who?
Up until this point Zwiebel has worked hard to present these reads: YS maf, TYG town, Kyle maf. With votes between YS and TYG there are no problems, but as kyle is a mislynch this is not good for Zwiebel.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/14/16 at 14:53:11:I still think they are both Mafia. I think if YS flips Maf kyle is very likely to be his buddy and they are trying to set each other apart by bussing. They are probably both afraid because they are on the radar and hope to clear one by going after the other. It just strengthens my theory that YS/Kyle is Maf paired with another experienced player. I'm not entirely sure anymore it's only between Dan and TvK for that spot.
Also I think there is only ony Maf between TYG and YS, that's why I think it's crucial we make the right decision today. I will push for a Yoshistar lynch, and I think everyone who does not vote Yoshistar today despite having him as the biggest Maf lean is VERY scummy, no matter the flip of YS.
In this post he confirms that YS and Kyle are both mafia for him. He marks YS as his target and makes a threat to everyone (who have YS as biggest maf lean and pretty much everyone went on YS for most of D2) who think of voting Kyle. If Kyle is voted and flips town, all of Zwiebels work of D2 is gone and he definitely wouldn't look good going into D3.
Zwiebel wrote on 08/14/16 at 15:20:51:Dan, if YS flips Maf, would that make kyle more or less suspicious to you?
Again trying to find what others think of Kyle based on YS maf flip, in order to know how to proceed on D3.
And last but not least:
As i said Zwiebel prepared for YS lynch, but not for Kyle. However YS is still his buddy so some other person would be better. Once Dan started talking about PAF and i voted for him with other people also showing concern, Zwiebel immediately has something to say on PAF
Zwiebel wrote on 08/14/16 at 17:27:56:What the fuck is happening? This is just so resemblent to EoD D1 for PAF
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/12/16 at 15:13:19:Well, I should go to sleep in 20 minutes or so and will wake up after EoD, so I should make my decision now.
However, I feel confused. I'm not sure if I can keep track of everyone's interactions and such, I can't make sense of all possible situations and their consequences.
I'm going to reread more posts to see if I can get somewhere.
But for now, my idea about Dan have been getting better, I'm not risking keeping my vote on him...
[vote]unvote[/vote]
P.A.F.625 wrote on 08/12/16 at 15:45:19:You know what I accept ALAK's challenge.
[vote]Leone[/vote]
If he flips town then my 1st vote on D2 will be on ALAK and I may push on him.
See ya until then...
Says TYG is his biggest scum read, yet continues to randomly vote for Leone because "alaktorn takes responsibility". terrible vote. Now this terrible vote today.
I'm so confused
Hoping for a save after all and putting blame on me D3? I don't think so!
As i said, YS part is a bit stretched, but i definitely think it is possible.
CONCLUSION Zwiebel is my top scum read followed by YS.
Considering that i'm right i will take a wild guess on 3rd person:
johnboy81918 wrote on 08/14/16 at 17:08:07:There's no time for this right now. At this point, either YS needs to go, or the counterwagon on Kyle is gonna take him.
PAF's vote makes me really uneasy about the Kyle wagon. For that reason:
[vote]Yoshistar[/vote]
And maf certainly wouldn't like that. I'm not sure about 3rd, but my gut tells me John.
I will vote YS, just don't want to send in 5th vote so something crazy happens.
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