Darius wrote on 01/30/11 at 10:55:20:Sword, my concern is that Day 2 will be people repeating how no lynch is still a good idea. I just don't want no lynch to be a viable argument for the rest of the game because it gives scum an easy ride by letting them know they can just push it instead of conducting some genuine scumhunting. I think the consensus of the town is starting to lean towards NL precisely because most people have been lazy and just saying 'yeah, it's a shot in the dark to lynch'. If we no lynch today, nobody should be allowed to get away with that argument tomorrow, but I bet some people are still going to try it if not much happens tonight.
I'm pretty confident that noone will be inforcing a no lynch tomorrow. There would be no reason to. We are only doing this on day 1 because we don't have any leads and it would be the biggest gamble all game, and the odds are completely against us.
It won't be a viable arguement for the rest of the game. I understand it doesn't tell us much about the players by no lynching, but are you willing it put the sake of the game at risk just "so we can have more information for those with power abilities"? As MVT said, most people with powers are either dead set on who they are going to target because either a) grudge or b) hunch. Day 1 is mostly junk and fluff, and I don't think a lynch would realy change the views of people as much as you claim it would.
Scum won't ride on it all game either. Scum hate no lynch. About what you said on scum having the first move, that is overexaggerating again. Having the first move doesn't matter, since they are already off to a bad start.
If we lynch today, the three possible outcomes are available:
Lynch a Mafia (2/9 - Low Possibility, and would be extremely benefitial for town)
Lynch a Jester (2/9 - Low Possibility, and would be extremely bad for town)
Lynch a Town (5/9 - Highest Possibility, and would be absolutely terrible for town)
A Town Lynch is benefitial to Mafia. Mafia have a 5/7 chance of hitting a town, and a 2/7 chance of hitting a Jester, but this is still partially good for them, as they can afford to lynch since they are far more likely to hit a Town than a Jester.
A Mafia Lynch is benefitial to Town. Town have a 2/9 chance of hitting someone that lowers the Mafia count. Town has a 5/9 chance of fucking up and lynching Town, and a 2/9 chance of lynching a Jester and giving them the win.
Therefore a lynch on Day 1 is way more benefitial to the Mafia over anyone else. They have the best odds. I think those who are against no lynch are more likely mafia than anyone else. Do you see how bad the odds are?
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