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World Cup 2014 Pool (Read 6007 times)
Antistar
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #250 - 07/16/14 at 01:01:50
 
All that I can say is I'd have really prefered to bear Timur by a single point margin somewhere else. Smiley
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Aron Langerak wrote on 08/06/17 at 13:47:24:
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The feeling of being a world champion is intoxicating, and I didn't want to ever not be the world champion again. Then I realized it didn't matter that much since I had nothing more to prove and achieved my most important goal(s).
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #251 - 07/16/14 at 05:32:03
 
no control wrote on 07/15/14 at 03:17:17:
For the 2nd round it may be good to separate 90 minutes from ET. Bonus points for guessing if the game will end in ET or on penalties.

Great job and thank you for organizing this  Smiley.

Zoran

I also agree that we should separate the 90 minutes from extra time. Look at the Belgium vs. USA game in the last 16 stage of the competition. People who predicted 2-1 surely hadn't anticipated a 0-0 scoreline at the end of 90 minutes, with three goals in extra time. They received the full 5 points while people who predicted 0-0 received no points. Personally, I'd be in favour of keeping all predictions to the 90 minutes, with a bonus point for choosing the team that wins in extra time or penalties.

I'll illustrate what I mean with this example from the Belgium vs USA game from this competition:
Belgium - USA 0-0 (Belgium win in ET or penalties) -> 6 points
Belgium  - USA 0-0 (USA win in ET or penalties) -> 5 points
Belgium -  USA 2-2 (Belgium win in ET or penalties) -> 3 points
Belgium - USA  1-1 (USA win in ET or penalties) -> 2 points
Belgium -USA 2-0 (1 point awarded for correct winner)


Just a suggestion, I don't really have any problem with the current format. Thanks again for running such an awesome competition.  Smiley
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #252 - 07/16/14 at 15:17:09
 
Congratz Patrick, you really predicted good and reasonable! Smiley

For me, 2nd place, again  Smiley
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #253 - 07/16/14 at 17:48:51
 
1 A
2 B/C
3 A
4 C I think it promotes luck at the top because the top people will receive nonzero points in a similar number of total matches, but they'll fall on different sides of the bell curve of lucky guesses. Of course, I say this because I got the most 2pts.
6 B
7 B
8 A
9 B
10 B
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #254 - 07/20/14 at 03:08:17
 
All right, I've looked at the feedback you all gave. This will also serve as a memo to my future self. Hey doc, have you finally found yourself a nice girl to maybe settle down with, or are you still single, you pathetic loser?

First of all, as promised, three people who responded will get to participate for free in the next pool. They are: Brett, TvK and theyounggun! Congratulations, you will be exempt from paying an entry fee, should I decide to introduce one! (But I can't promise that.)


Quote:
2. What do you think of the site I put the results on?
a) What site?
b) It's redundant, the posts are sufficient
c) It's a nice addition
d) It could be improved, by ...

It seems the answers are divided between b and c. I'll see if I can think of a way to make it more useful, otherwise I'll save myself the trouble of having to upload stuff every day.


Quote:
3. With the way this pool works, you have to send in predictions multiple times. Alternatively, you'd be betting on matches for which you don't know which teams are involved. What is your opinion on this?
a) I like the current system, so having to submit multiple times is a necessary evil.
b) Just abolish the knockout stage, stop after the group matches.
c) I'd prefer a system where you make predictions for the entire knockout stage in one go.
d) I'd prefer a system where you make predictions for the entire tournament, right at the start.
e) I'd prefer a system where you'd get points for predicting the teams, rather than (just) the results.
f) I'd prefer something else, namely ...

With one exception, everyone went for a, so that's the way it's going to be.


Quote:
4. What do you think of the ratio 5/2 for correctly predicting the score/winner?
a) Nice
b) A correct score should get more points (relatively), e.g. 3/1, 10/3, ...
c) A correct score should get fewer points (relatively), e.g. 2/1, 5/3, ...

This one's very interesting, with more than one advocate for each answer. There was also the suggestion to go for 5/3/2 (3 points for correct goal difference) which got support and 3/2/1 as well.
Considering the roughly even divide between b and c I'm tempted to go down the middle and stick with what we have.
The 5/3/2 system is interesting; at the bottom I've put down what the final standings would have been with this system. Personally, I'm concerned though that this might incite people to predict more conservatively; a one-goal difference seems more likely to me than anything else. RvZ for instance, who mostly predicted quite conservatively, suddenly gets 10 points more than Tyler. I for one would like to see more variation in predictions.

