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Mario Kart >> Super Mario Kart >> WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese players!
https://www.mariokart64.com/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1549556543

Message started by KVD on 02/07/19 at 08:22:23

Title: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese players!
Post by KVD on 02/07/19 at 08:22:23

I remember that the discovery of the Japanese SMK community (or at least a representation of it) in 2004 was quite a big deal for all of us around back then. Their way of using and thinking about NBT (they actually were New Boost Techniques back then haha) was quite a bit ahead of us at the time, it seemed. I also recall that the top Japanese players at the time, Monchuck and donnki (nicknames, no doubt) created a page/map for every track where they detailed the best boost spots and trajectories. And on top of that they forecasted which times they expected to be possible when applying these strats. Of course I don't know if these times were meant to represent theoretical limits (TAS based), human limits or perhaps even goal times [smiley=lolk.gif], but needless to say that part of it really interested me, whatever was the case. The only times I really remember them predicting were sub 56 and sub 11 on MC1 at a time when our site records were still sitting at high 57 and 11"2x. I figured these were based on the famous 55”95 – 10”99 TAS at the time.

Anyway, I tried to dig up these pages again to see what their predictions were (their MB is still linked on the Players' Site), but sadly the track specific links are now dead. So I went the Waybackmachine route…and that archive is awesome as I succeeded in finding them that way! :D

I have snapshotted all of the track pages here, some haven’t been captured properly and sadly it appears MC3 hasn’t been snapshotted at all. The pages can all be seen here: https://web.archive.org/web/20041102104419/http://f31.aaacafe.ne.jp/~smkt/mc1.htm
For other tracks, replace the track code accordingly.
As for the boxes above the tracks with the star rating, I believe the first one denotes difficulty of track/strat (0 to 5 stars….KB1 being 5*, jeez they defo got that right) and the second one denotes the level of the WR (at that time). They were aware of our WRs early on btw, that much is clear from reading their MB.

Personally I think that they had excellent vision for the time (for some tracks in particular: MC1, GV1, BC2, VL1, VL2), but of course at others they were way off and didn't foresee all the strategy changes that were ahead. I also remember their CI2 predictions to be much more bold (like 12”00 flap or something), but that must have been a later uncaptured update. In any case make sure to check out GV1, they were right on the money for that one and then some! :o That one made me chuckle quite a bit. :)

So, here we go:

MC1
http://i.imgur.com/LvFOFGM.png
Older shot with star ratings, but slower times: http://i.imgur.com/bczr83c.png

DP1
http://i.imgur.com/lGV3ZgE.png

GV1
http://i.imgur.com/ZcZH7N0.png
11"65 baby! ;D [smiley=lolk.gif]

BC1
http://i.imgur.com/OrHiozl.png

MC2
http://i.imgur.com/91pCGSs.png
Older shot with star ratings, but slower times: http://i.imgur.com/2kIieiu.png

CI1
http://i.imgur.com/oBtjya0.png

GV2
http://i.imgur.com/lm23DkM.png

DP2
http://i.imgur.com/nxOusCb.png

BC2
http://i.imgur.com/XlpvtJK.png

MC3
Nope :(

KB1
http://i.imgur.com/asRIRIQ.png

CI2
http://i.imgur.com/GACg80y.png

VL1
http://i.imgur.com/eOXBkCV.png

BC3
http://i.imgur.com/KKiKSQK.png

MC4
http://i.imgur.com/gbGiYM2.png

DP3
http://i.imgur.com/5KzKWnk.png

KB2
http://i.imgur.com/XbWqR0w.png

GV3
http://i.imgur.com/8jBgQRY.png

VL2
http://i.imgur.com/mpW31KQ.png

RR
http://i.imgur.com/5zewhxr.png

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by Sami de la SMK on 02/07/19 at 08:41:42

Thanks for sharing this Karel, it's nice to see these again after a long time and larger images. It was interesting some of their theoretical times like MC1, GV1, VL2. But I guess we still all had a lot to learn on the other courses. They had been doing NBT on MC1 as early as 1993 so they probably had quite a good direction on where to go even if they were more active on MC1.

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by Antistar on 02/07/19 at 11:51:21

Many thanks for your huge work there Karel, all this is literally fascinating! Some of the predictions are so close to reality (not to mention GV1 which is just INSANE), what a mindfuck.

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by Sumner21 on 02/07/19 at 13:37:21

Nice post,
If they were doing nbt back in 93 was this with a pad mod or 3rd party pad does anyone know?
I believe they seem to be predicted ultimate times since most are a bit slower than WR generally, GV3 13"40 typo 14"40, BC2 misjudged thwomp luck maybe or another mistake.

But VL2 interests me since (essentially nnbt) they have a pretty accurate lap time but faster 5lap, do they think you can use the flap strat somehow or is it another typo.
Has anyone every tried a 5lap shortest strat here, even if its TAS?

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by Dan H on 02/07/19 at 21:11:09

GV1 lap is fake anyways. 11"65 never happened

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by Sami de la SMK on 02/08/19 at 01:45:14

40667E7D76612122130 wrote:

No pad mod, all original pads. It was just the one NBT at the big sand cut which you overturn to generate. It isn't the optimal racing line as we can do with NBT controllers, but they got to 58 seconds this way. Nori did a sub 58 with 2 NBT per lap and normal controller last year. They have generally never been interested in fastlaps as much though I am encouraging the active players to do so now. Yeah I saw the GV3 that's definitely a typo on the lap probably as you suggested. The 5-lap for VL2 is no where near maxed on our current route due to the sheer shape of it. Ha Nyan did try something years ago when I visited him in Japan but couldn't get anywhere.

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by KVD on 02/08/19 at 04:30:13

Yeah VL2 5-lap is just a more daring estimate than most others, I guess they also recognized how this one is harder to max out. Of course there is also a bias in which track they personally tested most; VL2 may have been one of their favourites, who knows. GV3 flap is defo a typo though.

I definitely notice such bias in the predictions we made in the past too, they tend to be more accurate for tracks that we already overplayed.

This is a French forum topic in which we predicted (PAL) WRs (not limits), also from 2004 onwards. :)
http://www.ffsmk.org/forum/index.php?topic=707.0

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by Chris on 02/08/19 at 07:25:21

I like how they developed strats that no one used (mostly slower) but also had the idea of 6-boosting MC4 :)

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by ScouB on 02/08/19 at 10:48:18

MC2 is quite impressive too as they already figured out the LB and basically the current strat being used. the 1'01"50 mark had been beaten only like 1 year ago.

Title: Re: WR predictions from 2004 by top Japanese playe
Post by SMKChamp on 03/05/19 at 20:47:55

The Japanese had a video game tips show in 1992-1993 that showed them how to countersteer and generate the miniboost on DP1 and MC1. You can verify these boosts in the official Japanese guide to SMK from 1993 as well.

7D4F43472E0 wrote:

[quote author=40667E7D76612122130 link=1549556543/0#3 date=1549575441]Nice post,
If they were doing nbt back in 93 was this with a pad mod or 3rd party pad does anyone know?
I believe they seem to be predicted ultimate times since most are a bit slower than WR generally, GV3 13"40 typo 14"40, BC2 misjudged thwomp luck maybe or another mistake.

But VL2 interests me since (essentially nnbt) they have a pretty accurate lap time but faster 5lap, do they think you can use the flap strat somehow or is it another typo.
Has anyone every tried a 5lap shortest strat here, even if its TAS?