DansGame wrote on 05/14/16 at 14:02:43:Robertvz wrote on 05/14/16 at 12:34:39:Vinnie927 wrote on 05/14/16 at 12:31:59:And Brett, if Dan's town then we'll ignore you unless another lead incriminates you.
I'm hardly saying Dan's mafia, I want him to explain why he thinks NL is the right idea. He claims in the games he's played they don't lynch, I'd like to see that. The way you're jumping on my lead looks a lot worse for you than it does for me, just letting you know that, scum.
I've never played any mafia games on a forum, I played mafia a lot back in high school. Our rules were different though, we played that the town has the option not to vote at the end of the day, but roles were not revealed when someone died. If you wanted to kill someone you had to make a "formal accusation" and that person was individually voted on - a majority of votes and they died. The town was allowed to vote on as many people as they wanted at the end of the day.
We played with one detective and one doctor plus two or three mafia depending on how many people we had (no special mafia roles). The detective wound up holding a lot of power and games came down to people claiming to be the detective and whether or not you chose to believe that person. We never randomly lynched on day 1 because it was about giving the detective enough time to figure out who's who and not accidentally lynching him randomly. Any lynches we did on day 1 would have been based on an actual tell based on how people normally played.
I guess in this type of game it might make more sense to lynch first day, but can we talk through it so we can make sense of it for the current "no lynch" people like myself? We have 22 people and 6 are mafia. Chances are we won't randomly lynch someone from the mafia and what is gained from that really? Most votes on the first day are totally random, if the mafia knows that the most suspected person isn't a mafia member, then they can vote for whoever they want knowing that a mafia member won't go down. If a mafia member is the most suspected person and looks like they are getting lost, then a mafia member would know that they are likely dead meat anyway and the best thing they could do would be to vote for them, right? Brett, you immediately voted for Fank on your very first post without any discussion having happened yet, does that make more sense than waiting to see how the day unfolds before casting a vote?
I'm still gathering my thoughts about who might be mafia. Will post again in a few probably.
Looking back on voting logs earlier holds a lot of merit. For example, say two wagons form and one's lynched and flips mafia. The other wagon looks clearer because the chance of two scum wagons forming on day 1 is super rare. Not impossible, but improbable. This can also be made clearer as more people are lynched/killed and more roles are filled in. For example, if someone had 3 mafia votes on them at EoD and wasn't lynched, it's likely that person is town. There's more information to look into than just saying "oh well we lynched X and they were town", that's what I'm getting at.
You're right about there being more than 50% chance to lynch town today. Day 1 wagons are always the hardest to get right due to the fact we don't have any night info, or past lynches, or anything really to go off of. That doesn't mean we shouldn't lynch. No lynching does hold more merit in live games, I was unaware of your past history and you made it sound like you had played forum games. There are some forum games where no lynch day 1 is viable but it's not common at all and trust me that lynching today is going to always be the best play.
However you're totally wrong on my fank vote. Yes I voted him, but the very beginning first page posts of any forum game are always joke/troll posts and votes just to get people checked into the game and giving them a comfortable entrance. It's just kinda how the ball always gets rolling in games and there's really nothing more to it. Fank knows this and tbh anyone here with any kind of forum mafia experience (even as little as one game) can vouch for it. If it makes you feel better I'll [vote]unvote[/vote].
I actually think you're probably town Dan, around 90% I'd say. I know you have your logic and you believe in it and the way you go about it makes you very likely to be town. Thanks for the explanation. By the way questions about lynch mechanics should probably be PMed to the moderator instead of addressed publicly.
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