This could use some more discussion!


Quote:
5. What do you think of the point system with regard to penalties?
a) I still don't get how it works
b) It's too complicated; keep it simple stupid
c) It's not fair
d) It's good

Unanimously d was selected, but two people suggested to exclude extra time. The extra point could then go to people who correctly predict the winner, as robman60 put forward. I find this an interesting suggestion.

Again, this could use more input!


Quote:
6. What would you say about giving more points for matches toward the end of the tournament, to keep things exciting?
a) No!
b) Something like double points for the final
c) Something like double points for the entire knockout stage
d) Something like an increasing multiplier (not necessarily starting with 1): group stage -> round of 16 -> quarterfinals -> semifinals -> final(s)
e) Other, namely ...

Various answers here. Option d got some support, but the problem I see with it is that it could make things complicated, especially if you wouldn't go for the most basic 1->2->3->4->5, which I would say would lead more to chaos than a healthy dose of excitement. I put option d in to see if it might get massive support, but it didn't in my opinion.
There were a couple of votes for b though, so I think I will give that one a go.


Quote:
7. How do you like the random pool?
a) I'd like the ability to make some adjustments to a certain limit, so that it's not a complete lottery.
b) No adjustments!

No contest; random will be random!


Quote:
8. What do you think of the number of goals that the RNG gave? (The set average was 1.2 per team)
a) Nice
b) Too many
c) Too few
d) I'd prefer another RNG, namely...

Answer a hands down.


Quote:
9. How do you like the range of numbers (100-999) you can choose from?
a) It's fine
b) I'd prefer 10-99 (so there's a bigger chance of getting the absolute best, for instance)
c) I want to take 159945
d) No limits! [Actually, I would still limit it to positive integers of at most 9 digits]

Conflicting answers here, with two people going for b and two for c (which would imply d, I'd say). Considering the ongoing interest there has been during the pool for what the best number was, I'm very much inclined to go with b.






Final standings if the 5/3/2 system had been used (actual standings on the left for comparison)


Main pool

5/2 system                                5/3/2 system

 1. Patrick Hewson           122           1. Patrick Hewson           134
 2. Robert van Zanten        114           2. Robert van Zanten        130
    Tyler Worley             114           3. Tyler Worley             120
 4. Jake Walter              106           4. Alex Penev               115
 5. Paul Tanney              103           5. Jake Walter              112
 6. Alex Penev               101           6. Paul Tanney              109
 7. Trystan Pugh              94           7. Dan Hoernemann           106
    Dan Hoernemann            94           8. Brett Edwards            103
    Brett Edwards             94           9. Trystan Pugh             102
10. Kevin McAteer             93              Kevin McAteer            102
    David Moll                93          11. David Moll               100
12. Tom van Kessel            92          12. Stefan Glosby             97
13. Stefan Glosby             91              Zoran Tintor              97
14. Zoran Tintor              89          14. Manuel Babjar             94
15. Manuel Babjar             84          15. Robert Lee                93
16. Robert Lee                83              Tom van Kessel            93
17. Chris Clark               82          17. Chris Clark               92
    Karel van Duijvenboden    82              Karel van Duijvenboden    92
19. Steve Meakings            78          19. Guillaume Leviach         85
20. Djibril Aatif             76          20. Djibril Aatif             84
21. David Roldan              75              Florian Chollet           84
22. Guillaume Leviach         74          22. Steve Meakings            83
23. Timur Ahmad               73          23. David Roldan              82
    Vincent Tolhuis           73          24. Vincent Tolhuis           81
25. Florian Chollet           72          25. Timur Ahmad               77
26. Lewis Richards            66          26. Lewis Richards            70
27. Robert Szabo              63          27. Robert Szabo              69
28. Scott Abbey               46          28. Scott Abbey               50




