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Poll Poll
Question: What do you think is the best WR of 2015? NBT Time Trial

PAL DP1 5-lap: 1'10.30  
  2 (15.3%)
PAL MC2 flap: 12.81  
  0 (0%)
PAL KB1 flap: 9.07  
  1 (7.6%)
PAL CI2 flap: 12.63  
  1 (7.6%)
PAL BC3 flap: 17.51  
  2 (15.3%)
NTSC KB1 5-lap: 45.76  
  4 (30.7%)
NTSC VL1 5-lap: 47.60  
  2 (15.3%)
NTSC VL1 flap: 9.23  
  1 (7.6%)




Total votes: 13
« Last Modified by: KVD on: 03/03/16 at 02:49:13 »

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WR of the year 2015! (Read 239 times)
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WR of the year 2015!
03/03/16 at 02:41:01
 
I usually post these right at the beginning of a new year, but I kinda forgot with all the AGDQ shenanigans at the beginning of my year. Better late than never though.  Smiley

Last year's winner was the NTSC MC1 5-lap: 55"97 by Sami Çetin.

For this year's poll I've given you what I figured were the best 8 options, though for the sake of completion I've listed them all in this message. For me it wasn't crystal clear which ones should make the list. Aron's KB1 might very well have been more impressive than his DP1, I just don't really know. So if you think WR's not listed in the poll deserve your vote, please indicate in the topic which WR has gotten your vote instead.

PAL
DP1 5-lap 1'10"30 Aron Langerak
MC2 flap 12"81 Karel van Duijvenboden
DP2 5-lap 1'25"39 Aron Langerak
KB1 5-lap 47"79 Aron Langerak
KB1 flap 9"07 Karel van Duijvenboden
CI2 5-lap 1'04"67 Aron Langerak
CI2 flap 12"63 Karel van Duijvenboden
BC3 flap 17"51 Karel van Duijvenboden
KB2 5-lap 54"78 Aron Langerak

NTSC
KB1 5-lap 45"76 Tyler Worley
VL1 5-lap 47"60 Guillaume Leviach
VL1 flap 9"23 Guillaume Leviach
DP3 flap 14"34 Guillaume Leviach
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« Last Edit: 03/03/16 at 05:47:07 by KVD »  

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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #1 - 03/03/16 at 02:53:19
 
All the pal choices are Dutch #Rigged  Roll Eyes
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #2 - 03/03/16 at 03:14:38
 
My vote will be very selfish but I have picked the VL1 lap, considering the surrealistic amount of time it took to get how to reach regular 9"2x laps, and for how long the previous WR held by GAS had lasted.
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Aron Langerak wrote on 08/06/17 at 13:47:24:
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #3 - 03/03/16 at 04:21:41
 
On NTSC it's definitely my pick of the bunch, especially for the reasons listed and simply going by how insane it looks.

On PAL (and overall) I'm going to be selfish as well (jeez, we're such a bunch of narcissists*  Undecided), I think I can objectively vouch for BC3 flap being one of the most extreme WRs I've ever driven.

All we need now is Tyler and Aron to vote for themselves too.  Grin

*though in my defence I only voted for WRs driven by others in previous polls

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« Last Edit: 03/03/16 at 04:55:01 by KVD »  

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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #4 - 03/03/16 at 05:20:50
 
I would have voted for Aron's CI2 5lap but since that was on the poll I went for Karel's CI2 lap instead, both those times seem ridiculous to me. CI2 is prob my fav course so I was drawn to those and I also don't know enough about the other tracks to appreciate how good the times are for the other wr's.

Also of Aron's 5 pal wr's only one makes the poll choices but all 4 of Karel's pal wr's make the poll, I guess there is some advantage to being the guy who creates the thread Wink
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #5 - 03/03/16 at 05:32:50
 
Haha fair enough. Well just to put that into perspective though, what if I tell you that the CI2 flap that you voted for is probably the least brutal of my laps listed in that poll....so I wasn't sure which one I should have left out (in favour of some of the 5-laps). I know it looks kinda bad, but you and I both know that 4 out of 4 and 1 out of 5 are not actually statistically different enough to talk about a significant effect. With such low numbers it could still very well be they were selected properly. If Aron sees it differently, we'll soon learn I guess.  Smiley

Aron's CI2 5-lap was an option before actually, but I swapped it last second for NTSC VL1 5-lap, since that looked pretty damn sick in the replay (with a much harder strat moreover).

