DansGame wrote on 06/01/16 at 05:03:38:


I wouldn't say more likely. I was just responding to your request for reasons. The thing I'm getting stuck on is that Racer did do something really scummy, so I can easily believe that wagon was highly town-led. I've seen newbie scum have trouble phrasing their statements like town in the same way many times, and I was pretty convinced he was scum, so I didn't have a big issue with everyone else jumping on, and I honestly think it would be a pretty terrible move for mafia if Sam is scum and they were that blatantly launching a late wagon to save him.

[quote author=7978487478796365787B170 link=1464210503/875#895 date=1464764895]Honko wrote on 05/31/16 at 17:41:34:

I made it very clear beforehand that I wouldn't be able to log in for the end of D1. I posted a summary of my thoughts and left my vote on Sam F. I was able to log in once more after that, but nothing interesting had happened since my previous post, so I just poked Zarkov a bit more.

D2 started about 10 minutes after I left for work. Not much I can do about that. The timing is not very good for me.

I don't share my town leans. I think it's bad strategy. If I'm right and they're town, I've just given mafia a good idea of who they should kill. If I'm wrong and they're mafia, I've just confirmed to them that whatever they're doing is working. The only time I think it's a good idea to talk about town leans are when they're actually confirmed or nearly confirmed, either by night actions or by making plays that you can't imagine scum doing, even as a gambit, like if you rooted out the Mafia Roleblocker and got him lynched even though there was no real attention on him or on you beforehand.

Of the people currently voting for Sam or Clark, the people I trust the least are Vinnie, Clark, kyle, Dan, and Yoshistar. I have had scum leans on all of these guys since mid-D1, you can go back and check my big post from D1 if you want to. The fact that people on that list make up the majority of the voters for both Sam and Clark should make it obvious why I mistrust those lynches.

Meanwhile, nobody has tried to join me on Yoshistar, which continues to suggest to me that scum wants to keep attention elsewhere.

J-Cop wrote on 05/31/16 at 23:49:41:

Because I think Yoshistar is more likely to be scum, based both on his posts and the fact that he has never picked up more than a vote or two at a time despite seemingly being an easy target. And because I don't trust the people on Sam or Zarkov right now, as I explained in my post above.

I agree with Darius that we're spending too much time hypothesizing about player connections when not even a single scum has flipped. It's not helpful. Look at the racer lynch; a few people mentioned when they jumped on that lynching racer would give us "more info" based on his connections with other players, but did we actually learn anything from that? The only info we got was that the people who jumped on it looked scummy.

Draw the connections AFTER we find out of someone's mafia, not before. It's not like we have a lack of evidence of scumminess right out in the open in people's posts to discuss.

&b wrote on 05/30/16 at 05:28:39:

That I could find, this was Sam F's last post before the end of Day 1, which came much earlier than Zarkov's last post. Sam's vote stayed on Orange who was obviously not getting lynched at the end of the day. Sportsguy, if you think Zarkov not being on at very EoD was not scummy, then by that logic Sam F's actions are even less so.

J-Cop wrote on 06/01/16 at 07:43:54:

I agree that Lafungo Zarkov is quite possibly m/m. Before the end of today I'll bring up a couple other reasons I think this may be the case.

It's quite fair for people to suggest that we still need to be evaluating people's possible scumminess today and I will do that later as well (such as YS as has been brought up)

How does it allow scum to hedge their bets? Can you give me a hypothetical example of how someone may do that in this situation. If town is active, 48 hour days are plenty long enough to scumhunt and hypothesize.

Darius wrote on 06/01/16 at 08:56:07:


And isn't discussing whether hypothesising is good/bad for town just beating around the bush to an even greater extent?

I won't get into too many details but I think it is an easy way to produce a lot of content while providing a huge range of conflicting reads that don't actually give people anything to go on.

And if you think 48 hours is long enough, I would direct you to the relative lack of content from a lot of players here in the first half of this day.

Tim: yes, and I'd certainly like to stop now. Are you going to answer my question about not voting?

I'd like to point out 2 more things:

1. If we lynch someone today who, should they turn up mafia has a high likelihood of a m/m relationship with someone else, it allows us to effectively use our even-night town vig shot.

2. There are inexperienced players in this game and as has been pointed out before the mafia knows which inexperienced players are town and can redirect heat onto these players. I believe that happened with Racer and might again be happening with YS or Sam. Again, for reasons I've gone over I think a maf Zarkov lynch would effectively clear YS and make Sam also appear very town.

Back to jury duty now.

Darius wrote on 06/01/16 at 09:12:13:

The relative lack of content from a lot of players is their fault, not mine, and they should be able to step up their scumhunting and at least take 5 minutes to read my initial long Zarkov theory post and form an opinion. I think people who are involved could vouch for me that I didn't leave any important posts out from the EoD and if I did, they could quote them here.  Otherwise, I did the heavy lifting on the EoD front and I don't think it's too much to ask of people to form an opinion. I'll beI'll be interested to hear Timothy's EoD analysis.

Regarding hypothesizing: I like what Dan has done.  Call it a waste of time if you want, but it could end up saving us a lot of time on D3 if we lynch Zarkov and he flips maf.


I still don't like that Honko is trying to talk everyone out of lynching Zarkov or Sam, and I'm surprised that no one else has taken issue with this.  Zarkov is our best lynch candidate for D2, regardless of how scummy Yoshistar may look to you right now.  We get way more information out of a Zarkov lynch since there have been far more connections between him and other players.

Why did that take you so long, J-Cop?