Random pool

5/2 system                                  5/3/2 system

 1. Trystan Pugh                94           1. Trystan Pugh               105
 2. Manuel Babjar               92           2. Manuel Babjar               98
 3. Jake Walter                 73           3. Jake Walter                 84
    Robert Lee                  73              Robert Lee                  84
 5. Steve Meakings              69           5. Steve Meakings              80
 6. Robert Szabo                67           6. Florian Chollet             75
 7. David Moll                  66           7. Guillaume Leviach           74
 8. Frederick Hutchington       65              Jonathan Toole-Charignon    74
 9. Jonathan Toole-Charignon    64              Robert Szabo                74
10. Florian Chollet             63          10. Frederick Hutchington       72
11. Chris Clark                 62          11. David Moll                  71
12. Guillaume Leviach           60              Chris Clark                 71
    Dan Hoernemann              60          13. Kevin McAteer               68
    Patrick Hewson              60          14. Dan Hoernemann              66
15. Kevin McAteer               59          15. Patrick Hewson              65
16. Tyler Worley                58          16. Callum Douglas              63
17. Sam Fairless                57              Tyler Worley                63
18. Lewis Richards              56              Sam Fairless                63
19. Callum Douglas              54          19. Aron Langerak               61
    Stefan Glosby               54              Tom van Kessel              61
21. Tom van Kessel              53              Stefan Glosby               61
    Timur Ahmad                 53          22. Brett Edwards               60
23. Aron Langerak               52          23. Lewis Richards              59
    Djibril Aatif               52              Djibril Aatif               59
    Robert van Zanten           52          25. Timur Ahmad                 57
26. Andy Lundeen                51              David Roldan                57
27. Ben Allen                   50          27. Andy Lundeen                56
    Brett Edwards               50          28. Ben Allen                   55
29. David Roldan                49              Zoran Tintor                55
30. Joe Bernier                 48              Robert van Zanten           55
31. Zoran Tintor                46          31. Joe Bernier                 53
32. Karel van Duijvenboden      39          32. Karel van Duijvenboden      44
    Dave Tandy                  39          33. Jon Coppernoll              41
34. Jon Coppernoll              38              Dave Tandy                  41
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Thomas van Leeuwen
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #255 - 07/20/14 at 03:33:20
 
Quote:
The 5/3/2 system is interesting; at the bottom I've put down what the final standings would have been with this system. Personally, I'm concerned though that this might incite people to predict more conservatively; a one-goal difference seems more likely to me than anything else. RvZ for instance, who mostly predicted quite conservatively, suddenly gets 10 points more than Tyler. I for one would like to see more variation in predictions.

I agree with the 5/3/2 scoring system in theory, but I think your concern is a legitimate one. I think we'd see a lot of 1-0, 2-1, and 2-0 predictions if that were introduced. People would be reluctant to place a margin of more than two goals between the teams. I believe it would be a bad idea as it would lead people to predict tactically rather than trying to actually predict the correct scoreline.

In conclusion I think it's good in theory but I'd avoid it as this scoring system would undoubtedly influence people's predictions.
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #256 - 07/23/14 at 06:34:37
 
Yay I get to participate for free!!! Cheesy

I prefer the 5/2 system because trying to pick the exact score is more exciting than picking conservative,  although I think I would like something like a 3/1 system where your still encouraged to go for the actual score but if you get it wrong it's not quite as big of a deal.
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #257 - 07/23/14 at 08:07:56
 
LewisRichards wrote on 07/23/14 at 06:34:37:
Yay I get to participate for free!!! Cheesy

I prefer the 5/2 system because trying to pick the exact score is more exciting than picking conservative,  although I think I would like something like a 3/1 system where your still encouraged to go for the actual score but if you get it wrong it's not quite as big of a deal.

In the case you've specified, an incorrect score is actually punished more harshly. 5/2 is equal to 2.5/1, which is smaller than 3/1. I think 5/2 is perfect, personally.
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #258 - 07/23/14 at 11:40:51
 
It is punished more harshly, but it is still only 2 points. Say Jimmy is facing Steve for 10 matches on 3/1 system,  Jimmy gets them all perfect and say Steve gets them all right but not the score Jimmy will have 30 points and steve will have 10 with 5/2 Jimmy will have 50 and Steve will have 20 so although the 3/1 ratio is harder the points will be closer in the end
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Re: World Cup 2014 Pool
Reply #259 - 07/23/14 at 12:08:08
 
LewisRichards wrote on 07/23/14 at 11:40:51:
It is punished more harshly, but it is still only 2 points. Say Jimmy is facing Steve for 10 matches on 3/1 system,  Jimmy gets them all perfect and say Steve gets them all right but not the score Jimmy will have 30 points and steve will have 10 with 5/2 Jimmy will have 50 and Steve will have 20 so although the 3/1 ratio is harder the points will be closer in the end

You're missing the point- it's the ratio of points that matters, not the number of points. You could turn 5/2 into 10/4, 50/20, 500/200 and it would make no difference to the competition, the standings would be exactly the same.
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