In a perfect world this MB would not limit polls to 8 choices, because it does indeed create a bias by limiting which WRs can get votes.
But whatever, it's not an official title anywayz. That said I would 'count' your vote towards Aron's CI2 5-lap, not my flap.
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« Last Edit: 03/03/16 at 06:17:38 by KVD »  

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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #6 - 03/03/16 at 06:14:23
 
Actually I was very, very impressed with his KB2 5-lap WR back then as well, as I thought Guillaume was in a league of his own there. But when I stated that it might be one of his best PRs now, Aron laughed and said it was nowhere near that. I guess I don't understand KB2 5-lap that well, I really struggled to get sub 55 and gave up in the end.
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #7 - 03/03/16 at 06:28:19
 
Well given there were 13 wr's to choose from and Aron had 5 of them. If selecting 8 wr's randomly then the probability that 1 or fewer of Arons wr's get selected is approx 3%. So from this I can reasonably assume with a high degree of certainty that you view Aron's wr's as mostly shit. Also the probability of all 4 of Karels wr's making the poll if randomly drawn is just under 10%, so Karel obviously has a high opinion of his own wr's.
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #8 - 03/03/16 at 06:39:44
 
The key word here is sub sampling. Those 4 WRs happen to be quite impressive ones (if I say so myself), but it's purely by chance. If we were to insert all WRs into the equation (thus selecting from the 80 possible), you'll find that the contribution I will have to a top-8 would be purely according to proportion (maybe even less). Just to illustrate, here would be my top 8 overall WRs (regardless of year or driver).

PAL MC1 5-lap 57"90
PAL MC1 flap 11"23
PAL CI1 flap 10"55
PAL BC3 flap 17"51
PAL VL2 flap 8"70
NTSC MC1 5-lap 55"97
NTSC MC1 flap 10"83
NTSC KB2 flap 9"99

It seems Sami has the lion's share here. That is not the result of a selection bias towards him though, it merely reflects his approach of completely no-lifing one specific course (*cough*MC1), thus logically resulting in the strongest WRs.

A similar (but opposite) mechanism may be at work with Aron WRs, in the sense that he could be targeting the low hanging fruit (5-lap WRs on courses that are not overplayed). His BC1 5-lap counters that though, as that definitely is one of the most contested charts in the game.

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« Last Edit: 03/03/16 at 07:19:06 by KVD »  

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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #9 - 03/03/16 at 06:44:20
 
Clearly it is KB1 45.76 which beat a 5 year old previous WR.   Grin
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #10 - 03/03/16 at 06:45:38
 
So we both agree that it wasn't random and that you are firmly of the belief that your wr's in 2015 were 'better' than Aron's wr's in 2015 (at least better than 4 of the 5 he drove anyway). You might be right, I'm not of a level to really be able to judge just how good one wr is compared to another (other than looking at what the 2nd best times are in relation).
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #11 - 03/03/16 at 06:48:43
 
Yeah, in the sense that I really tried to select them objectively, purely based on how strong I perceive them to be. I never said I was firmly in the belief though. As I wrote in my first post:

"For me it wasn't crystal clear which ones should make the list."

It could be that I'm systematically underestimating his performances (or overestimating mine).* That's all far less interesting of a discussion than which WR is the best WR of 2015 though.  Grin

*If so, I apologize to Aron. He knows I respect his performances though, his consistency and perseverance are truly admirable. Some of his times I will most likely never beat.
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« Last Edit: 03/03/16 at 07:13:04 by KVD »  

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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #12 - 03/03/16 at 06:50:46
 
^you got my vote  Grin
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #13 - 03/03/16 at 08:15:48
 
My Top 3:
1. NTSC KB1 5-lap (Tyler)
2. PAL KB1 f-lap (Karel)
3. NTSC VL1 f-lap (Guillaume) and PAL BC3 f-lap (Karel)

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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #14 - 03/03/16 at 08:38:24
 
VL1 5lap NTSC by Guillaume Leviach is insane!
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #15 - 03/03/16 at 17:48:45
 
Thanks Moll! It's funny.. I choose my WR but if there was an option to vote for my CI2 I would have Wink That was my best last year Smiley
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Re: WR of the year 2015!
Reply #16 - 03/03/16 at 23:04:06
 
I should have left it in the poll. Smiley Smiley
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